Maharashtra | Poll schedule out, but Mahayuti, MVA grapple to seal seat-sharing deal

While the Election Commission has announced November 20 as the date for polling in Maharashtra, both the major alliances in the state – Mahayuti and MVA – are yet to finalise their seat-sharing arrangement.

With three political parties each, both the alliances are finding it difficult to reach an amiable agreement as each of their constituents is eyeing a larger share of seats, hoping to get a “good deal” in case their alliance forms a government. The MVA and the Mahayuti are also aware of the possibility of facing a number of rebel candidates in the state.

The fact that the two alliances will have one official candidate each in every Assembly segment may lead to a scenario where they might face at least two rebels in each segment, that of the other two parties of their respective alliance. Consequently, the intense competition for tickets in these alliances may lead to a significant rise in independent candidates. With each alliance partner trying to contest and win the maximum number of seats, the parties will not hesitate to back strong independents against nominees put up by their allies.

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With the clock already ticking, both the alliances are expected to finalise their respective seat-sharing arrangement within a week, with the first list of candidates expected to be announced by October 20.

BJP-Sena tussle in Mahayuti

With 105 MLAs in the current state Assembly, the BJP is set to retain the status of the dominant party in the Mahayuti alliance, also comprising Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar).

As per media reports, the BJP is likely to contest anywhere between 150-155 seats, Shinde Sena on 90-95 seats and Ajit Pawar-led NCP 40-45 seats out of total 288 Assembly segments. The Mahayuti has finalised seat-sharing arrangement on 230 seats and the decision on the remaining 58 segments is likely to be taken soon. The other two allies – Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (AP) – are bargaining hard, pushing for more seats, even as the BJP is not willing to cede political space to them in the state.

The Shinde faction of Shiv Sena is particularly pushing hard for contesting more than 100 seats, contending that it had the best strike rate among the Mahayuti allies in the Lok Sabha elections. However, the BJP is asking Chief Minister Eknath Shinde to make “sacrifices” just as they did to keep the alliance intact.

Maharashtra BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule recently said, “Chief Minister Eknath Shinde should be willing to make sacrifices in terms of seat-sharing for the Assembly polls, like the BJP has done to keep the alliance intact. The chief minister must remain open-minded and be willing to make sacrifices. We, too, have made sacrifices to uphold the alliance. It is evident that the BJP aims to contest the seats we previously held.”

Ajit Pawar on weak wicket

However, the biggest loser, if the figures quoted in media reports on seat-sharing arrangement turn out to be true, would be Ajit Pawar, as the NCP (AP) leader was insistent that he should get around 70 seats but he will have to remain content with around 45 to 55.

Notably, the NCP (AP) was the weakest link in the Mahayuti alliance in the Lok Sabha elections, winning only 1 out of the 4 Lok Sabha seats it contested. Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis even stated publicly that the NCP (AP) failed to transfer its vote to the other two Mahayuti allies.

In 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP contested 162 seats and won 105 while its alliance partner, the undivided Shiv Sena, fielded candidates in 124 constituencies, securing 56 seats.

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MVA logjam persists in Vidarbha

In Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), the Congress is eyeing to contest 110-120 seats, while the Shiv Sena (UBT) wants 90-100 and NCP (SP) is aiming for around 80 seats. The MVA intends to release its first candidate list by October 18, according to leaders from the Opposition alliance.

Like Mahayuti, the MVA too has reached an agreement on nearly 230 of the total 288 seats.

The stalemate between the alliance partners persists in Vidarbha. The Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT) have high stakes in the region, and both the parties are unwilling to compromise.

Those aware of the political developments revealed that the three allies are grappling to reach a consensus on Vidarbha seats, despite having multiple rounds of discussions. Many attribute the tussle for key seats in this region to the shifting dynamics in the backdrop of the Haryana Assembly poll results in which the Congress suffered a shock defeat at the hands of the BJP for the their consecutive time.

Earlier, there was logjam over Mumbai seats as well, but the MVA finalised the deal on Thursday. In Mumbai, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena will contest 18 out of 36 seats, while Congress will contest 15, higher than what it had fought in 2019. Sharad Pawar's NCP will get 2 seats, while 1 seat will be given to the Samajwadi Party.

In Vidarbha, the Congress wants to contest the maximum number of seats. It is strongly defending its claim over seats in and around Nagpur, emphasising its past successes in the region, whereas the Shiv Sena has staked its claim on five seats: Nagpur South, Nagpur East, Ramtek, Kamthi and Umred.

The Congress won five of the 10 Lok Sabha seats in Vidarbha in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. However, the Shiv Sena (UBT) is in no mood to back out. The Sena (UBT) leaders argue that they conceded seats to the Congress in the general elections and now it’s the latter’s turn to reciprocate their gesture in the Assembly polls.

Smaller parties add to woes

The inclusion of the Samajwadi Party (SP) has added to the seat-sharing troubles of the MVA, as its state president Abu Asim Azmi has stated that they would like to contest at least 12 seats in Maharashtra, though a final decision will be taken in consultation with SP chief Akhilesh Yadav.

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SP is likely to get three seats in the seat-sharing agreement. The Peasants and Workers Party of India (PWP) is also likely to get three, and CPI-M is expected to get two, according to people aware of the matter.

Meanwhile, in the run up to the elections, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP seems to be the favoured destination for leaders who do not have the possibility of getting ticket in Mahayuti. The party has already roped in leaders like Harshvardhan Patil and Samarjeet Ghatge and is in the process of roping in several others from the ruling alliance.

In the 2019 Assembly elections, the Congress contested 147 seats and won 44, in alliance with the undivided NCP, which contested 121 and emerged victorious on 54.