Odisha: The big BJD-BJP battle to win women votes

As Sambalpur prepares to hold, on May 25, simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly polls – Union Education Minister Dharmendra is the BJP MP candidate from here – Badal and Prabhashini are squabbling more than ever over who they should vote for.

Badal is a BJP supporter who intends to cast his ballot in favour of the Lotus symbol. But Prabhashini's support lies with the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) of chief minister Naveen Patnaik, and the political differences in the less-than-modest Sahu household are leading to serious differences. The couple has stopped talking to each other after a bad shouting match.

Similar domestic discord is increasingly rocking many homes in Odisha where a spirited BJP is challenging to end the long rule of Patnaik and his BJD. The BJP is making an aggressive push to woo voters and there are signs that sizeable sections of men – both in rural and urban areas – are being swayed by its campaign. But can the same be said about women who number some 1.65 crore out of Odisha's 3.35 crore voters?

Not everyone is certain, and which way the women will vote remains the biggest question mark of the elections currently being held in the state over four phases. There is near unanimity though that women, given their sizeable strength, will perhaps decide the result.

The importance of women voters to seal the outcome in Odisha cannot be overstated. Compared to earlier times, such as in 2004 and 2009, they voted in the state in larger numbers than men in the 2014 and 2019 elections. In 2014, the turnout of women voters was 74.5% as against 73.2% of men. In 2019, the gap got wider with women voter turnout being 74.2%. The turnout of men, in comparison, was 71.8%.

The impressive women's turnout is credited to initiatives undertaken by Patnaik to empower them. His government's signature scheme has been the six lakh-odd self-help groups (SHGs) that have been set up across the state since Patnaik became the chief minister in 2000 to help some 70 lakh women become entrepreneurs and earn a decent livelihood by allowing them to access interest-free loans.

The scheme is generally considered to be a success. Though data from the fifth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) shows an alarming increase in the incidence of anaemia besides other things among women in the state, it also indicates the growing participation of women in decision-making in their respective families. According to NFHS-5, it now tops 90 per cent compared to some 81 per cent in NFHS-4.

The growing clout of women is said to have translated into a greater political voice for them, regarded now as a solid vote bank for Patnaik. More women are empowered to make their own political choices, and it is generally believed that it is their support that has primarily helped Patnaik to win five consecutive terms as the chief minister. If he wins again, Patnaik will become India's longest-serving chief minister ever in a couple of months, breaking the record set by Sikkim's Pawan Chamling.

The question now is whether women still support Patnaik in that large numbers as they did earlier.

Going by the example of Prabhashini of Rairakhol, many still do – against the wishes of the men at home greatly upset over the manner Patnaik has chosen to thrust on the state his former secretary VK Pandian as his successor. Pandian is a Tamilian and many view him as an outsider who is seeking to usurp power through the back door.

Many women too could be upset likewise. But Prabhashini, who has found work and a decent income courtesy of an SHG, is not one of them. Several women gathered in the small office of an SHG in Sambalpur town were also not. For them, Patnaik and Pandian were both Gods, having got them livelihoods through their scheme called Mission Shakti. They insisted they would vote for the BJD. What if their husbands pushed them to vote otherwise? We will not, said the women. Instead, we will stop cooking meals for them, they maintained.

Patnaik's BJD is clearly banking on women vote bank to overcome the challenge posed by the BJP. The BJP, however, is looking to break Patnaik's stranglehold over women and has announced its own slew of schemes to woo women voters, including the Subhadra Yojana that promises monetary benefits.

The battle to win women's votes is on in Odisha in earnest. Meanwhile, family discords are intensifying too, as in the home of Badal and Prabhashini. Neither side is willing to yield ground as electoral battle lines get drawn more firmly.