COP29 | 2024 on track to be hottest year on record: WMO report

The year 2024 is on course to become the hottest year ever recorded, with global temperatures reaching unprecedented levels, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warned.

According to a report released on the opening day of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, the January-September global mean surface temperature was 1.54 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

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This alarming surge, driven by an intense El Nino event and rising greenhouse gas concentrations, marks a critical threshold for climate change impacts worldwide.

The report titled "State of the Climate 2024" highlights the accelerating risks posed by global warming, particularly for vulnerable communities.

Urgent need for climate action: Guterres

“Climate catastrophe is hammering health, widening inequalities, harming sustainable development, and rocking the foundations of peace,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

Guterres emphasised the urgent need for climate action to protect those most affected by these changes.

A major finding of the report is the unprecedented temperature increase. The average global temperature for the first nine months of 2024 exceeded the pre-industrial level by 1.54 degrees Celsius, temporarily surpassing the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal set in the Paris Agreement.

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Though long-term warming remains around 1.3 degrees Celsius, experts caution that every fraction of a degree compounds the intensity of extreme weather events and exacerbates climate risks.

Surge in ocean heat content reaches historic high

Another key observation is the surge in ocean heat content, which reached a historic high in 2023 and shows no signs of abating in 2024.

Oceans have absorbed over 90 per cent of the extra energy from global warming, a trend that will have long-term implications for marine life and coastal communities.

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Rising ocean temperatures also fuel extreme weather patterns, further intensifying climate challenges. Sea levels, driven by thermal expansion and glacier melt, continue to rise at a rate more than double that observed between 1993 and 2002.

Although the rate of increase slightly slowed in 2024, the WMO warns that sea level rise remains a grave concern for coastal regions worldwide. This trend underscores the need for coastal communities to strengthen resilience against rising waters.

Unprecedented glacier loss

The WMO report also draws attention to unprecedented glacier loss, with a record 1.2 metres of water equivalent lost in 2023.

Glaciers in Switzerland, for example, lost approximately 10 per cent of their remaining volume over just two years. Such rapid glacier retreat impacts mountainous and polar regions, highlighting the urgency for climate adaptation measures in these vulnerable areas.

Extreme weather events have also intensified globally, with WMO attributing deadly heatwaves, severe floods, tropical cyclones, and persistent droughts to climate change. These events have led to economic losses, food insecurity, and forced migration, hindering sustainable development and causing significant human suffering.

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Additionally, greenhouse gas concentrations reached record levels in 2023, with CO₂ rising to 420 parts per million, marking a 51 per cent increase from pre-industrial levels. This trend has persisted into 2024, pushing atmospheric heat retention higher and driving further warming. Such findings underline the pressing need to curb emissions on a global scale.

The polar ice regions continue to experience dramatic changes. Antarctic sea ice extent in 2024 was the second-lowest since satellite records began, with the Arctic also seeing near-record lows. The loss of polar ice contributes to global warming feedback loops, with cascading effects on ecosystems and weather patterns.

Need for climate adaptation

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasised the need for climate adaptation, particularly through initiatives like Early Warnings for All (EW4All), which aim to protect communities from extreme weather events.

As part of this initiative, 108 countries now report having a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System, a significant step towards enhancing resilience in vulnerable areas.

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The WMO’s findings underscore the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and implementing effective climate policies. In response, a team of international experts has been convened to track and communicate climate goals relative to the Paris Agreement and guide policymakers.

(With agency inputs)