JK polls: Ground Report | Will Engineer Rashid emerge as kingmaker or fade into oblivion as 'BJP proxy'?

Sheikh Abdul Rashid, aka Rashid Engineer, evokes mixed emotions in Kashmir. Since the jailed MP came out on bail and hit the campaign trail for the upcoming Assembly polls, his rallies have drawn huge crowds. What is the mood like? Our correspondent traverses the Valley to get a pulse of the Rashid Effect.  Also, read our earlier dispatch where we write about the prospects of the National Conference, which is considered favourites now. 

A new political alternative, a rabble-rousing disruptor or a BJP ‘proxy’ – each of these labels has been slapped on Baramulla MP and Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) chief Sheikh Abdul Rashid. The AIP’s decision to field 34 candidates across J&K in the ongoing Assembly polls and a Delhi court’s subsequent decision to grant Rashid parole for the duration of the poll campaign have added more than an element of intrigue in Kashmir’s already fragile and fragmented political landscape.

For the past five years, Engineer Rashid, as the AIP chief is popularly known, had been an inmate of Delhi’s Tihar Jail for his alleged role in a terror funding case. The long incarceration, coupled with a whisper campaign that he could die in prison, had triggered a wave of sympathy for him during the Lok Sabha poll campaign, paving the way for his massive victory in Baramulla against National Conference vice president Omar Abdullah and People’s Conference chief Sajad Lone; the latter also viewed by many in the Valley as a BJP ‘proxy’.

Then, a fortnight before J&K was to go for the first phase of its poll, a Delhi court granted Rashid interim bail till October 2, allowing the Baramulla MP and former two-term Langate MLA to return to Kashmir for the first time in over five years to campaign for his party’s candidates. The court order immediately triggered rumours of a ‘deal’ between Rashid and the Centre’s BJP-led regime.

Also Read: Will fight Modi till my last breath: Engineer Rashid after release from jail

Poll calculations

Within the next few days, as Rashid unleashed a blitzkrieg of media interactions that saw him pillory political rivals from J&K – the National Conference, the People’s Democratic Party, the People’s Conference – as well as the Congress and even the BJP, it became all too evident that his AIP could upset the poll calculations of all its rivals, entrenched and fledgling alike, in Kashmir. After all, the AIP’s grand entry into the J&K poll arena, riding on Rashid’s newly acquired political aura and a palpable public sympathy for his narrative of justice for political prisoners and finding a lasting solution to the ‘Kashmir issue’, was coming a quarter century after Mufti Mohammed Sayeed founded the PDP in 1999 and ensured that no political party, including his own, ever managed to come to power in J&K with a majority of its own.

Rashid may not be poised to be king just yet, but he was seen as a likely kingmaker. Given the anticipation that, if the Baramulla Lok Sabha poll result was any indicator, the AIP was set for a powerful debut in the J&K assembly, particularly from the assembly segments of north Kashmir, where the party had fielded 15 of its 34 candidates.

But then, a week, as they say, is a long time in politics and Rashid has now been out on the streets of Kashmir for over a fortnight – the suddenness of his parole, the scale of the AIP’s political aspirations, his controversial and sometimes fantastical claims, all making him more vulnerable to the attacks of his political rivals and positioning him for greater public scrutiny than the confines of Tihar Jail ever allowed. The company of his AIP peers, particularly those who are contesting the polls, their past political affiliations and averments – several of them dubious – are all out there now for probing by the electorate and Rashid’s rivals, especially from the NC and the PDP.

The impact of this wider scrutiny, with all the rumours that are par for the course in such terrain, is now palpable across the Valley, more so across the 15 assembly segments of north Kashmir that are due for polling on October 1, the last of J&K’s three-phase poll.

Not a good scenario

And it isn’t looking good for the Engineer and his compatriots, a motley group with no clear ideological compass – some with a past history of singing to New Delhi’s tunes, others from the stock of hardline separatists and yet others who are absolute political greenhorns with nothing to solicit votes on except the name of Sheikh Abdul Rashid.

Also Watch: J&K polls: NC, Congress tie up but will jailed Engineer Rashid spoil the party? 

“His bail has created doubts in everyone’s mind. Kashmir is a very different political arena. People here are wired to be extremely suspicious of politicians, even established ones like the Abdullahs and the Muftis. As long as it was just him (contesting the Baramulla polls from jail), people thought emotionally; a rumour gained ground that the government will have him hanged in jail quietly like it happened with Afzal Guru (in 2013) or that he may die a mysterious death and so, the vote for him was an emotional and not a rational choice. His bail has now given everyone reasons to question – is he Delhi’s agent, is he a BJP proxy, where is he getting so much money to field all these candidates, why isn’t Modi or anyone else in the BJP countering his claims and allegations in rallies, what is his deal with the Jamaat (the AIP is supporting Jamaat-e-Islami backed independents in some seats),” says Ishfaq Wani, a local trader in Kupwara district’s Langate, the constituency Rashid made his poll debut with in 2008.

Engineer’s brother, Sheikh Khurshid, is now the AIP candidate from Langate; pitted against Irfan Panditpuri of Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference, National Conference’s Irshad Ahmad Ganai, PDP’s Syed Ghulam Nabi Bukhari, the Jamaat-e-Islami backed Kalimullah Lone, Workers’ Party chief Mir Junaid and nearly a dozen other candidates.

