The Federal survey: BJP sway over Maharashtra, Gujarat looks impenetrable
The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey suggests Congress may lose some more seats in the 2 western states this year vis-à-vis 2019
The BJP, which performed well in the Lok Sabha election in Gujarat and Maharashtra in 2019, looks set for an encore in the upcoming polls. Both in terms of vote share and seats won, the party seems to be making gains, while the opposition Congress appears to be losing ground, suggests The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey.
Also watch The Federal's panel discussion with political experts here.
Maharashtra: Five-year churn
For Maharashtra, the Lok Sabha elections come after a tumultuous period for state politics. Between 2019 and 2024, two major parties have cleaved vertically — the Shiv Sena, between factions led by Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde respectively, and the National Congress Party (NCP) factions led by Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar, respectively.
Funnily, the political arena in the 2019 general election was vastly different from now. Then, it was a pitched battle between the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, in which the Shiv Sena was a member, and the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), in which the NCP was a key ally. Today, one faction each of the Sena and the NCP is allied with the BJP.
Electorally, the Congress seems to be paying the price for all the churn, as the survey numbers indicate. The BJP’s vote share in Maharashtra is likely to be 36 per cent, over twice the 17 per cent vote share of the Congress. Adding the vote shares of allies Shiv Sena UBT (10 per cent) and Sharad Pawar NCP (6.4) may be of little help to the grand old party.
The Federal survey predicts that the BJP-led NDA will bag 40 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra, with the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) bagging the balance seats. The MVA is a coalition of the Congress, and the Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray factions of the NCP and Shiv Sena, respectively.
Gujarat: Status quo likely
Modi-land Gujarat has no surprise to offer in the upcoming Lok Sabha election, indicates The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey.
In terms of vote share, the BJP looks set to bag 66 per cent, a slight improvement over the 63 per cent it bagged in 2019. The Congress, on the other hand, looks set to lose vote share this time, from 33 per cent in 2019 to 23 per cent now.
The AAP, which made an ambitious attempt to expand its footprint in the state in 2019, is yet to make any headway there, the survey suggests.
Gujarat, which gave all its 26 Lok Sabha seats to the BJP in 2019, is set to repeat the honours this year too, the survey further says.
What’s on tomorrow
To read the previous survey-related articles and watch the panel discussions, click here.
Tomorrow, we will be predicting the numbers for two states that have a lot in common — history, culture, and so on — and yet are vastly different from each other politically. Watch this space!