Kerala: 5 key LS constituencies to watch out for; it's not just a bi-polar contest anymore

According to political pundits, after thorough analysis and groundwork, BJP has narrowed its focus to a few constituencies where it believes it has the best chances of winning. And opening its long-wanted account in this southern state, fiercely resisting the saffron surge.

These constituencies are Thiruvananthapuram, contested by Rajeev Chandrasekhar; Attingal, where V Muraleedharan is the candidate; and Thrissur, represented by Suresh Gopi. However, there are a few other constituencies too that are witnessing closely contested races, with the BJP candidate in the fray.

The Wayanad constituency in Kerala too commands attention due to the presence of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and Thiruvananthapuram for the high-pitched battle between Congress' Shashi Tharoor and Union minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar.

Here then are 5 key constituencies in Kerala in this LS polls:

Thiruvananathapuram: Celebrity battle

This constituency is the cynosure of all eyes in Kerala as Shashi Tharoor, the incumbent MP and Congress stalwart, is facing his biggest challenges ever. He is pitted against the high-profile Union minister BJP’s Rajeev Chandrasekhar and the former MP and veteran leader Pannian Raveendran, a strong candidate representing the Left.

Of course, Tharoor has been sitting pretty in this capital constituency of the state since 2009 when he entered politics after returning from serving in a top post in the United Nations. In 2009, he defeated CPI’s R Ramachandran Nair, and then in 2014, O Rajagopal of the BJP gave him a tough fight, pushing back the Left-backed independent candidate, Dr Bennet Abraham, to the third position.

In 2019, Kummanam Rajasekharan was the BJP candidate, and he too maintained the second position.

With the resentment of the minority community after his complicated stance on the Gaza attack by Israel, Tharoor is fighting hard to retain his MP seat.

It is not just former technocrat minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar, who is pulling out all the stops to ensure a win for the saffron party, Pannian Raveendran, too enjoys significant popularity among the general population. But Tharoor, claims that his track record of 15 years representing the constituency speaks for itself. In his interviews, the articulate Congress leader told the media, “It's not as if I've got anything to be ashamed of in my track record. I've been consistently available and attended to all the major issues." According to him, it's always been a three-cornered fight in this constituency because he took the seat from the LDF.

Chandrasekhar, who got into a controversy over paying 'low' taxes mentioned in his affidavit, is pushing the narrative that the Modi government can change the trajectory of Thiruvananthapuram and transform it "from nothing" to a place where technology, tourism, electronics, manufacturing, research and science flourishes. Meanwhile, Pannian dismisses the BJP as “irrelevant” and said the main contest is between LDF and UDF.

Thrissur: Closely watched

Thrissur constituency is all set to witness a triangular contest which will see the winner romping home to a close finish.

People sat up and took notice of this constituency when BJP nominated actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi as its candidate in 2019. Gopi made a significant impact, securing 28.19 per cent of the votes, marking a steep increase of 17 per cent from their 2014 tally.

In the 2021 assembly elections, contesting from the heart of the city, Gopi garnered 40,457 votes, constituting 31.30 per cent vote share, despite finishing third behind the LDF and UDF candidates. With his active involvement in local affairs, he anticipates causing a big upset this time around.

Congress was compelled to replace its incumbent MP, T N Prathapan, with former KPCC president K Muralidharan, following his sister Padmaja Venugopal's defection to the BJP.

Meanwhile, the LDF also presents a formidable contender in former agriculture minister in the previous LDF government, V S Sunilkumar, who served as the MLA of Thrissur from 2016 to 2021. He has maintained an unblemished electoral record thus far.

This impressive line-up of candidates alone has elevated Thrissur to the status of one of the most closely contested constituencies in the state.

Congress-led UDF and CPM-led LDF have interchangeably won this constituency multiple times in the past over seven decades. But the BJP is banking on Gopi’s charisma to give BJP its longed-for seat in Kerala.

All the candidates are trying to woo the dominant Catholic community in Thrissur which accounts for 35 per cent of the region’s population. About 16 per cent of the voters are Muslims.

What's interesting is that the Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency has a reputation of causing electoral upsets. The defeat of K Karunakaran, the veteran Congress leader, in 1996 by a thin margin of less than 2,000 votes in his pocket-borough shocked political circles at the time.

Pathanamthitta: Close fight

The spotlight falls on the Pathanamthitta constituency for two compelling reasons: the presence of Dr Thomas Isaac, former finance minister and CPI(M) central committee member, and Anil K Antony, son of a former defence minister and Kerala Chief Minister, who switched allegiance from Congress to BJP last year, in a major upset.

This constituency symbolises central Travancore's essence, with a predominantly Christian voter base and a notable NRI population. Historically, a Congress-led UDF stronghold, it has consistently elected Anto Antony as its MP. It has been sending Congress candidates to the Lok Sabha since its establishment in 2009. LDF's resurgence in 2021 further highlights the evolving political dynamics of the constituency.

The Sabarimala women's entry issue too reshaped its political landscape injecting a new uncertainty. 

