The Federal survey | It's 100% for BJP in Delhi, Haryana; AAP growing in Punjab

When Delhi and Punjab went for Assembly elections, in 2020 and 2022, respectively, the BJP fought tooth and nail, but lost.

In Haryana, the BJP, as the ruling party, could be expected to face some anti-incumbency. The state has witnessed two big issues in recent months — the farmers’ agitation seeking legal guarantee for MSP (minimum support price), and women wrestlers protesting against Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, former president of the Wrestling Federation of India, whom they’ve accused of sexual harassment.

And yet, when it comes to Lok Sabha elections, the BJP appears set for a smooth sail in all three states, The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey indicates.

In Delhi, nearly 67 per cent of the voters plan to vote for the BJP, The Federal survey suggests. This is a roughly 10 percentage point rise over its 2019 showing in the national capital.

On the other hand, the Congress and AAP appear to be seeing a dip in vote share of 9.5 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively.

The Federal survey predicts that the BJP will bag all the seven Lok Sabha seats this year, just like it did in 2019.

Haryana: It’s 10/10 for BJP

The Haryana vote-share performance of the BJP is likely to dip from over 58 per cent in 2019 to nearly 53 per cent this year. The Federal survey says. However, rival Congress is also showing a decline from the 2019 level of 28.5 to 21 per cent now.

Irrespective of its vote-share dip, the BJP is set to sweep Haryana, getting all the 10 Lok Sabha seats this year, The Federal survey predicts.

Punjab appears to be the only state north of Vindhyas putting up some resistance to the BJP show. The Federal survey suggests that 26.9 per cent of the Punjab voters will vote for AAP, while 27.9 per cent go for the BJP. Both the parties are making sizeable gains from the 2019 levels. The Congress, on the other hand, is likely to see its vote-share decrease from 40.6 per cent in 2019 to 17.5 per cent this year, The Federal survey says.

Shiromani Akali Dal, in an on-again-off-again alliance with the BJP, is predicted to see its vote-share slide from 27.8 per cent in 2019 to 4.5 per cent this year.

Of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab, seven will go to the BJP, five to the AAP, and one to the Congress, The Federal survey predicts. In the last three years the AAP has grown considerably in Punjab leading to its impressive win in the Assembly elections held in 2022.

Coming up tomorrow

To read the previous survey-related articles and watch the panel discussions, click here.

Tomorrow, we will cover two states ruled by the BJP, led by heavyweight chief ministers quickly moving up the Sangh Parivar hierarchy. Will they have a greater impact on the voter than Narendra Modi? Watch this space!