As Chirag relations sour, BJP offers his uncle Paras a sweet deal

Nephew out, uncle in?

The upcoming by-elections to four seats in the Bihar Assembly have prompted the BJP to rebalance its relations with two of its NDA partners — Chirag Paswan-led LJP (Ram Vilas), and his uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras-led Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP).  

Chirag, who brought with him five MPs to help the BJP form a coalition government at the Centre in June 2024, had been a clear favourite with the ruling party. Now, though, it may be Paras's turn. 

The political fortunes of Paras seem to be on the path of revival, what with Dilip Jaiswal, president of Bihar BJP, meeting him at his office in Patna recently. 

Upset with Chirag

Fuelling the BJP's increased bonhomie with Paras is its difference of opinion with Chirag Paswan, three of whose recent decisions have upset the saffron party. The three decisions are its opposition to the Waqf Amendment Bill, the lateral entry system, and quota-within-quota.

The LJP (Ram Vilas) filed an appeal against the recent decision of the Supreme Court to allow sub-classification within Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe reservation. Further, it pushed the Union government to appeal against the SC decision.

Also, Chirag's party demanded reservation in the lateral entry system, under which the Union government recently put out an ad for 45 UPSC seats only to reverse the decision later.

Reflecting the fissures within the NDA, the Narendra Modi government also agreed to the demand to send the controversial Waqf Amendment Bill to a parliamentary committee for greater scrutiny. 

Public vs private criticism

“If we look back at the political developments in the last few weeks...it must have been embarrassing for the Union government to see its own alliance partner, LJP (Ram Vilas), speak against its decisions," Sanjay Saraf, advisor to Pashupati Paras, told The Federal.

"It would have been better for the LJP (Ram Vilas) leadership to raise their concerns within the NDA framework rather than speak openly on these issues and embarrass the Union government," he added.

“We have consistently said that this kind of public criticism of alliance partners will only create differences within the NDA. All NDA partners must be careful not to arm the Opposition against the BJP by making statements in the media,” Saraf said.

Paras on the ascent

Just ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Paras resigned from the Union Council of Ministers after the BJP leadership decided to give five seats in Bihar to Chirag's party and not to give any seat to Paras's party.

Now, Paras plans to contest at least one of the four seats going to by-polls in Bihar, and the BJP leadership is reaching out to him to strike a deal. It wants him to step back and give all the four seats to the BJP, and also campaign for the party. In return, Paras may land a governorship. 

“The BJP leadership is keen that Pashupati Kumar Paras remains in NDA and also campaigns for the NDA in the coming by-polls and Assembly elections next year. The BJP leadership is also hopeful that Paras will agree to become a Governor. We continue to emphasise that within the NDA we have a better political and social network than LJP (Ram Vilas),” Saraf said.

Eye on 2025 polls

After the death of former Union Minister and LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan in October 2020, a fight erupted between his brother Paras and son Chirag over his political and social legacy. The rivalry continues to rage.

The return of Paras as a bigger force in the NDA can be viewed as a message to Chirag. It is also part of the BJP's attempts to streamline the NDA ahead of the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections. The aim is to ensure that Dalit votes do not get divided due to a tussle among NDA allies.

However, the latest talks between the BJP and Paras's RLJP are not limited to Bihar. It appears that the two alliance partners have agreed to be together in the upcoming Assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir as well.

J&K elections

As Jammu and Kashmir goes to Assembly polls after 10 years, the RLJP has decided to contest at least two seats in the Kashmir region. Paras has asked Sanjay Saraf to contest from Srinagar and Anantnag.

“The RLJP is the only official partner of the BJP contesting in Jammu and Kashmir. I am sure the BJP leadership is in conversation with other parties in Jammu and Kashmir for an alliance for the polls but so far it is only the RLJP that is already is part of the NDA,” said Saraf.

While the BJP strengthens bridges with Paras, political analysts believe it will try to retain Chirag's support as well. It wouldn't want to antagonise the Dalit voter base just before the Bihar Assembly elections.

Dalit vote bank

“The BJP is the second largest party in the Bihar Assembly, so it just needs the support of some smaller parties to form a government in the state," Yatindra Singh Sisodia of MP Institute of Social Science Research, Ujjain, told The Federal. 

 "And, just before the Bihar Assembly polls, the BJP does not want to anger the Dalit community by ignoring some leaders. The BJP leadership is aware that these leaders have limited presence and they will only benefit from them in some constituencies,” he added.