COP28: Fund to compensate developing nations, other key issues to dominate UAE talks

The 28th round of the annual UN climate talks to be held in the UAE is expected to witness intense negotiations on compensation to be paid by rich countries to developing ones to battle climate change issues.

These include fossil fuel usage, methane emissions, and financial aid to reduce planet-warming emissions besides adapting to climate change.

The main task at COP28, however, is a first-time assessment of countries’ progress towards meeting the 2015 Paris Agreement's goal of limiting the global temperature rise to "well below" 2 degrees Celsius while aiming for 1.5C.

Experts admit that it is high time the climate crisis was fought with all sincerity. September this year marked the hottest recorded month ever, with global average temperatures reaching 1.8 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels.

Around the world, deadly heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, storms and floods were killing lives and livelihoods. Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions -- almost 90 per cent of which come from fossil fuels – touched record highs in 2021-22.

Here is an overview of the main issues expected at COP28, to be held at the Dubai Expo City from November 30 to December 12.

Loss and Damage Fund

What is the Loss and Damage Fund? It is a sort of reparation package where rich nations are to pay a damage cost to developing nations, which are more vulnerable to climate change. Though the base for the Fund emerged in the Paris Agreement in 2015, it was at Egypt's Sharm El-Sheikh last year, rich countries agreed to finally set up a loss-and-damage Fund.

India has been a moderately powerful voice rallying the Global South for this Fund. After Joe Biden became President "campaigning on the most aggressive climate platform ever advanced by a US presidential nominee in the general election" and a series of massive disasters attributed to climate change has spurred the need to bring this issue to the table.

At COP28, talks will be held on how to direct support to developing and poor countries that bear the brunt of the climate crisis while contributing little to the deepening problem.

Differences between countries necessitated an additional meeting to resolve these issues. And decisions on fund allocation, beneficiaries and administration were referred to a committee.

Distribution of funds

A draft agreement reached earlier this month will be up for a final approval at the climate talks. But both rich and developing nations are not happy, and this could need further negotiations. What remains a vexed issue is the establishment of a mechanism for the distribution of the funds and contributions to the fund.

Finance for energy transition, mitigation and adaptation in developing countries will be another critical issue at the Dubai climate talks. 

“Ambition without finance is empty ambition,” Avinash Persuad, a special envoy to Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley on climate finance, summed it up in a sentence.

According to a UN report, up to US$ 387 billion will be needed annually if developing countries are to adapt to climate-driven changes like coastal sea rise or storms. These huge price tags make the UN climate talks tense.

Rich at fault?

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has said the developed countries have miserably fallen short in raising US$ 100 billion per year – a promise made in 2009 – towards climate mitigation and adaptation needs of the developing countries in 2021, a year past the 2020 deadline.

COP28 will also discuss a new climate finance goal for the post-2025 period, which countries said should be in trillions not billions.

The EU and US have said they will put money in the climate damage fund at COP28, but they also talk about the need for private finance to help.

Phasing out fossil fuels

There is growing push to phase out fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas – which are the largest contributor to global climate change. They account for more than 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions.

There has been resistance from fossil fuel-producing nations and companies who argue they should be allowed to keep extracting oil and gas as long as they capture carbon emissions with sophisticated technologies, which experts say are "expensive and unproven".

The Emissions Gap Report 2023, released on November 20, warns that the world is heading for a nearly 3 degrees Celsius of warming if governments do not agree to and implement more ambitious targets.

According to the Energy Policy Tracker website, public financial support for fossil fuels, in the form of subsidies, investments by State-owned enterprises and lending from public financial institutions, exceeded US$ 1.7 trillion globally in 2022 – a record high.

Countries agreed at COP26 to phase down the use of coal but they have never agreed to quit all fossil fuels - the main source of planet-warming emissions.

In Glasgow in 2021, COP26 called on countries to "phase down" unabated coal power. Taking this forward, around 80 developed and developing countries supported India's call to phase out all fossil fuels, not just coal, at COP27 in 2022.

Tripling of renewable energy capacity 

Another issue that will dominate talks at COP28, will be the need for tripling renewable energy capacity.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says the world must triple its renewable energy capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency by 2030 to drive down demand for fossil fuels and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

While the G20 nations have supported tripling renewable energy capacity, it cannot be taken for granted till the remaining nations also buy into it at COP28. Led by the US, the European Union (EU) and the UAE, more than 60 countries now back a commitment to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency.

"We might be taking the global target of tripling of renewables for granted because the G20 bloc adopted it. But it will only become a global goal if all the countries agree to it at COP28," said Vaibhav Chaturvedi at the New Delhi-based independent climate thinktank Council on Energy Environment and Water (CEEW). Further he added that the capabilities of many countries are so low that it is not so easy for them to understand the implications of any such thing, he said.

Sidelights

The UAE has plans to make a voluntary pledge from oil and gas companies to cut emissions, in an effort to bring the fossil fuel industry into the climate fight.

Other initiatives set to be announced on the sidelines of COP28 include pledges to curb emissions of the greenhouse gas methane, limit emissions from air conditioning and restrict private finance for coal plants.

Consensus method

What makes decision difficult to arrive at? The problem with COP is that decisions are made through negotiations, leading up to consensus. There is no mechanism to act against non-compliant members. Member states can use naming and peer review as a means to compel action.

Till such time as consensus is reached and announced it is hard to say which way the negotiations will go.

(With agency inputs)