Will Haryana mandate ripples be felt in Maharashtra Assembly polls?

The BJP’s surprise win in the Haryana Assembly polls has sparked a debate about whether it will impact the outcome of the upcoming Assembly elections in Maharashtra. In Maharashtra, the Congress and its allies turned the tables on the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, just like in Haryana.

In the Lok Sabha polls, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) comprising Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) had dealt a blow to the ruling Mahayuti in Maharashtra by bagging 30 out of the 48 Lok Sabha seats. Similarly, the Congress managed to wrest 5 of the 10 Lok Sabha seats from the ruling BJP in Haryana. However, the stunning defeat that the Congress suffered in Haryana recently is enough to prove that a good show in Lok Sabha elections isn’t a guarantee for a déjà vu in the Assembly polls and people can vote differently in national and state elections.

Talking about similarities, the BJP’s situation in Maharashtra is akin to what it was in Haryana just ahead of polls with multiple challenges like farm crisis and the Opposition’s ‘Constitution-in-danger’ agenda, among others.

Political landscape

Unlike Haryana where the elections were mostly a direct fight between the Congress and the BJP, Maharashtra is a more complicated affair, with a contest between the two alliances – MVA and Mahayuti – with each of them comprising three political parties.

Also Read: Congress stares at seat-sharing hiccups after drubbing in Haryana, Jammu

There is also a buzz around a potential third front, with Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) planning to contest independently. These moves are being seen as attempts to divide anti-BJP votes.

In this scenario, the Congress's shocking defeat in Haryana may well impact seat-sharing talks in Maharashtra, where the party was hoping to stake a claim on the lion’s share based on its performance in the Lok Sabha polls, when it won 13 seats, the most in the MVA.

Knives are already out in the alliance, with the Shiv Sena (UBT) flaying the grand old party’s move to contest polls without accommodating its allies. It may take a toll on the bargaining power of the Congress within the MVA, while Sena (UBT) could also revive its demands of naming Uddhav Thackeray as the alliance's CM face.

Shiv Sena (UBT) Rajya Sabha MP Priyanka Chaturvedi said: “What is important to note is that there was fertile ground to win. They need to introspect why they lose whenever there is a direct contest. The seat-sharing talks are underway in Maharashtra. But with the new reality in Haryana, we will also look at that. What is important is to get the current dispensation out. We have to also look at ground realities.”

On the other hand, the victory gives the BJP the elbow to negotiate hard with its Mahayuti allies – Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP. The BJP is looking to avoid the protracted negotiations that hampered its electoral efforts in Lok Sabha polls. The party has reportedly decided that each party will retain their sitting constituencies, which means 105 seats for it, 40 for the Shiv Sena (Shinde), and 41 for the NCP (Ajit Pawar). This leaves 102 of the 288 total seats still undecided. While the NCP is said to be pushing for 85-90 seats, the BJP is said to be pushing for at least 155 to 160 seats as anything less may cause unrest within its state unit. The Sena is trying to assert itself in Mumbai, Thane, and Konkan, demanding 36 and 24 constituencies respectively in the first two regions.

These nuances reveal that despite similarities on the surface, Maharashtra and Haryana’s political realities differ significantly.

Also Read: Fadnavis a 'Maratha hater', govt operates as per his wishes: Jarange

Caste dynamics

The BJP’s caste calculus is seen as a major force behind the party’s triumph in Haryana as a majority of non-Jat OBCs, upper castes and Dalits reposed their faith in it.

The Congress, on the other hand, banked on a Jat-Dalit combination. In Maharashtra too, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), of which the Congress is one of the key constituents, banks on consolidating Maratha, Muslim, and Dalit votes. Citing the BJP’s success in garnering support of non-Jat and OBC voters, many in Maharashtra are now speculating that non-Maratha groups might throw their weight behind the BJP. In Haryana, Jats comprise 25 per cent of the population and Dalits 20 per cent, while in Maharashtra, Marathas account for 30 per cent, Dalits 12 per cent, and Muslims 11 per cent.

However, unlike Haryana, Maharashtra’s caste politics is more intricate and there have been raging quota rows in the state in the recent past.

The issue of Maratha reservation is already in the spotlight with activist Manoj Jarange-Patil launching another indefinite hunger strike last month to demand reservations in government jobs and education for the Maratha community under the OBC category. Jarange recently announced that if the Maharashtra government did not accept the Maratha community's quota-related demands, he would disclose his strategy for the Assembly election within 48 hours of the code of conduct coming into force. If his supporters decide to contest the elections, they would fight independently and would not form an alliance though they would seek to defeat the ruling Mahayuti coalition, he said.

Similarly, the Dhangar community, currently in the OBC-NT category, is also seeking Scheduled Tribe (ST) status, unsettling the existing ST population, which constitutes 9% of the total.

Also Read: Maharashtra govt asks Centre to raise income limit of non-creamy layer ahead of polls

In the recent Lok Sabha election, the Mahayuti secured only one of the four ST seats in Maharashtra, down from a clean sweep in 2014 and 2019. This is what perhaps explains some of the latest moves of the Maharashtra government just ahead of the polls.

The state cabinet this week recommended to the Centre that the annual income limit to qualify as ‘non-creamy layer’ be increased from the existing Rs 8 lakh to Rs 15 lakh.

A non-creamy layer certificate, stating that the family income of a person is below the prescribed limit, is needed to be eligible for reservation benefits in the OBC category.

Another key cabinet decision was to clear a draft ordinance according constitutional status to the Maharashtra State Scheduled Caste Commission. These decisions are being viewed as the Mahayuti’s outreach to the Scheduled Caste and Other Backward Classes groups prior to polls.

Agrarian crisis

Like Haryana, Maharashtra is battling farm distress. The state’s farmers face a slew of issues, though they are comparatively less vocal than their counterparts in Punjab and Haryana.

The agrarian distress was one of the major reasons for Mahayuti’s loss in the Lok Sabha elections. More than 80% of the farm area comes under two major crops in Maharashtra -- cotton and soybean. To address the concerns of the farming community, the Mahayuti government last month announced that it will transfer Rs 5,000 per hectare (up to 2 hectares) to 65 lakh cotton and soybean farmers, bridging the gap between MSP and market price.

Also Read: Centre's recent onion-rice move could help BJP in Maharashtra, Haryana polls

The government announced the distribution of Rs 2,399 crore as subsidy to soya-cotton farmers, which will be deposited in the accounts of 49.5 lakh account holders. A total of 96 lakh account holder farmers will benefit out of this scheme, said state minister Dhananjay Munde.

Moreover, the Union government's decision to ease the export duty on onions and also take positive steps on soya pricing may help the BJP and its alliance partners in the state. Following these critical moves ahead of the polls, the ruling Mahayuti alliance may actually pose a challenge for Sharad Pawar's NCP, which has been campaigning hard on these issues among the farmers in western and northern Maharashtra in the past few months to gain political ground.

However, the Mahayuti alliance still won’t be able to breathe easy as the Assembly polls are likely to be scheduled for mid-November, coinciding with the cotton and soybean harvest. The government now faces the challenge of ensuring remunerative prices for the farmers’ produce, which along with various other factors, will significantly decide voting patterns, particularly in Vidarbha and Marathwada regions.