Will Rajasthan 'desert' Congress yet again and help BJP score a hat-trick?

After losing power in Rajasthan last year, the Congress faces a daunting task of turning the tables on the ruling BJP in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in the state where the party failed to win even a single seat in 2014 and 2019 general elections.

The BJP emerged victorious on all 25 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state in 2014, when it was the ruling party there. In 2019, a few months after the Congress assumed charge in Jaipur, the BJP still won 24, with the remaining Lok Sabha seat going to ally Rashtriya Loktantrik Party.

Rajasthan will go to the polls on April 19 and 26, the first two phases of the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP appears to be in a dominant position again this time, particularly after sweeping the assembly polls just months back.

BJP eyes hat-trick

It now hopes that its “double-engine government” narrative will click with the electorate, and the euphoria surrounding the consecration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya will help it achieve a hat-trick.

However, it seems easier said than done this time. Despite the party winning 115 of the 200 seats in the November 2023 assembly polls, it faced an embarrassment only weeks later. It lost the Karanpur assembly seat, even after it had elevated its candidate there by making him a minister.

More recently, Churu MP Rahul Kaswan switched sides after the BJP didn't give him the ticket again. Now in power in Rajasthan, the BJP also faces rising expectations from sections in communities like Meena, Gujjars and Jats.

Some in the Meena community are unhappy that Kirodi Lal Meena, who seemed to be in the race for the CM's post, didn't make it. Gujjars were looking for better representation in the new BJP cabinet, after their disillusionment with the Congress for “ignoring” Sachin Pilot.

Moreover, Jats from Bharatpur and Dholpur districts kicked off a stir in January, seeking their entry into the Other Backward Class (OBC) quota at the central level.

No end to Congress’ woes

However, these are small issues compared to the ones faced by the Congress, whose strength in Rajasthan has been sapped by the running feud between former CM Ashok Gehlot and his one-time deputy Sachin Pilot. The exodus of some key Congress leaders just ahead of the polls has only added to the party’s woes.

Former minister and four-time MLA Mahendrajeet Singh Malviya resigned from the Congress last month and joined the BJP. Jyoti Mirdha, who left the Congress before the assembly elections last year, has got the BJP ticket from Nagaur.

These are not the only leaders to have made the switch. Several Rajasthan Congress leaders, including former ministers Rajendra Yadav and Lal Chand Kataria, and former party MP Karan Singh Yadav, too joined the BJP.

Former Congress MLAs Richhpal Mirdha, his son Vijaypal Mirdha, former independent MLA Alok Beniwal and former state Seva Dal chief Suresh Chaudhary too left the Congress to join the ruling party.

Malviya's defection could help the BJP to cement its position in the Vagad region of Banswara and Dungarpur, an area where Bharat Adivasi Party is gaining influence.

Mirdha is also expected to counter the influence of Hanuman Beniwal's Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) which won the Nagaur seat as a BJP ally in 2019, but parted ways over the farmers' issue.

Road ahead for Congress

Aiming to stage a comeback in these Lok Sabha elections, the Congress will be hoping that Gehlot’s political acumen and Pilot’s popularity among youth and Gujjars will help the party make a dent in BJP’s vote bank.

However, a power tussle between these two top leaders has taken a toll on the party’s strength over the last five years. The party also lacks in terms of organisational structure and booth management as compared to its arch rival BJP.

The Congress is finding it difficult to counter BJP allegations on minority appeasement and corruption during the last Congress government in the state. The exodus of senior leaders like Malviya reflects poorly on the party and it may take a toll on its poll prospects.

The Congress will try to cash in on the discontent brewing among the Gujjar community, which feels it hasn't got the representation it deserved in the state's new BJP government.

First list out

In its first list for 15 seats, the BJP retained eight MPs and gave tickets to new faces on seven seats. Two of these seven seats had fallen vacant after the sitting MPs won the 2023 assembly elections.

Altogether, five MPs were fielded by the BJP in the assembly polls. In contrast, the Congress wants some of its prominent MLAs to contest the Lok Sabha polls, sources say. But they appear reluctant to take the plunge.

There was also a buzz that the Congress may field both Gehlot and Pilot in the Lok Sabha polls to galvanise the party cadres. However, the party decided against it as they would have ended being tied to their respective constituencies instead of playing a larger role to ensure party’s triumph.

The party, however, fielded Gehlot’s son Vaibhav from Jalore constituency. The party also allotted ticket to Rahul Kaswan, who quit BJP to join Congress, from Churu. The first list of 10 Congress candidates from Rajasthan also comprises names of three sitting MLAs, including Lalit Yadav from Alwar Lok Sabha seat, Harish Meena from Tonk Lok Sabha seat and Brijendra Ola from Jhunjhunu Lok Sabha seat.

Top leaders in command

Meanwhile, there are reports that the Congress high command may assign areas of responsibilities to its top leaders in the state in a plan that also aims to bring together its faction-ridden state unit.

Under the plan, Gehlot will be incharge of election management in Jodhpur, Nagaur, Bikaner and Pali districts. Pilot, who left the Gehlot cabinet in 2020, will handle Dausa, Tonk and Dhaulpur districts.

State unit chief Govind Singh Dotasra is set to be given responsibilities of Sikar and Jaipur districts. Former assembly speaker CP Joshi has been assigned responsibilities of Udaipur, Rajsamand and Bhilwara districts.

“Our responsibilities would include intensive campaigning for the party candidates, devising strategies for the area and mobilising the supporters and the voters,” said one of the leaders, pleading anonymity