CPI(M) faces acid test in Kerala by-elections amid Priyanka plunge

The last order signed by K Radhakrishnan, the former minister for Devaswom and SC and ST welfare of Kerala, marked a historic moment for the state by abolishing the practice of calling areas predominantly inhabited by Scheduled Castes members as “Colonies”.

Radhakrishnan, elected as an MP from Chelakkara and the sole left candidate to win in the political upheaval that trounced the Left Font in the state, was known for his quiet and unassuming dedication to his duties. According to many political observers, he is one of the rare leaders who did what he said and genuinely deserves to be the first Dalit chief minister of Kerala.

Battlefield Chelakkara

Radhakrishnan will be succeeded in the Pinarayi cabinet by OR Kelu, the first Adivasi communist leader to become a minister in the state. However, ensuring the election of a successor from the Chelakkara constituency will be the prime challenge for the CPI(M) in Kerala in the coming months.

There will be two assembly byelections held alongside the Wayanad Lok Sabha by-election as Rahul Gandhi is set to vacate the seat for his sister Priyanka to contest. Congress leader Shafi Parambil, the MLA from Palakkad, has also been elected to the Lok Sabha.

Marxist jitters

With Palakkad and Chelakkara heading to by-elections, the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), particularly the CPI(M), faces a crucial test. Nothing short of a decisive victory in Chelakkara will restore some semblance of pride amidst the political debacle they suffered in the general elections, despite holding a formidable majority of 99 out of 140 assembly seats in the state. The stakes are high, and the CPI(M) must rally its forces to secure a win and reaffirm its dominance in Kerala’a seemingly shifting political landscape.

The by-elections mark their crucial moment to assert that the Lok Sabha defeat stemmed solely from widespread opposition to the NDA government, favouring the Congress through factors such as consolidated minority support. Following three days of state unit meetings, including sessions with the state secretariat and state committee, the party attributed its defeat primarily to the erosion of minority votes. They acknowledged that the party had misread public sentiment, which ultimately turned against them during the elections.

BJP fortress?

In Palakkad, the BJP has been emerging as a formidable force ever since their woman leader Shobha Surendra finished second pushing CPI(M)’s former MP NN Krishnadas to the third place in the 2016 Assembly elections. In 2021, by fielding the ‘Metro Man’ E Sreedharan as a surprise candidate, the BJP nearly secured an unexpected victory in the constituency. Ultimately, Shafi Parambil managed to edge out a win, largely due to evident cross-voting in his favour by CPI(M) cadres in several of the Left strongholds.

The Left parties may not even be contemplating making any progress in the Palakkad constituency, but Chelakkara remains a matter of pride for them. Not only is it their sitting seat, but the constituency has favoured the Marxists ever since Radhakrishnan emerged as a popular leader in 1996, when he first contested and became a minister in the EK Nayanar cabinet.

Red bastion

Chelakkara, a reserved constituency for SC/ST, has traditionally been a Congress stronghold, except in 1982 when CK Chakarapani won it for the CPI(M). The shift towards CPI(M) began with the emergence of Radhakrishnan as a youth leader in 1996.

Radhakrishnan won from Chelakkara in 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2021. In 2016, UR Pradeep replaced him as Radhakrishnan took on the role of party district secretary of Thrissur. In 2021, he was recalled by the party for a cabinet position after his successful term as the Assembly Speaker from 2006 to 2011.

Chelakkara segment

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, when the CPI(M) lost all its seats except for Alappuzha, the most significant political loss was in Alathur, which includes the Chelakkara segment.

Congress’ young candidate Remya Haridas defeated CPI(M)’s PK Biju, who had a clean image at the time, by 158,968 votes. Even in Chelakkara, a CPI(M) stronghold, Biju was defeated, with Remya leading by 23,695 votes on Radhakrishnan’s home turf.

Fighter Radhakrishnan

This decision underscored the party’s confidence in him to recapture the constituency, despite the potential risks of losing ministerial duties and facing a by-election. Radhakrishnan’s victory, amidst unfavourable political circumstances, by a margin of 20,111 votes, with Chelakkara providing a 5,000-vote advantage, pales in comparison to his resounding victory in the 2021 Assembly battle where he secured a record majority of 39,400 votes.

The Congress would be banking on the fact that even K Radhakrishnan could only manage a narrow lead of 5,000 votes in Chelakkara, this time suggesting the current unpopularity faced by the CPI(M). The UDF is contemplating fielding Ramya Haridas in the Chelakkara by-polls despite her defeat to Radhakrishnan in Alathur, aiming to leverage the electoral momentum the party has already created.

Priyanka and BJP

Priyanka Gandhi’s entry to Wayanad and the substantial emotional appeal she can generate statewide are crucial considerations in their strategic calculus.

The BJP is also poised optimistically, with their Lok Sabha candidate TN Sarasu, a retired college principal, substantially increasing the vote share by over 10 per cent. Sarasu is expected to be the BJP candidate in the upcoming by-polls also. Many political analysts predict a scenario similar to the Alathur contest, with Radhakrishnan replaced by U.R. Pradeep, who served as MLA of Chelakkara in the former’s absence in 2016.

Congress-vs-BJP

In Palakkad, the main contest will likely be between the Congress and the BJP. The Congress is considering fielding young leaders like Rahul Mankoottathil, the state president of Youth Congress, or former Thrithala MLA VT Balram. There was widespread concern that Shafi’s candidacy in the Lok Sabha election would provide an opportunity for the BJP to revive its prospects in the state assembly -- a fear that has been heightened since the Lok Sabha election results.

In an effort to regain past glory, the CPI(M) may consider experimenting with the Congress veteran rebel AV Gopinath, who has been aligning with the party since last year.

Another actor?

Buoyed by the victory of film star-turned-politician Suresh Gopi, who subsequently became a Union minister from Thrissur, the BJP may be inclined to field someone similar. There is speculation that they might choose Unni Mukundan, a young Malayalam actor with strong Hindutva leanings and a significant following among the Hindu community. Sobha Surendran or C Krishnakumar, who performed strongly in the Palakkad Lok Sabha constituency this time, are among their political choices. The party views them as having a strong chance of winning the seat.

Chelakkara and Palakkad have become pivotal for the CPI(M) and Congress respectively for distinct reasons. A loss in Chelakkara would be a devastating blow for the CPI(M), particularly for Pinarayi Vijayan. Conversely, the Congress would risk backlash if they lose the seat held by Shafi Parambil for the last three terms since 2011, potentially giving ground to the BJP and gifting a seat to them.