The Federal survey | All fingers point to Modi 3.0

Ten years after Narendra Modi first entered Parliament, going straight to the Prime Minister’s chair, he looks set for a third tenure, our opinion poll suggests.

Even as the Opposition parties led by the Congress are trying to strengthen their INDIA coalition to offer combined resistance to the ruling party ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, it appears that the BJP’s electoral juggernaut will roll on undeterred.

The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey predicts that the BJP will meet some strong resistance in the South. Still, it will have a relatively easy victory in the rest of the country.

About The Federal survey

To gauge the Indian voter’s political perceptions and voting preferences, The Federal and its sister concern Puthiyathalaimurai engaged Apt Research to conduct a nationwide opinion poll. We gathered information region-wise, state-wise, and even zone-wise within states. Over the past two weeks, we have published data-filled text stories on the website, and panel discussions on The Federal’s YouTube page.

Of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, 509 were covered by the survey. The remaining 34 constituencies are located in states and Union Territories across the country, where the survey could not be conducted due to geographical and law-and-order constraints.

Click here to read all our exclusive survey-related articles and watch the panel discussions.

North Zone: Substantial leap from 2019 for BJP

The Federal survey expects the BJP to bag 102 of the 110 Lok Sabha seats in four states/UTs in the North — Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Delhi. While it is expected to increase its seat share from 83 in 2019 to 102 now, the Congress is likely to see its seat share plunge from nine to two. 

The Akali Dal, Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party are also set to see their seats falling from 2019 levels. On the other hand, the Aam Aadmi Party, which has established governments in Delhi and Punjab over the past decade, appears to be gaining strength in the Lok Sabha, too. Its seat tally will likely rise from one in 2019 to five this year.

The BJP is set to win most seats in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh.

South Zone: Congress puts up a fight

Of the 129 seats in the five southern states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, the BJP and Congress will get an even 32, The Federal survey predicts. The arch-rivals are also likely to increase their seat share from 2019 levels — the BJP from 29, and the Congress from 23.

The TDP-led also looks set to increase its Lok Sabha tally, from three in 2019 to 11 now. The DMK front, which appears poised for a convincing win this year, will, however, see its share of Members of Parliament slip from 38 in 2019 to 30 in 2024. Rival AIADMK is also set to see its tally rise from one to five.

Losing out this time are the YSR Congress Party and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi, among others.

Of the 131 Lok Sabha seats in Odisha, West Bengal, Assam, Bihar and Jharkhand, the BJP will bag 112, predicts The Federal survey. The saffron party, which has been working hard to increase its presence in the East, had won 86 seats in 2019. The Congress will see its seats fall from nine to five, it is projected.

Among the biggest losers in the East are the regional satraps in Odisha and West Bengal — Naveen Patnaik and Mamata Banerjee, respectively. While Patnaik’s BJD will witness a dramatic reduction in its seat share from 12 in 2019 to just one now, Banerjee’s TMC will suffer a fall, too — from 22 to 13.

West Zone: It’s mostly status quo

For the purpose of this survey, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Maharashtra are categorised as West Zone.

Here, no party is likely to witness any shock result, with the BJP and Congress seeing seat tallies almost on par with 2019 levels, says The Federal survey.

Of the 139 Lok Sabha seats in the five states, the BJP looks set to win 128, against the Congress’s 11. Considering all these states are currently ruled by the BJP, the projections come as little surprise. 

All-India: And, the prize goes to…

The BJP looks set to sweep the election with 364-370 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha election, The Federal Survey predicts. This is more or less what the Target 370 that Modi has been projecting in recent weeks.

The BJP’s dream of reaching 400 seats with allies in the NDA coalition may also not be an impossible one.

The Congress will bag 50-55 seats, says the survey. Along with its INDIA bloc allies such as DMK, TMC, AAP and SP, it may get around 90 seats.

It may be noted that this survey was carried out in the period from December 2023 to January 2024. Various incidents since then have hit the national headlines, from the Ram Mandir prana pratishtha in Ayodhya to the the Sandeshkhali protests in West Bengal to the tabling of the Maratha Reservation Bill in Maharashtra to the farmers' agitation in Punjab and Haryana.  Nitish Kumar's JD(U) has returned to the NDA fold while the Congress has stitched up seat-sharing arrangements with more INDIA bloc partners.

What remains to be seen is how far these factors will make an impression on the voter, and to what extent that will make a change in voting intention, especially in a Parliament election.