Modi, Manmohan and more: All that changed between Election 2014 and 2024

With the Election Commission all set to announce the schedule for the Lok Sabha elections 2024 on Saturday (March 16), all eyes are on how the Opposition parties, with their inherent conflicts, could take on the 24x7 election machine of the BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

While the BJP has consolidated its Hindutva vote bank with the consecration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, the Opposition parties seem totally clueless about countering the narrative set by the BJP and its organisational fountainhead RSS. The Congress led by Rahul Gandhi is trying to rake up the issue of rising joblessness and widening rich-poor divide during its Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, but the big questions is whether these issues will find traction among the masses in the highly charged atmosphere in the aftermath of the CAA notification just prior to the Lok Sabha polls.

With the Opposition unity in tatters, the BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears confident of retaining power as they have taken to the poll fray with an aim of securing 370 seats for the party and over 400 for NDA.

Modi eyes hat-trick

These elections will be historic in more ways than one. Modi is eyeing to equal former PM Jawaharlal Nehru’s record of securing three consecutive electoral triumphs in the Lok Sabha polls. Nehru then won three consecutive national polls—in 1952, 1957 and 1962. He died, while in office, in 1964.

BJP’s Atal Bihari Vajpayee became PM thrice, but the sum total of his three tenures was only a little over six years. In 1996, he had to quit in 13 days because he couldn’t muster the numbers he thought he would. In 1999, the AIADMK pulled the plug on his government after 13 months, but he continued in office amid the Kargil conflict. He only had one full five-year tenure (1999-2004).

Notably, a lot has changed in the country in the last one decade in terms of electoral politics. Scams like 2G spectrum, AgustaWestland and coal scam are no more issues in the elections, particularly if the charges are against the ruling BJP. Interestingly, PM Modi consistently targets Opposition parties for resorting to corruption.

Changing landscape

The political landscape of the country has undergone a lot of change over the last 10 years. Many key leaders have passed away while others have taken a backseat due to health reasons.

Having led the Congress to two successive polls victories in 2004 and 2009, former party chief Sonia Gandhi has bid adieu to electoral politics and instead opted to take the Rajya Sabha route this time apparently due to health reasons.

The big move marked the end of an era that saw the leader represent Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha, first as the parliamentarian from Amethi for one term and then from Rae Bareli for the next four. The former Congress chief began her parliamentary stint by fighting from Bellary in Karnataka and Amethi in Uttar Pradesh in 1999, winning both seats but retaining the latter.

In 2004, she shifted to Rae Bareli as her son Rahul Gandhi made his Lok Sabha poll debut from Amethi. She won the elections in 2009, 2014 and 2019.

Old guards and new comers

Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh completed his Rajya Sabha term and is unlikely to return to public life in view of his age and health related issues.

Meanwhile, the BJP also lost a host of its leaders in the last 10 years, including former Union ministers Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj and Manohar Parrikar. The party also lost one of its tallest leaders in Maharashtra, Gopinath Munde, in a tragic road accident within days of him being sworn in as the Union minister.

Several new young leaders have sprung up, too. Yogi Adityanath, never taken too seriously as a politician earlier, became the surprise choice of the BJP as Uttar Pradesh CM, and he has become stronger over the years. Nitin Gadkari, seen as a promising 'performing' minister, has been relegated to the second rung. Bureaucrats have turned politicians, like Foreign Minister S Jaishankar, and politicians have gone back to their original professions, like Gautam Gambhir and Harsh Vardhan. 

UPA turns INDIA

The Opposition parties led by the Congress came together on a single platform last year to rebrand United Progressive Alliance (UPA) to Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc. However, the possibility that it will revive fortunes of these parties appears bleak.

The internal feud over seat-sharing talks is gradually unravelling. Leading the dissent is TMC chief Mamata Banerjee who has resorted to her typical “ekla chalo re” approach in West Bengal. The TMC, which initially agreed to concede only 2 out of 42 seats to the Congress in West Bengal, has now decided to contest all 42 seats independently.

Similarly the AAP has decided to go solo in Punjab, ending months of stalemate with the Congress. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who played a pivotal role in bringing together Opposition parties from different states to constitute INDIA bloc, has retunred to the NDA fold yet again. Even the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray has been demanding a larger share of seats despite facing a split within its ranks.

With hardly any time left for the Lok Sabha elections, the Opposition INDIA bloc is in complete disarray. The Congress is yet to seal its seat-sharing deal with its allies in various states even as the former party chief Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra is yet to culminate.

NDA on revival mode

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) which lost one constituent after another after it retained power in 2019 is now on a revival mode with the saffron party wooing its old partners back with an eye on grabbing 400 Lok Sabha seats.

It was Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who led the ‘ghar wapsi’ drive for the alliance as he did a volte face and returned to the NDA just ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. He has been in and out of the NDA over the last few years and this was the fourth time in the last 11 years that he switched political sides in the state. The BJP also succeeded in bringing back TDP to the NDA fold while also earning a new ally in Andhra Pradesh in the form of Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party. The BJP is also holding talks with the BJD in Odisha. Speculations are also rife that the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) may also join hands with the BJP and return to the NDA ahead of the general elections.

In Karnataka, BJP has forged a tie-up with former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda’s JD(S), though the party delivered an impressive performance on its own in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In Maharashtra, the BJP may have lost Shiv Sena after 2019, but it managed to engineer a split in Shiv Sena and NCP and stitch an alliance with their breakaway groups led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar, respectively.

Crony capitalism

The Opposition raked up the issue of crony capitalism like never before to target the BJP on account of his business tycoon Gautam Adani’s proximity to Prime Minister Modi, particularly in the aftermath of the Hindenburg report.

The nature of widespread attention on Adani’s financial dealing evoked global interest since the expose done by the Hindenburg report accused the Adani Group of stock manipulation and more. The meteoric rise of the firm and its network across sectors in India and outside over the last decade provides a telling tale about the ties between the conglomerate and the Modi government.

The Congress led by Rahul Gandhi has always been on the offensive against the BJP regime over this issue and the Wayanad MP attributes his expulsion from the Lok Sabha last year to the fact that he dared to question Modi’s ties with Adani in the Parliament. It would be interesting to see whether the Congress will exploit the issue to target the BJP in the run up to the Lok Sabha elections, particularly after its ‘Chowkidar chor hai’ campaign against PM Modi before 2019 elections drew blank.