Not NC-PDP battle, but a clash of candidates awaits Srinagar Lok Sabha seat

A fleet of honking cars followed the National Conference (NC) candidate on the city’s well-known 2.8 km-long-flyover. Slogans were raised in favour of the restoration of Article 370 by NC sympathisers, as they waved the party’s red flag with its prominent white plough symbol.

Contrast this to the scenes at Srinagar’s historic Clock Tower (Ghanta Ghar) the previous day (April 24), when supporters of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) gathered at the city centre, raising emotive slogans and hailing Waheed Ur Rehman Parra, their candidate for the Srinagar Lok Sabha seat, and waving the party’s green flag with its pen and inkpot symbol. The PDP supporters also accompanied Parra to the deputy commissioner’s office to file the nomination for his candidacy.

Signs of normalcy?

One way of analysing these two scenes would be to claim that political activities seem to be staging a comeback on the streets of Kashmir after a yawning gap of five years.

Since August 5, 2019, fear and silence have been the two dominant emotions and sentiments prevalent on Kashmir’s political landscape. Now, Kashmir’s two young politicians claim they are contesting elections to “fight fear” and “break the cycle of silence”. Another way of looking at the new developments is to understand that the authorities are perhaps allowing space for a particular brand of politics in post-2019 Kashmir to showcase ‘normalcy’.

On paper, the electoral contest for the Srinagar Lok Sabha seat may seem triangular in nature, with Apni Party’s Ashraf Mir also in the fray. But in practical terms, it is essentially a battle between the two young, educated and assertive faces of the NC and the PDP — Agha Ruhullah Mehdi and Waheed Ur Rehman Parra — respectively.

Both are popular crowd-pullers among sections of the region’s population, and they are effective communicators, reasonably well-read and have been vocal about protecting Jammu and Kashmir’s cultural and political identities, land and jobs. They also remain consistent in their narratives to fight for the restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status and semi-autonomy.

Breaking the cycle of silence

Mehdi, a former cabinet minister and three-time member of the erstwhile Jammu and Kashmir legislative assembly, is a soft-spoken politician from central Kashmir’s Budgam district. He enjoys popularity across the ideological spectrum for his “moving and consistent” narrative in favour of Articles 370 and 35A.

As a popular Shia leader, Mehdi is respected even by his political and ideological opponents. In one of her recent interviews, Iltija Mufti, daughter of former chief minister and PDP president Mehbooba Mufti, showered accolades on Mehdi while classifying him as “one of my favourite politicians” and adding that she enjoys “listening to his speeches”.

In his political speeches and media interviews, Mehdi talks about “restoring the dignity” of the people of Jammu and Kashmir, reclaiming the lost political space, keeping the political fight alive for the restoration of the region’s special standing and semi-autonomy, a stronger federal structure, offering hope to people in testing times, and speaking up for the valley’s young undertrial prisoners currently languishing in various prisons.

Additionally, he talks about development and his objective to expose the “façade of normalcy” and “peace of graveyards” in Kashmir.

“I am not bothered about the election results. My election campaign for parliamentary elections provides me an opportunity to mobilise my people, reclaim the lost political space, and offer hope to a society that has turned hopeless and helpless since August 5, 2019,” Mehdi told The Federal, adding, “Supreme Court’s verdict on 370 is not the end of the road for me. I will keep the political fight alive.”

Kashmiris are not happy: Parra

There is not much of a difference between what Mehdi and Parra articulate and claim in their political narratives. Parra insists on defeating the sense of silence in Kashmir and to vote to convey a message to New Delhi that Kashmiris are “not happy”.

“People are not happy. They are silent. Our silence should not be misconstrued or interpreted as our happiness or consent for what happened on August 5, 2019. I urge you to treat this election as a referendum to convey your message to Delhi,” Parra said in his brief and passionate speech.

Parra has been asserting that the silence of Kashmiris is their protest. He is liked by sections of Kashmir’s youth in southern districts of the Union territory, most notably in Pulwama, his hometown, and Shopian. As president of the PDP’s youth wing and former secretary of the Jammu and Kashmir Sports Council, Parra was successful in cementing his relationship with a section of Kashmir’s youth.

Urging voters and supporters to vote for the PDP, Parra said, “This party (the PDP) will speak up for the youths of Jammu and Kashmir. I will talk about peace and dignity of my people.”

