Maharashtra | Shift in political dynamics holds lessons for Mahayuti, MVA

The poor showing of the BJP, and the Congress’ rise from ‘zero to hero’ in the Lok Sabha polls in Maharashtra, have brought a new set of challenges for the rival parties and their respective coalitions ahead of the Assembly polls, which are just four months away.

That the BJP is planning a complete overhaul in Maharashtra was clear when Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, who took full responsibility for the party’s weak performance in the state, offered to resign from his post and work for the upcoming assembly elections.

2019 vs 2024 results

The equations in this election were different from the previous ones. The composition of the alliances in Maharashtra was also different.

This time, there was the Mahayuti alliance instead of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) instead of UPA. The Mahayuti coalition comprises the BJP, the Ajit Pawar-led NCP and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, while the MVA is a coalition of the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Bal Thackeray), Congress and NCP (Sharad Pawar).

In the 2024 polls, the MVA won 30 of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats, while the Mahayuti got only 17. One seat went in favour of an Independent candidate. Of the MVA’s 30 seats, Congress won 13, Shiv Sena (UBT) nine and NCP (Sharad Pawar) bagged eight. Whereas in Mahayuti, BJP got nine seats, Shiv Sena (Shinde) got seven seats and NCP (Ajit Pawar) got only one seat.

This is in contrast to the 2019 poll results, where the NDA had won 43 seats against the UPA’s tally of five.

In 2019, the BJP won 23 seats while its then alliance partner Shiv Sena won 18 seats. The Congress won only one seat while the undivided NCP won four seats.

Why did the BJP’s vote share drop?

So, what caused the most damage to the Mahayuti alliance, especially the BJP?

Senior journalist Jitendra Dixit says it's a combination of reasons:

1. Big blow to public image

Many decisions of the BJP that go against its touted ideologies have tarnished the party’s image among the public. Dixit says ever since the Narendra Modi government came to power in 2014, it has talked about a corruption-free India. But after 2019, especially in Maharashtra, the party has empowered many leaders who carry around the stain of corruption, like Ajit Pawar and Ashok Chavan. The message wasn’t well received by the public, which responded to it by cutting the BJP down to size.

2. Manipulative politics

The political analyst further says the people of Maharashtra did not like the politics of manipulation either. The BJP may have gained a temporary advantage by engineering a split in the Shiv Sena and NCP, but now its loss has turned out to be very serious. Obviously, the public did not like this step and BJP had to face its adverse consequences, he adds.

3. Anti-incumbency wave

Dixit says anti-incumbency against the Mahayuti government may have worked against the coalition. In 2014, there was a Modi wave not only in the entire country but also in the state. Whereas in 2019, due to the Pulwama attack and India’s retaliatory surgical strike in Pakistan’s Balakot, there was a wave of patriotism across the country, which was in support of the BJP. But this time no such wave was seen.

4. Absence of counter slogans

The Opposition’s ‘save Constitution and reservation’ slogan was the most damaging one for the BJP. The slogan created fear in the minds of Dalit and OBC voters who deserted the BJP in large numbers, says Dixit.

5. Late selection of candidates 

One of the reasons behind the BJP's loss was the late announcement of candidates. While the MVA had announced its candidates much earlier and kicked off its poll campaign soon after, the BJP’s campaign was delayed due to delay in candidate selection.

What’s next for BJP?

Taking notes from its poor performance in the polls, the BJP has begun reorganising the party. In line with this, it will have to take up a political reconstruction and organise workers on a large scale, especially those at the grassroots.

The BJP will also face a new challenge in the form of Raj Thackeray, who was included in the Mahayuti ahead of the Lok Sabha polls and was assured of being given a chance in the Assembly election.

This means the BJP will be faced with the twin tasks of negotiating seats with Raj and not angering Shinde and Ajit Pawar faction MLAs, who left their parties to join the Mahayuti coalition.

Challenges before MVA

Dixit says that the reasons which proved to be harmful for the Mahayuti were beneficial for the MVA. The alliance skillfully spread its narrative of ‘threat to Constitution and reservation’ among the public to bring Dalit and OBC voters to its side besides Muslims.

The public also showered sympathy for the Shiv Sena and NCP split on the MVA parties.

However, the biggest challenge for the MVA now is to keep all the components of the alliance together. It is not that anyone is leaving, but any clash of egos can become a threat to the alliance.

Storm ahead?

The Congress, which had won only one seat in 2019, has now become the largest party with 13 seats. This is why, on Wednesday, Congress' Nana Patole said that the party will play a bigger role as the ‘elder brother’. His statement is an indication of the party’s pitch to contest more seats in the upcoming Assembly elections.

On the other hand, Sanjay Raut from Shiv Sena (UBT) has said in a statement that the party has a big role in the results that have come given the party’s massive influence and spread across the state.

The statements of both these leaders are indicative of a possible storm that may be in the offing ahead of the Assembly polls in Maharashtra.

(This article was originally published in The Federal Desh)