The Federal survey | Bihar, Jharkhand set for a saffron tsunami
The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey predicts Congress increasing its vote-share in the two states, and yet being no match for BJP
The BJP hand has been unmistakable in the happenings in Bihar and Jharkhand in recent weeks.
In Bihar, Nitish Kumar made yet one more of his infamous U-turns, severing ties with Mahagathbandhan allies RJD and the Congress to join hands with the BJP. His party JD(U) is now running the government with the BJP, marking the second flip-flop in less than four years.
In Jharkhand, the Enforcement Directorate arrested Hemant Soren over corruption cases. Amid speculation that the BJP would swoop in to form the government — fuelled by inordinate delays in the Raj Bhavan swearing in the next Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) chief minister — Champai Soren took up the post.
Will the BJP be successful in the two states in the upcoming general elections?
The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey suggests the BJP will sweep the Lok Sabha elections in Bihar and Jharkhand. Interestingly, the Congress could make some progress in terms of vote-share in both states, but this may not translate into more seats for the party.
At 45 per cent vote-share, the BJP will emerge the clear winner in the upcoming Lok Sabha election, The Federal survey suggests.
Coming next is its now-ally JD(U), at nearly 18 per cent. For the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U), this represents a fall from the 22 per cent vote share it bagged in the 2019 general election. The JD(U) is also likely to see a sharp decline in terms of seats won, from 16 in 2019 two in the coming election.
The Congress, on the other hand, is likely to increase its vote-share from nearly 8 per cent in 2019 to nearly 12 per cent this year. Its alliance partner, Lalu Prasad-led RJD, may see its vote-share slip from nearly 16 per cent in 2019 to 10 per cent now, the survey says.
The Federal survey predicts the BJP will bag 37 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar, with the JD(U) getting two and the Congress, one.
Jharkhand: It’s BJP all the way
The BJP is expected to get an over 65 per cent vote-share this time, says The Federal survey. It is a substantial increase over the nearly 52 per cent vote-share it witnessed in 2019.
The Congress will see its vote-share increase marginally, from 15.8 per cent to 16.4 per cent, and yet be no match for the BJP, the survey indicates.
The JMM, which currently runs the coalition government in the state, will see its vote-share in the Lok Sabha polls nearly halve, from 11.7 per cent to 6 per cent.
The BJP is expected to make a clean sweep in the state, bagging all the 14 Lok Sabha seats, says The Federal survey.
Coming up tomorrow
To read the previous survey-related articles and watch the panel discussions, click here.
Tomorrow, we will cover two states that have one thing in common — they’re not ruled by the BJP. Yet, the respective state governments have vastly different equations with the Narendra Modi government at the Centre.
Will this impact the Lok Sabha poll results? Watch this space!