Amid slogans such as “bandooq se na goli se, baat banegi boli se (Neither guns nor bullets, only dialogue is the path ahead”), Parra launched a diatribe against the NC, claiming that their three parliamentarians (Farooq Abdullah, Hasnain Masoodi and Akbar Lone) remained silent (from 2019 to 2024) and did not speak up for the rights of the people of Jammu and Kashmir in Parliament.

"We have to fight this election for our Kashmir, for our voice; spare 10 minutes please to go out and cast your vote to protect your land, identity, and voice,” he said passionately.

Will 'political prisoner' identity garner support for Parra? 

Thriving in the political limelight from 2008 till 2019, Parra faced a huge challenge in November 2019 when the National Investigation Agency (NIA) booked him under “terrorism charges”.

After securing bail in January 2021, the Jammu and Kashmir police’s counter-intelligence wing, CIK, arrested him again under the stringent Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act or UAPA. He spent months in incarceration at Srinagar’s Joint Interrogation Centre (JIC) before being moved to Central Jail.

He wasn’t allowed to accompany his ailing father and young nephew when they were shifted to Delhi hospitals for treatment on separate occasions. Both passed away. At the time of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, his previous status as a ‘political prisoner’ is bound to generate some sort of a sympathy wave in his favour.

It is another matter that Parra’s PDP was very much a part of the coalition government as a senior partner of BJP from March 2015 till June 2018 in Jammu and Kashmir, while NC’s Omar Abdullah served as Union minister of external affairs from 2001 to 2002 under the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government in New Delhi.

BJP’s A, B, C team

Ironically, both the NC and the PDP are accusing parties like the People’s Conference led by Sajad Lone, the Apni Party led by Altaf Bukhari and the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) led by Ghulam Nabi Azad as the BJP’s ‘A’ or ‘B’ teams.

Meanwhile, in his latest dig at the PDP, Omar Abdullah described the party as the ‘BJP’s C-team’.

Lone is largely perceived as “Delhi’s poster boy” in Kashmir. That is why his party’s main slogan is ‘Dignity and Development’ and Lone generally shies away from talking overtly about Jammu and Kashmir's special status, semi-autonomy, restoration of statehood and issues about youths in prison among others.

Interestingly, the slogans used by the PDP and the NC are an appropriation of the Hurriyat Conference’s once-popular slogans.

For instance, Syed Ali Geelani’s supporters would chant “Na bikne wala, Geelani; Na jhukne walaGeelani (The one who isn’t up for sale, Geelani; the one who doesn’t bend, Geelani)" slogan, and now the PDP sympathisers are chanting “Na bikne wali, Mehbooba; Na jhukne wali, Mehbooba". Many other Hurriyat slogans are being tweaked by the two major unionist parties to woo their supporters.

High voter turnout expected in Srinagar 

Historically, the voter turnout in the Srinagar seat has remained abysmal but it goes up during the assembly elections. Given the political vacuum, political pundits are expecting the voter turnout to be on the higher side this time around for a variety of reasons.

Since the political narratives and rhetoric are almost similar, it is not a battle between the NC and the PDP; it is rather a personality contest between Mehdi and Parra in Srinagar.

There are more than 17 lakh voters, of which two lakhs are first-time voters, in the Srinagar parliamentary constituency. The number of male and female voters is almost the same (more than eight lakh, each) while 61 voters are trans-genders. If the narrative or sympathy wave is favouring Parra, factors such as strong cadre, popularity and respect may work for Mehdi.

The NC has its tried-and-tested and robust voter base in Khanyar, Zadibal, Habba Kadal, Shalteng, Chadoora, Chrar-e-Sharief, Khan Sahib, Zadibal, Dal Lake, Ganderbal, Kangan, and parts of Sonwar in Srinagar and Pulwama.

On the other hand, Parra’s PDP is very strong in parts of Pulwama, Shopian and Pampore in southern Kashmir, and has decent support among the new-age voters even in parts of Srinagar outskirts. If there is voter turnout anywhere between 40 and 50 per cent and not the usual 14 per cent, both Mehdi and Parra can garner over two or even three lakh votes.

As far as the Apni party candidate Ashraf Mir is concerned, he is poised to receive some votes in parts of Shalimar, Harvan, Amira Kadal, Chanapora and Sonwar etc in Srinagar. He is expected to be a distant third in terms of overall votes obtained.

All said and done, it is a closely contested battle between Mehdi and Parra with the former enjoying a slender edge due to a strong perception about him being a lone warrior on article 370 and 35A. This combined with his party’s strong cadre base in Srinagar Lok Sabha constituency, and likelihood of getting the Shia vote (about one lakh) will help to comfortably add votes to his kitty.