Portal that accurately predicted 2023 Karnataka results challenges exit polls

A pall of gloom descended over the Congress headquarters at Queens Road in Bengaluru on Saturday (June 1) as the exit poll results started streaming in, predicting single-digit seats for the party that formed the government in Karnataka last year. They have been hoping for better figures in the Lok Sabha elections, banking on the implementation of the five guarantees in the state.

All the major exit polls, conducted by India Today-Axis My India, TV Bharatvarsha-Polstart, India TV-CNX, Jan Ki Baat, Republic TV-P-MARQ, ABP News-C Voter, and India News-D Dynamics, have predicted 20-plus seats for the BJP and JD(S) alliance.

Eedina challenges exit poll results

Understandably, the exit poll results sparked anxiety among the ruling Congress workers and civil society activists ahead of vote-counting day. However, Kannada portal Eedina, which conducted several rounds of surveys and projected a distinct advantage for the Congress in Karnataka, has challenged the exit poll claims of Congress getting only three to five seats.

Notably, Eedina was the only media house to accurately predict a Congress victory with 132 to 140 seats in the 2023 state Assembly polls. It has now said based on its own survey that the state is likely to buck the trend of the BJP outdoing the Congress in every Lok Sabha election since 2004. The survey has predicted anything between 13 and 18 Lok Sabha seats out of the state’s 28 for the Congress with a possible vote share of 46.41 per cent.

CM instils confidence in legislators

However, according to party sources, many legislators expressed their concerns at the Congress Legislative Party meeting held in a private hotel to discuss the elections to the 11-seat Legislative Council. A senior Congress leader, who had joined the meeting, told The Federal that many legislators referred to the exit poll results and voiced their anxiety about the possible impact of BJP-JD(S) alliance crossing 20-plus seats.

Understanding the apprehensions of the legislators, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, who headed the meeting, instilled confidence in them, asking them not to take the exit polls so seriously, as it is a “manufactured mandate” dictated by the NDA government at the Centre.

“Exit polls predicted that the Congress will not cross double digits (in Karnataka). But I know the ground reality. Internal surveys conducted by the party and Intelligence reports indicate that the party will secure a minimum of 18 to 20 seats. There is no need to worry about the exit polls,” he is learnt to have said.

DKS confident of crossing two digits

Similarly, Deputy Chief Minister and state Congress president DK Shivakumar said the exit polls would “go wrong, like they did during the Assembly elections”. Speaking to media persons on Sunday, he reiterated that the exit polls would go wrong and there was no need for the party workers, cadre and leaders to panic.

“Exit polls had predicted that the Congress would not come to power during the last Assembly elections also, but the people proved them wrong. Exit polls had indicated that the Congress would win only about 80 to 85 seats, but we had predicted that the Congress would bag 136 seats based on the party’s internal surveys. Eventually, Congress won 136 seats,” he pointed out.

Taking a critical view of exit polls, Shivakumar said, “Exit polls consider a very small sample size of 5,000 people and hence I don’t believe them. The people of Karnataka, especially women, have reposed their faith in our guarantee schemes. I am sure they have supported us.” Refusing to comment on the national results, he said, “We will surely cross double digits in Karnataka.”

Jubilation in BJP camp

However, BJP leaders are learnt to be rejoicing at the exit poll results, which have predicted landslide victory for NDA. Union Minister Pralhad Joshi, who is contesting from the Dharwad Lok Sabha constituency of Karnataka, criticised the Congress for not having faith in the democratic institutions of the country.

Speaking to media persons, Joshi further commented that the Congress neither has faith in the top institutions of the country nor in themselves. Referring to Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s reaction, he said, “The Congress does not even believe in EVMs. When faced with defeat, it blames Electronic Voting Machines and the Election Commission. He further claimed that the NDA will garner more seats than what the exit polls predicted. There is every possibility of the number crossing the 400 mark, he claimed.

About Eedina survey

The Eedina survey — led by Survey Head HV Vasu and Research Head Bharat Hebbar — has come as a ray of hope for civil society collectives and forces opposing the BJP’s divisive politics.

This independent survey by Eedina contrasts people’s perception of Prime Minister Narendra Modi with their views on corruption and welfare schemes of the Centre and the increasing gap between the rich and the poor.