No strong wave visible in Kerala as INDIA bloc parties fight each other

When the Left Democratic Front (LDF) announced its candidates as early as February 27, Kerala was in the throes of a financial crisis, with the treasury on the brink of closure and essential welfare programmes, such as pensions for the downtrodden, suffering prolonged disruption. The opposition was all hammer and tongs against the Pinarayi Vijayan-led government, intensifying the prevailing sense of anti-incumbency.

Criticism to Action

Even though they hadn’t finalised candidates, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) was already in election mode, launching their statewide march, ‘Samaragni’ (protest fire) and directing their criticism towards the state government. They levelled a series of accusations, ranging from financial mismanagement to allegations of corruption involving the chief minister’s daughter. Later, they settled on their Kerala-specific election slogan, “We’ve had enough”, highlighting a series of shortcomings of the Left government.

The Kerala government, on the other hand, was bending over backwards to persuade both the opposition and the public that it was the Union government causing financial strain on the state, undermining federal principles. The LDF government had organized a protest in Delhi, in which allies of the INDIA bloc, including the AAP, DMK and the National Conference participated.

Left and India

The primary focus of the initial campaign for the LDF was on the Centre’s financial stranglehold on the state and its disregard for federal principles, exemplified by the overreach of the Governor. The lawsuit filed by the state government in the Supreme Court, along with the interim order obtained in favour of the state, provided them with some respite. Even though the suit was later referred to a larger bench, the litigation allowed the LDF to keep their head over the water in the flood of anti-incumbency.

By the first week of March, when the UDF announced their candidates, the LDF candidates had already completed one or two rounds of campaigning in the constituencies. However, with the UDF candidates entering the fray, the campaign narrative took a significant turn as the Union home ministry notified the rules for the Citizenship Amendment Act.

Protests, minority rights

With the Left-allied Democratic Youth Federation of India (DYFI) spearheading a series of night marches throughout the state, the LDF seized the opportunity to position itself as champions of minority causes. Not to be outdone, the UDF also entered the scene, organising protests against the CAA-NRC, effectively transforming the election battleground into a demonstration of strength against the BJP and the Modi government. The focus of the campaign shifted to who could best defend minority rights, becoming the central theme of the battle.

Here the LDF had an edge due to its proactive stance by spearheading the anti-CAA protests as early as 2019, placing the UDF on the defensive. In a countermove, the UDF spotlighted cases brought against participants in the anti-CAA demonstrations from 2019 to 2020, casting aspersions on the Pinarayi government’s delay in fulfilling its commitment to dismiss frivolous charges. This strategic manoeuvre prompted the government to accelerate the resolution of pending legal matters.

BJP’s initial strategy

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was concentrating its efforts on a handful of constituencies, particularly emphasizing Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur and highlighting their national slogan, “Modi’s guarantees”. The high-octane campaign spearheaded by Modi himself elevated the stature of BJP candidates compared to previous elections.

The BJP’s decision to field their state president K Surendran against Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad was a strategic move. While the party didn’t anticipate Surendran to secure anything beyond a third place, his candidacy against Gandhi allowed the BJP to project a strong presence in Wayanad. This move was aimed at accommodating several national leaders in Wayanad, serving as a strategic optic for the BJP to resonate in the northern states.

Game changer Rahul

Wayanad grabbed headlines when Gandhi faced off against Annie Raja, the national face of the Congress alliance partner, the CPI, which gave the BJP an additional shot in their arm. However, the arrival of Gandhi shifted the momentum in favour of the UDF after initial hiccups. Although a controversy erupted when his filing of nomination was marred by the UDF decision to remove all flags, fearing the BJP’s national campaign might misrepresent the IUML flag as the Pakistani flag, Rahul and Priyanka redirected the focus back to the agenda.

Above all, the mere presence of Rahul Gandhi could be a game-changer in Kerala as he demonstrated in 2019, delivering a record victory not only for himself in Wayanad but also for the UDF, securing 19 out of 20 seats. While he was relatively lenient towards the Left in 2019, this time he did not hesitate to launch harsh attacks on chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan and the LDF.

Manifesto minus CAA

The Congress manifesto, which notably omitted any reference to the CAA, became the trump card wielded by the Left, pushing the UDF onto the backfoot. This pressure eventually compelled the Congress leadership to declare their intention, at least in Kerala, that they will scrap the CAA if they came to power nationally.

Eventually, the LDF also put forward their election slogan, encapsulating a national perspective and political outlook – “Without the Left, Our India won’t remain”. While livelihood concerns and price hikes were discussed as election topics, the predominant theme in the state has been social engineering based on identity politics. Both the Left and the Congress targeted the Muslim minority electorate while the BJP focused on wooing the Christian community.

BJP woos Christians

Even the BJP’s best efforts to court the Christian minority hit the road block as the Manipur violence created wide spread distress among the churches. Nevertheless, even against this backdrop, a section of the community has started to reconsider its stance by considering BJP too as an option, which they had previously viewed as untouchable.

From the onset of the campaign, the UDF has consistently banked on the prevailing anti-incumbency sentiment in Kerala. A multitude of allegations surfaced against Left leaders, ranging from the chief minister’s daughter’s alleged involvement with a dubious company to fraudulent activities in various cooperative societies. Additionally, disruptions in welfare schemes and mishandling of prosecutions, notably in the high-profile Riyaz Moulavi murder case where RSS workers were acquitted, have been highlighted.

Advantage UDF

The task of matching the LDF’s candidate list, which had ample representation from every section except for women, posed a challenge for the UDF, particularly the Congress. Despite having the least number of candidates from backward communities, including Muslims, they somehow evaded questions on this matter and fortunately for them it did not make serious discussions either.

In a conducive political climate and with Rahul Gandhi leading the charge, the UDF is performing well overall in the state.

Left fights back

Despite challenges such as leaders leaving the party and the inability to address crucial subjects like the CAA and NRC in the manifesto, the UDF is still managing to make a strong showing, pushing the Left to the dock accusing it of tacit understanding with the BJP. Rahul Gandhi’s attack on the LDF and chief minister Vijayan did indeed alter the dynamics of the battle in Kerala, with the Congress anticipating a favourable outcome as a result.

On the other hand, starting from a defensive stance, the LDF, led by Vijayan, has made significant progress despite facing financial challenges and allegations against the government. The notification of the CAA provided them a much-needed headway to advance through an aggressive campaign, especially in Muslim-dominated areas.

Sunni divide

The relaxation in borrowing limits obtained through the intervention of the Supreme Court greatly aided in stabilising their position, by disbursing a part of the welfare pension arrears.

The ruling party is anticipating the backing of the disgruntled section of the Sunni Muslim faction, Samastha Kerala Jam Iyyathul Ulema, which traditionally support the IUML and the UDF. Pointing a finger at the Congress for being a “hatchery for future BJP leaders” in the wake of its leaders defecting towards the saffron party, the LDF is positioning it as the champions of minority rights in the wake of the CAA-NRC regime.

Hindu polarisation

Beginning the campaign with multiple visits by Modi and the announcement of the slogan “Modi’s Guarantees”, the BJP initially stayed true to it, but gradually drifted towards its familiar territory of religious polarisation.

The latest focal point of the party’s campaign was the temporary disruption of the Pooram festival in Thrissur, resulting from stringent rules imposed by the police. The cry of “Hindu is in danger” and “Anti-Hindu activities of the communist government” was raised, and the party is working tirelessly to capitalise on it.