TMC leader hints exit polls were rigged to influence stock market, demands SEBI probe
Investors made profits based on exit poll prediction of NDA sweep, but incurred losses worth ₹31L Cr on June 4 after early trends suggested BJP running short of majority to form govt
With the Lok Sabha poll results cancelling out the exit poll prediction of a massive sweep for the BJP-led NDA, Trinamool Congress leader Saket Gokhale has urged SEBI to investigate whether the exit poll results were manipulated to influence the stock market.
The stark difference between exit poll results and those on the day of counting led to a fall in stocks on June 4.
Charges against India Today’s exit polls
In a letter to the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), Gokhale said even though investors made massive profits, riding on the prediction of a sweeping win for the BJP-led NDA, they were in for a rude shock in the form of losses worth ₹31 lakh crore after early trends suggested that the BJP-led coalition was unlikely to win the 350 plus parliamentary seats predicted in the exit polls, especially that conducted by India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll-2024.
“Investors made massive profits on 03.06.2024 after the markets rose on the back of exit poll results. However, on 04.06.2024, investors suffered losses of over ₹31 lakh crore. In the interest of protection of investors, it is important to determine if the India Today Axis MyIndia exit polls were rigged or intentionally skewed in favour of the BJP-led NDA which led to the unprecedented rally in the markets on 3rd June,” Gokhale said in the letter to the market regulator.
Asserting that the exit poll results were skewed to rally the stock market, Gokhale said, “Lakhs of crores of investors’ money was later wiped off after the markets crashed. There must be an investigation to determine if pollsters like Axis MyIndia intentionally inflated the exit polls for the BJP. This is important because Axis MyIndia also had BJP as a client,” he said.
Rise and slump
A majority of the exit polls had predicted the BJP-led NDA to mop up over 350 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats. Based on these results, the market saw massive gains above 3 per cent on June 3, the eve of results day – NSE Nifty closed down at 23,300 or 3.25 per cent, while the Sensex was up 2,507 points or 3.39 per cent at 76,468.78.
The market, however, witnessed a freefall a day later, crashing by 6 per cent, when early trends during counting showed the BJP struggling to inch towards the majority figures predicted in the exit polls with a resurgent Opposition giving it neck to neck fight.
While in the day the indices fell as much as 8.5 per cent, the Nifty closed down 5.93 per cent at 21,884.5 and the Sensex fell 5.74 per cent to 72,079.05. This was the biggest fall in indexes since March 2020 when stocks saw a slump following the first COVID-19 lockdown.
The NDA won 293 seats with the BJP accounting for 240 of them while the INDIA bloc won 234 seats.