‘You would be surprised’: Prashant Kishor predicts big gains for BJP in south, east

With hardly a couple of weeks left for the Lok Sabha elections, poll strategist Prashant Kishor has set the alarm bells ringing for the Congress and the Opposition INDIA bloc, cautioning them of improved BJP performance across six eastern and southern states.

Kishor said though the ruling party is not invincible, the Opposition is running out of chances to stop the BJP juggernaut, pointing to a series of missed opportunities from 2016 to 2018, as well as the pandemic. “If you drop catches, the batter will score a century…especially if he is a good batter,” he told news agency PTI.

Advantage BJP

“They (the BJP) will either be first or second in Telangana...which is a big thing. They will be No. 1 in Odisha for sure. Also, you would be surprised...to my mind the BJP is going to be No. 1 in Bengal as well,” Kishor said, flagging states in each of which the party has lost the most recent assembly election.

He predicted that the BJP may hit double-digit vote share in Tamil Nadu. For context, the BJP's vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha election in Tamil Nadu was 3.6% and only 2.6% in the 2021 assembly polls.

Kishor’s remarks hold significance in light of the fact that the BJP won only 30 of the 164 seats across Telangana, Odisha, Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala in 2019. The only exception was Karnataka, where the BJP won 25 of 28 seats in 2019.

Three of these six states – Bengal, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu – will vote by 2026. Kishor opined that the BJP has made a major push to expand in these states, pointing to frequent visits by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

Slams Opposition

He contended that the Opposition has failed to make a similar push in the northern and western states – the Hindi heartland – where 239 seats are in play and the BJP is dominant.

The Congress suffered a major blow as it lost the assembly elections in three states last year – Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh – and three others - Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat - the year before.

Kishor also red-flagged this concern, stating, “Your fight is in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh... but you are touring Manipur and Meghalaya. Then how you will get success.” His comments were seen as a jibe at Rahul Gandhi and his 'Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra', which traversed through the north-eastern states this year.

Mission impossible?

Though Kishor admitted that the BJP is unlikely to hit its ambitious target of over 400 seats, he suggested that the party would still record an easy win backed by results from heartland strongholds. The BJP “will feel the heat only if the Opposition, especially the Congress, can ensure it loses around 100 seats in the north and west.” But that he told PTI “is not going to happen”.

“By and large, the BJP will be able to hold its ground in these regions,” he predicted.

Kishor downplayed the INDIA bloc while stating that it is neither a “desirable nor effective” option since nearly 350 seats are already witnessing one-on-one contests. The key, he said, is to ensure each Opposition party has a clear “narrative, face, and agenda”.

Rahul's 'reluctance'

He rejected a suggestion that a third straight win will mean the BJP will extend its already long domination of politics. “This is a big illusion...” he said, “As long as the Opposition acts.”

On Rahul's apparent reluctance to contest from the Congress stronghold of Amethi, Kishor warned “if you do not win in UP, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, there is no benefit if you win from Wayanad”. He went on to add: “Strategically... I can say letting Amethi go will only send a wrong message.”

No comments: Congress

On the other hand, reacting to Kishor’s observations, the Congress said it does not comment on consultants’ remarks.

Kishor had earlier said the Congress suffers from structural flaws and Rahul Gandhi should consider stepping back if it does not get the desired results in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

In an interaction with PTI editors, Kishor said Rahul, for all practical purposes, is running the Congress and has been unable to either step aside or let someone else steer the party despite his inability to deliver the results in the last 10 years.

“This, according to me, is also anti-democratic,” said Kishor, who had prepared a revival plan for the Opposition party but walked out due to disagreements between him and its leadership over the execution of his strategy.

(With agency inputs)