The Federal survey | BJP encore in Karnataka; BJD hits nadir in Odisha

When it comes to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), expect the unexpected. What else explains the projected Lok Sabha tally for the BJP in a state like Karnataka – where the saffron party was pummelled by the Congress in the Assembly elections months ago – and in Odisha, where the Naveen Patnalk-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD) enjoys considerable clout?

The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey says the BJP will sweep Karnataka in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls by winning 26 seats (in fact, bettering the 2009 tally) out of 28, and in Odisha, it’s expected to bag 20 out of the 21 seats, pushing the BJD to just one seat, its lowest tally ever.

Karnataka: History repeats?

In a way, if you turn back the history pages, The Federal survey does not come as a surprise as the state’s voting patterns in the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections have never been the same. This time, apart from increasing one more seat (in 2019, it had 25 seats), the survey says the BJP will increase its vote share from 51.67 to 57.27, upping by six percent. In fact, the BJP has been raising its vote share in the parliamentary elections since 2009.

Ruling the state with a landslide win (135 seats), the Congress’ vote share is expected to go down by four percent (32.11 to 28.45) and win just two seats. In 2019 too, it had just one seat.

The survey also says at least 68 percent of people want Narendra Modi as PM, with 35 percent rooting for Rahul Gandhi.

As per the Federal survey, the biggest loser seems to be Janata Dal (S), whose vote share is expected to tumble by at least 8 percent (from 9.74 to 1) and draw a blank in seats despite an alliance with the BJP this time.

Odisha: BJD’s swansong?

In a way, it does not matter who wins the Lok Sabha polls in Odisha as the BJD is largely expected to side with the BJP if the NDA is voted back to power at the Centre. Also, quite bafflingly, the BJD recently helped the BJP win a Rajya Sabha seat (Railway Minister Ashiwini Vaishnav).

But it’s a different story at the state level, where the BJP and BJD are fierce rivals. However, the Federal survey says the BJP is making deep inroads into BJD pockets and will batter the latter by winning all the seats, barring one. That is 20 out of 21. The BJD has to console itself with one seat.

The vote share story, too, hints at the large dip in BJD numbers and the swing in BJP’s tally. The survey says the BJP’s vote share is set to go up at least 16 percent, while the BJD’s is expected to drop by a mindboggling 23 percent (from 42.80 to 19.35).

The Congress, a distant third player, is expected to draw a blank (in 2019, It had one seat) with an impressive vote share of nearly 10 per cent.

Coming tomorrow