Graphic Explainer | Maharashtra polls: Six regions, and their electoral dynamics

With the battle lines drawn for the crucial Maharashtra Assembly polls next month, the stage is set for an exciting electoral contest between the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the Opposition MVA across six regions with varying political dynamics.

The six regions are Western Maharashtra with 70 seats, Vidarbha with 62, Marathwada with 46, Thane-Konkan with 39, Mumbai with 36, and North Maharashtra with 35 seats, making up for the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly. The fact that these regions have varied demographics, dynamics, and issues, makes these elections all the more challenging for the rival alliances.

This is also perhaps the reason no single party in Maharashtra has crossed the halfway mark on its own in the last four decades, and coalition governments have become the norm. Almost all the major players have their respective areas of influence in these regions, and none of the parties can claim a pan-Maharashtra presence.

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The ruling Mahayuti alliance led by the BJP is hoping for a reversal of fortunes after the party’s stunning triumph in Haryana. The BJP suffered a major blow in the Lok Sabha polls, as its tally fell from 23 in 2019 to a mere 9 in 2024. The ruling combine could bag only 17 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats.

On the other hand, the Opposition MVA would like to continue its winning streak, as it emerged victorious on 30 Lok Sabha seats, with the Congress leading with 13.

Key regions with almost half of seats

The two regions that hold the key to power in the state are Western Maharashtra (70 seats) and Vidarbha (62), as they account for almost half to the 288 Assembly segments.

A Congress stronghold, Vidarbha witnessed close contests between the BJP and Congress from 1999 to 2009. However, the BJP overtook the Congress in the region after the Narendra Modi wave in 2014. The grand old party made a comeback in the 2024 general elections.

The region is also home to prominent BJP leaders like Union Minister Nitin Gadkari and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. However, internal feud and seat-sharing conflicts within the Mahayuti alliance could impact its performance.

On the other hand, riding high on the Lok Sabha poll success, Congress led by state unit chief Nana Patole sees an opportunity to capitalise on this discontent. The split in Shiv Sena has further complicated the political landscape, with both factions vying for influence.

In 2014 Assembly polls, the BJP won 44 of 62 seats in Vidarbha region, while the Congress had to be content with mere 10 seats. However, the BJP’s tally saw a significant decline in 2019 Assembly polls, with the party winning 29 in Vidarbha. The Congress improved its tally by 5, winning 15 seats. The undivided Shiv Sena and NCP won 4 and 6 seats, respectively. Agrarian issues could dominate this drought-prone region, which is a hotbed of farmer suicides.

Will Mahayuti take ‘sweet’ revenge?

Known for its sugar lobby, whose influence extends far beyond the fields, impacting electoral dynamics across Maharashtra, Western Maharashtra has long been a Congress-NCP bastion. Seeking to make inroads, the BJP has engineered a split in the NCP and aligned with the Ajit Pawar faction, setting the stage for a fierce ‘Pawar vs Pawar’ battle.

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The Lok Sabha election results, where the Mahayuti faced setbacks, including the loss of the prestigious Baramati Lok Sabha seat, highlight the challenges the ruling alliance may face in this region. The region would witness a BJP and NCP (Ajit Pawar)-versus-Congress and NCP (Sharad Pawar) battle.

In 2019 Assembly polls, the Congress in alliance with undivided NCP bagged 39 seats in the region as against 25 won by the BJP-Shiv Sena combine. In 2014 Assembly polls, when the all four political parties (BJP, Congress, NCP, and Shiv Sena) contested separately, the BJP won 24 seats followed by NCP with 19 seats in Western Maharashtra.

Cornered, BJP needs to fightback

A region grappling with underdevelopment and drought, Marathwada remains a hotbed of caste politics. The demand for Maratha reservation continues to be a contentious issue in this region.

While the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance found success here in 2019, the current political realignments, particularly the split in NCP and Shiv Sena, could impact voting patterns in the upcoming polls next month.

The BJP has a reason to worry in these three regions, as it delivered a dismal performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The MVA gained the upper hand in all three regions, reducing BJP to zero seats in Marathwada and pushing it further back in Vidarbha and Western Maharashtra.

The BJP lost 3 Lok Sabha seats, that it held in 2019, each in Western Maharashtra and Vidarbha. The party was decimated in Marathwada, where it could not win any seats. In 2019, the party had won 4 of 9 seats.

In 2014 Assembly polls, the BJP won 15 seats in Marathwada followed by undivided Shiv Sena with 11 seats. The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won 28 seats in Marathwada in 2019 Assembly elections, while the Congress-NCP alliance bagged 16 seats.

 Sena vs Sena battle in Thane-Konkan

A coastal strip stretching along western Maharashtra, the Thane-Konkan region witnessed the undivided Shiv Sena’s dominance in the 2019 Assembly elections.

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However, the split in Shiv Sena will lead to a Sena vs Sena battle in the region for the first time in an Assembly election. The ruling Mahayuti will look forward to making major gains with Eknath Shinde, a prominent Konkan leader, leading the alliance in the state, though persistent issues like unemployment and displacement could sway voters.

Post the split, Shinde, who hails from this region, yields considerable clout. The Shinde faction defeated the Uddhav faction in two head-to-head contests in the Kalyan and Thane Lok Sabha seats in the recent general elections.

In 2014 Assembly elections, the Shiv Sena won 14 seats, followed by the BJP with 10. In 2019 Assembly polls, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance bagged 26 seats, even as the Congress-NCP alliance won 7 constituencies.

Mumbai | Bastion turns into battleground

Though Mumbai is seen as a stronghold of Balasaheb Thackeray and his clan, the Congress and the BJP also have a strong presence in the region.

The Shiv Sena split significantly impacts this region, and the upcoming elections will reveal whether the Maha Vikas Aghadi can capitalise on this shift. Of the three direct fights between the Eknath Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray factions in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Sena (UBT) won two, losing the third by just 48 votes.

Based on the leads in the Lok Sabha polls, the Opposition MVA holds an edge in 21 seats, leaving the Mahayuti trailing with 15.

In 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance virtually swept Mumbai region, winning 30 out of 36 seats, leaving the Congress-NCP alliance far behind with mere 5 seats.

BJP on strong wicket in North Maharashtra

The region could see a battle between the MVA and Mahayuti as all six parties (three each from the rival alliances) have pockets of influence with BJP leading the ruling alliance in its stronghold.

Also Read: Maharashtra | Why both MVA and Mahayuti are contesting polls without projecting CM face 

The BJP alone led in the highest number of Assembly segments in North Maharashtra (20 of 35 seats) in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. However, the party will have a challenging time placating disgruntled farmers and tribal communities. Tribal issues could dominate in the region as it houses the state’s highest ST population.

The MVA too may face a daunting task here, as the Shiv Sena-NCP split reverberates strongly in North Maharashtra, particularly in Jalgaon, Nashik, and Ahmednagar.

All eyes will be on Chhagan Bhujbal of the Ajit Pawar-led NCP, who aims to leverage his OBC support base, and Eknath Khadse, who has returned to the NCP (Sharad Pawar) after his fallout with the BJP.

In 2014 Assembly polls, the BJP won 14 seats in the region, followed by the Congress with 7. In 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance emerged victorious on 19 seats, while the Congress-NCP alliance bagged 12 seats.