What's pertinent is that despite Anto Antony's 2019 victory, both LDF and UDF have experienced significant vote loss, while BJP has steadily made notable gains.

The recent realignments, such as Kerala Congress (M) joining the LDF and former UDF chief whip P C George's Janapaksham party merging with the BJP, have fundamentally altered the constituency's dynamics. Christian votes often hold the pivotal role, making it imperative to watch how these shifting allegiances will influence the upcoming election.

Political observers say Anto Antony has been campaigning well, but Thomas Issac is seen as a close contender. The CPI(M), whose campaign machinery is in full swing, could narrow the gap with the Congress at any time. And although the BJP has unleashed a solid campaign in the constituency, Anil Anthony seems to be limping along in third place.

 Vadakara: No-holds barred virtual battle 

Vadakara is one of the fiercely contested constituencies in the state, as the political rivalry between the LDF and the UDF is on full display here. The BJP, as it turned out, plays a mere spectator’s role.

The CPI(M)'s most valued candidate, the former health minister of the state, K K Shailaja, who was celebrated as a rock star for her handling of the coronavirus pandemic by the global media, is taking on the young and vibrant face of the Congress, Shafi Parambil. Popularly referred to as the “pride of Kerala” by her supporters and Left workers, Shailaja is the central focus of the CPI(M)’s campaign in north Kerala’s Vadakara constituency.

The contest will go right down to the wire it seems, as it looks like anyone’s game here. There are allegations and counter-allegations between both sides on various issues, often veering into undesirable territory, including even slut-shaming the 67-year-old K K Shailaja teacher.

Vadakara, historically a stronghold for the LDF, was synonymous with left-wing politics, consistently electing socialist candidates until the late 1980s. However, the 2009 Lok Sabha elections marked a significant shift when T P Chandrasekharan, a prominent leader, rebelled against the CPI(M), forming the Revolutionary Marxist Party (RMP).

This rebellion led to the defeat of the CPI(M) incumbent MP and ultimately culminated in Chandrasekharan's tragic murder in 2012. Subsequently, the RMP allied with the Congress, resulting in K K Rema's victory under the UDF banner, despite being the only non-LDF MLA across the constituency's seven segments.

Several poll pundits had earlier viewed Vadakara as a ‘secure seat’ for the LDF. But now after fierce campaigning by Parambil, this election has truly become unpredictable. Both candidates have launched extensive social media campaigns, releasing numerous reels and posts to appeal to young voters making Vadakara the most discussed constituency in the state. Meanwhile, the BJP candidate C R Praful Krishna, is nowhere to be seen.

The controversy over a ‘morphed video’ of Shailaja, however, did not go in her favour in the end. Even as Parambil was being castigated for going too far in his campaign tactics disrespecting women, Shailaja clarified during a press conference that she never mentioned a ‘morphed video’. This has gone against her as Parambil has sent Shailaja a legal notice for tarnishing his image.

Wayanad: No major breakthrough for NDA

The outcome of the Wayanad election may not offer any suspense, but the contest between Rahul Gandhi and another national leader, Annie Raja of the INDIA bloc, with BJP state chief K Surendran also in the fray, makes this constituency one of the most keenly watched ones in this Lok Sabha elections.

Rahul's presence in Kerala has faced severe scrutiny in previous elections, and this time, despite having a pre-poll understanding with the Left parties under the INDIA umbrella, it has attracted even more criticism.

Towards the end of the campaign, Rahul has adopted an uncharacteristically aggressive stance towards the Left parties. 

In the 2019 elections, Rahul won Wayanad with a record 65 per cent of the vote, securing 7,06,367 votes, while CPI's P P Suneer received only 25 per cent with 2,74,597 votes, marking an all-time low for the party in the constituency.

The NDA ally BDJS-nominated Thushar Vellappally garnered only 78,816 votes. In the previous elections, Rahul's entry into the contest was in the last minute, catching the Opposition off guard. Neither the UDF nor the BJP could devise any effective strategies to counter his candidacy.

However, this time around, with the Left parties making efforts to dissuade him from contesting in Kerala, the CPI made significant efforts to field a national figure in Annie Raja as an alternative candidate.

Rahul's remarkable level of support in Kerala, unmatched by any previous candidate, is unmatched. However, the entry of Surendran into the fray, along with the potential for high-profile campaigning by BJP national leaders and increased funding, has slightly altered the landscape here.

The Congress MP, however, is popular among the local Muslims. Three out of the seven Assembly seats in Wayanad constituency are in Muslim-dominated Malappuram district.

While there is a realistic possibility of the NDA increasing their vote share in Wayanad, a major breakthrough beyond that seems unlikely.

Other significant constituencies

Among other significant seats from Kerala are Alathur, where state minister and CPI(M) leader K Radhakrishnan is taking on the incumbent Congress MP, Ramya Haridas, and Attingal, where union minister V Muraleedharan is also contesting against sitting MP Congress’ Adoor Prakash and CPI(M)’s sitting MLA V. Joy.