LS polls 2024: 10 reasons why TMC could reverse BJP surge in Bengal

The result of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, in which the BJP had bagged 18 seats in West Bengal, had come as a huge wake-up call for the Trinamool Congress. And from the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls — as also it was from the 2021 state Assembly polls — it is evident that party supremo Mamata Banerjee took the threat seriously.

On Tuesday (June 4), Bengal’s ruling party was back with a bang, bagging 29 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats, turning all exit poll predictions on their head. In effect, six of those seats came from the BJP, while one from the Congress. Here are 10 reasons why the TMC made a comprehensive return to the Lok Sabha in 2024.

1. Mamata Banerjee’s unwavering popularity

Mamata Banerjee’s journey in West Bengal politics is nearly half a century old. She started as a foot soldier of the state Congress in the 1970s, when she was in her twenties. In the 1984 Lok Sabha elections, Banerjee became a giant-killer, defeating veteran Communist politician Somnath Chatterjee from the Jadavpur constituency when she was merely 29. Since then, she has gone on to form her own party in 1998, which ended the Left Front’s 34-year rule in Bengal in 2011.

Over all these years, she has built a reputation as a grassroots leader, someone who is an elder sister (Didi) to the electorate. From Assembly to Parliament to foreign shores, she has never been seen in anything but her simple white sari with blue border and her flipflops. She continues to live in her modest dwelling in Kalighat, where she has hosted everyone, from former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to superstar Salman Khan. That “simplicity” and “I am one of you” statement to the electorate is her USP, which is quite hard to beat.

2. TMC’s decision to go it alone

Banerjee faced a lot of flak for refusing to share seats with INDIA bloc partners ahead of the polls. The party famously said they could not find a seat to give away to bloc partners Congress and the Left Front even by “looking with binoculars”. She has repeatedly asserted, though, that she will back the bloc if it comes to forming the government at the Centre.

Her decision triggered a war of words, with state Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, who has shared a bitter rivalry with her since their days together in Bengal Congress, saying he “did not trust her” and that she could “go to BJP also”. But Banerjee’s calculation was right. Even though there was a risk of the secular and Muslim votes getting split, she was confident that enough of these would fall in the party’s kitty to see her candidates through. And her gamble paid off.

Ironically, Chowdhury, a five-time MP from Baharampur, lost the seat this time to former cricketer Yusuf Pathan, a debutant fielded by TMC.

3. TMC’s formidable organisation

Mamata herself is known to be a hands-on leader — someone who even knows her grassroots workers by their first names. She is known to have her ear to the ground. And these she has been passing on to her nephew Abhishek Banerjee, who is clearly set to be her political heir.

Over the past few years, Abhishek, despite accusations of corruption, has been slowly gaining ground as another of the party’s face at the national level. He has been working hard to strengthen the party organisation at the grassroots level and the results are evident from the TMC’s comprehensive victories in the 2021 Assembly polls and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

He also set a personal milestone by winning the Diamond Harbour seat by a record margin of 7.10 lakh votes. Mamata openly congratulated him at the press conference on Tuesday and also declared him as her representative in the INDIA bloc meeting. She is ready with her second generation.

4. Lack of prominent BJP faces

The West Bengal BJP has no prominent faces that enjoy the kind of popularity that can match Mamata’s by miles. Former state BJP president Dilip Ghosh lost the Burdwan-Durgapur seat to another former cricketer, TMC’s Kirti Azad, by some 1.4 lakh votes. Other leaders who had gained some notice, such as actor Locket Chatterjee, also bit the dust.

State BJP chief Sukanta Majumdar did manage to hold on to the Balurghat seat, but he is far from being a popular leader at the state level. Even the Leader of Opposition in the Assembly, Midnapore strongman Suvendu Adhikari, who defeated Mamata from Nandigram in the 2021 polls, also enjoys only a zonal popularity.

Hence, the contest of popularity was essentially between Mamata and Narendra Modi. And in Bengal, Modi pales in comparison to the firebrand TMC chief, who, after all, is the state’s “own daughter” — a sentiment successfully capitalised by poll strategist Prashant Kishor in the 2021 state polls with the song and slogan “Bangla nijer meyekei chay” (Bengal wants its own daughter). That sentiment has worked its charm once again.

5. BJP’s poor presence at the grassroots

Apart from having no prominent faces, BJP also lacks any presence at the grassroots. Mamata herself left no stone unturned before the polls, holding 108 public rallies and several roadshows all over the state, from north to south, and taking stock of the situation. On Tuesday, she claimed at a press conference that the CPM and Congress in Bengal were “in cohorts with” the BJP, which “has money but no one to work for them” in the state. “Even their flags are put up by agencies,” she claimed.

Before Mamata, several of Bengal’s Left rulers were known to have close ties with the grassroots. The Front may be nowhere in state politics now, but 81-year-old CPM leader Kanti Ganguly, who famously visited Sunderbans ahead of every cyclone, made headlines again before Remal hit the state recently. He was there once again. There is no one in the state BJP with that level of dedication.

6. The overarching focus on Hindu identity

In 2019, the BJP had been able to make some inroads in the tribal belt of Jangalmahal, where development has been hard to reach. But the attempt to bring the tribals under the Hindu fold backfired for the BJP.

Also, the party’s overarching focus on Hindutva never worked majorly in West Bengal, where the “Bengali” identity largely beats religious and caste identities. Simply Hindutva is not likely to take the saffron party far in Bengal. It needs something concrete to show on the ground.

7. Row over non-release of MGNREGA funds

The row over non-release of MGNREGA funds and Mamata Banerjee subsequently making the payment from the state coffers was not lost on the electorate. The BJP government at the Centre blamed it on “corruption” by the state government for not releasing the funds. But for the electorate, all that mattered was the one who deprived them of their money.

8. TMC’s share of minority votes

Muslims make up some 25 per cent of the electorate in West Bengal. And they rallied behind TMC en masse. The votes could have been split among the Left and the Congress but that did not happen. Mamata repeatedly urged them to vote only for the TMC because “otherwise the vote will go to the BJP”. It seems to have worked. One of the reasons for Abhishek winning Diamond Harbour by a record margin is because the Muslim votes went completely in his favour.

9. Populist schemes like Lakshmir Bhandar

The various beneficiary schemes for women introduced by the TMC government — Lakshmir Bhandar, Sabujshree, and Kanyashree — together with the Swasthya Sathi health scheme, paid rich dividends for the party in the Lok Sabha polls too.

Traditionally, Mamata enjoys female votes, which comprise a little less than 50 per cent of the total. Around 2.30 crore women get direct cash assistance of Rs 1000 every month through Lakshmir Bhandar. Women had no reason not to vote for TMC — despite the allegations of sexual harassment in Sandeshkhali, where too, the party emerged victorious.

10. A counter-narrative to every BJP narrative

Mamata has successfully set a counter-narrative to every narrative set by the BJP. If the BJP focused on a narrative of “TMC corruption”, the party countered it with “harassment by ED-CBI”. If the BJP alleged “mass rapes in Sandeshkhali”, the TMC turned it into an “engineered narrative” with sting-operation videos hinting otherwise. And, for everything else, she set the “anti-Bangla” narrative against Modi and BJP. It seems to have worked like a charm.