Dynastic politics

Rashid’s decision to anoint his brother as his successor on the seat too hasn’t gone down well with a section of Langate’s voters and AIP sympathisers elsewhere. “He (Rashid) questions the Abdullahs and the Muftis for strengthening dynastic rule in J&K but has fielded his brother in Langate. If Abrar (Rashid’s son) was not below 25 (the legally permissible age for entering the poll fray), Engineer would have fielded him also,” Mushtaq Lone, who works at parlour just off Langate’s main market, told The Federal.

The mild-mannered Khurshid, a stark contrast to his feisty brother, refutes allegations about the Engineer indulging in dynastic politics but with arguments that have been heard countless times before.

“Engineer saheb did a lot of work for Langate when he represented this seat twice but there is a lot that still needs to be done. We have problems of water supply, of high rates of electricity that people are being forced to pay due to smart meters and despite frequent power outages... a lot of things have to be done for Langate and Engineer saheb felt, I could handle these best because when he was the MLA, I helped him with the constituency’s work and so I am familiar with the area’s problems and the people I have to contact to get things done,” Khurshid told The Federal.

Also Read: Omar urges wise voting after Rashid opens doors to all

Flip-flop on BJP

What has evoked considerable cynicism among voters in north Kashmir, many of whom had thronged to polling booths during the Lok Sabha polls to ensure Rashid’s victory, is the AIP chief’s frequently changing stance on the BJP. When he was released on parole, Rashid had gone all out to critique Modi’s vision of “Naya Kashmir” calling it a “Kashmir of atrocities and bloodshed”. It was a stance that the Engineer’s admirers appreciated and could easily relate to.

In the days that followed, however, the AIP chief has criticised Modi and, in the same breath, also conceded that he was willing to do business with the BJP “if they listen to my view”. In a recent interview, which NC’s Omar Abdullah has been constantly referring to as “proof” of the AIP chief being a “BJP proxy”, Rashid claimed Modi had informed him of the Centre’s plan to abrogate Article 370 over a year before the constitutional provision was severely watered down by Parliament.

While Rashid made the ‘admission’ to insist that the same information had been shared by Modi with the Abdullahs too, Omar has refuted the claim and launched a counter-offensive, asking the AIP chief to come clean on “why you didn’t speak to anyone, to us, about the Centre’s plan when you knew about it a year before it happened... we could have taken steps to avert the abrogation, we could have gone to the Supreme Court”.

Opportunity squandered

Many in north Kashmir now seem to believe that Rashid’s more recent statements and his inability to give a ‘measured response’ when provoked – by his rivals or by journalists – has “exposed him” and that the AIP would suffer electorally for this.

Also Read: Awami Ittehad Party contesting polls to represent people of J&K: Engineer Rashid

“Woh junoon ab khatm ho gaya hai jo Lok Sabha ke waqt tha (the euphoria of the Lok Sabha poll campaign is now over); he has been completely exposed. The Kashmiris been taken for a ride by all political parties for too long and the last thing they want is another leader or party who will betray their trust. Hum sabko bahut umeed thi Engineer se, par woh bhi Dilli se mil gaya (we had high hopes from Engineer but he too has struck a deal with Delhi),” says Haider Lone, owner of a sportswear shop in Baramulla district’s Sopore, which borders the AIP chief’s Langate constituency.

Javed Bhat, a Sopore-based spokesperson of the PDP, believes the AIP and its founder had the potential to give Kashmiris the political alternative that many have been waiting for but “squandered the chance”.

“I’m with the PDP. We are rivals but I would still say that Engineer saheb could have emerged as a new hope for Kashmiris. Look at how people voted for him in Baramulla; everyone, irrespective of their political affiliation, stood with him because they thought yeh ek wahid insaan hai jo sirf Kashmir ke liye sochta hai (he is the only person who thinks only of Kashmir’s interest) but look how he has betrayed that trust. He remained in jail when he was contesting the election; he didn’t even apply for parole then but now when Kashmir has the first chance in a decade to get a stable government, he is out to make trouble. On whose instruction is he doing it,” Bhat said.

Bid to polarise electorate

Some in the Valley believe Rashid’s release on parole had more to do with “further polarising the electorate along the Jammu versus Kashmir axis” than with actually getting the AIP to emerge as a political force.

“Does it not seem strange that the EC kept north Kashmir and a majority of Jammu region for polls in the final phase? We all know how the EC functions; they must have done it on the instruction of the Centre. The BJP knew Rashid will come out and talk about raishumari (plebiscite), restoring ties with Pakistan, paint Jamaat, Hurriyat and all other radical elements as victims and that such a narrative would have a reaction in Hindu-dominated Jammu. The AIP may not gain much electorally but Rashid’s statements would help the BJP retain its hold over Jammu where it knew it was on a weak footing because of militancy shifting that side and Jammu’s economy also suffering due to the Centre and our LG’s (Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha) policies,” asserts Haroon Ahmad Dar, a resident of Rafiabad, in Baramulla.

Rashid’s time out on bail is now coming to an end. He is to report back to Tihar Jail on October 2, six days before the results for the J&K polls would be known. Will he re-emerge from prison as J&K’s kingmaker or become just another Kashmiri leader who arrived on the political firmament with a bang only to go down with a whimper, tainted with the label of a BJP proxy and Delhi agent, remains to be seen.