Kerala: Why CPI(M) sees Election 2024 as make-or-break for party

A month ago, when CPI(M) leaders were discussing the selection of candidates for the Lok Sabha elections, a senior leader was asked about potential nominees from the Ponnani constituency.

The party had a couple of names under consideration but had not yet zeroed in on any one. Asked about a possible candidate, the leader stated: “Whoever the candidate may be – a party member, sympathiser, fellow traveller or an independent – one thing is certain: he will contest under the symbol of sickle, hammer and star.”

The leader’s tone did not convey confidence but rather desperation to ensure as many party members as possible represent Kerala, the only state where the CPI(M) has both a presence and enough support to win a Lok Sabha seat on its own.

Party symbol

Ultimately, the party settled on dissident IUML leader KS Hamza, who had been expelled from his party months earlier. He was projected as the official candidate of the CPI(M), with the party allotting him the hammer, sickle and star symbol.

As the CPI(M) leader quoted earlier told The Federal, the party has fielded all its 15 candidates with the party symbol, an obvious effort to amass the maximum number of votes and increase the party's vote share.

Every branch of the party and allied organisations has been told to poll the maximum number of votes and to leave no stone unturned even if the candidate does not look capable of winning.

Anti-Left moves?

The CPI(M) has also asked its cadres to ensure that no vote goes unpolled, considering this could be one of the most crucial elections in the party’s history.

Some party leaders are not averse to admitting openly that they are in real danger of losing their national party status.

“There are attempts to destroy the Left movement in the country," AK Balan, a CPI(M) Central Committee member and a former state minister, told a conference of the Kerala State Financial Enterprises (KSFE) Officers Union in Kozhikode.

"In this election, if we fail to garner a stipulated percentage of votes or number of MPs, our party’s national status will be changed and we will become an ‘independent party’. Then we’ll have to campaign for our senior leaders using independent symbols like ‘rat trap’ or ‘anteater’. We cannot lose our identity,” said Balan. 

National parties

A political party attains national recognition if it fulfills any of the three conditions specified in the Election Symbols (Reservation and Allotment) Order of 1968.

It must secure a minimum of six per cent of the votes cast in four or more states during Lok Sabha or Assembly elections alongside maintaining at least four Lok Sabha members.

Alternatively, it should hold no less than two per cent of the Lok Sabha seats and field candidates from at least three states. Additionally, it must be acknowledged as a state party in at least four states.

Currently, only six parties – AAP, BJP, BSP, CPI(M), Congress and NPP – hold national party status. The Trinamool Congress, CPI and NCP lost the status in 2023, the year AAP gained it.

CPI(M)'s prospects

Currently, the CPI(M) holds only three seats in the Lok Sabha – one from Kerala and two from Tamil Nadu. It holds on to the national tag as it is recognised as a state party in Kerala, West Bengal, Tripura and Tamil Nadu.

But the party maintains a presence in seven state assemblies, with Kerala having the highest number of seats at 62. It has 11 MLAs in Tripura, two each in Tamil Nadu and Bihar, and one each in Odisha, Maharashtra and Assam.

With the prospects of maintaining the minimum vote share to hang on to the state status in other states hanging on a balance, winning as many seats as possible from Kerala has become a priority.

Rise and fall

The Left parties, as a bloc too, are represented by just five members in the current Lok Sabha – three from the CPI(M) and two from the CPI. It is the Left’s lowest point in nearly six decades.

Between 1990 and 2009, the Left maintained a consistent presence in India's national electoral landscape. It reached a significant position when a United Front government was formed in 1996, with CPI(M) leader and then West Bengal chief minister Jyoti Basu coming close to becoming the prime minister.

In 2004, the Left parties reached their pinnacle, with the CPI(M) securing 43 Lok Sabha seats, the CPI 10 and the Forward Bloc and the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) each sending three MPs.

However, from 2009 to 2019, they had a notable decline. They suffered shock assembly defeats in West Bengal to the Trinamool Congress in 2011 and in Tripura to the BJP in 2018.

Trying hard

The CPI(M) has announced candidates for over 40 Lok Sabha seats but the seats where they are hopeful include only two from Tamil Nadu, one from Rajasthan and those from Kerala. This underscores that Kerala is the party’s only genuine hope, and the leaders are exerting considerable effort to ensure success in the state.

However, some CPI(M) members believe that Balan's open admission of the precarious situation the party is facing may not benefit its electoral prospects.

“It’s a fact that we did really bad in the last (Lok Sabha) elections. But our national party status isn't at risk right now. So, Comrade Balan's statement can not only fail to benefit us but aid our opponents,” said a party leader who did not want to be named.

The CPI(M), India’s dominant Left party, was formed in 1964 following a split in the older Communist Party of India (CPI). Until some years back, the CPI(M) ruled three states (West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura) and was at the heart of Centre-Left unity efforts.