Election 2024: Assam is no cakewalk for BJP despite Himanta's bravado

Even before the dates were announced for the Lok Sabha elections, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma predicted the results — at least 12 seats for the BJP out of the 14 in the state.

Sarma is not alone. His Cabinet colleagues, MLAs, and other state BJP leaders have repeated those lines on several occasions, evidently as part of an organised effort to establish it as an election narrative.

Projecting a triumphant situation for the ruling party definitely creates an impression on voters’ minds. But, despite the narrative, there are anti-incumbency and other factors that can prove to be decisive for any election outcome.

And, like everywhere else, some of Assam’s parliamentary constituencies are also set to witness riveting contests between the ruling party and the Opposition, despite the evident lack of order in the latter.

Assam will vote in the first three phases: April 19, April 26, and May 7.

The equations in Jorhat

In upper Assam, Dibrugarh and Jorhat constituencies are likely to witness interesting fights. In Jorhat, Kaliabor MP and deputy leader of Congress in the Lok Sabha, Gaurav Gogoi, is the Opposition candidate, while BJP’s Topon Gogoi is fighting for a second term. Kaliabor, from where Gaurav won two consecutive terms, is now non-existent after delimitation.

After delimitation, the Majuli Assembly segment (Majuli district) has now come within Jorhat constituency, giving it a new geography. In all, Jorhat has 10 Assembly segments across the districts of Jorhat, Sibasagar, and Charaideo. Some of those segments were also reformed during delimitation.

Ahoms constitute the majority of voters in Jorhat, followed by the tea tribes, Scheduled Castes, Assamese caste Hindus, minorities (Muslims), and other tribal communities, including the Misings and Deuris. Of all these, Ahom votes are likely to play a major role and it would be interesting to see how they get mobilised as both of the contenders belong to this community.

A divided electorate

Subrat, an activist based in Jorhat district, agreed that Ahom voters will play an important role in the polls. “The Ahom votes are not yet consolidated. On the other hand, the tea tribes are still majorly in the BJP’s favour. For example, the Titabor tea belt has 50 per cent tea tribe voters, and the BJP seems to have an advantage over the Congress,” he told The Federal.

However, it is worth noting that the Titabor Assembly seat has been with the Congress since 2001. It was held by Gaurav’s father and former Assam Chief Minister, the late Tarun Gogoi, for four consecutive terms, from 2001 to his death in 2020. In 2021, Bhaskar Jyoti Baruah retained the seat for the Congress.

“Right after the declaration of Gaurav’s candidature, the excitement among some sections, mainly the Ahoms and a section of the caste Hindu Assamese, was palpable,” said Subrat.

“The other tribes, mainly the Misings of Majuli, mostly support the BJP. Majuli houses most of the Misings, and its inclusion in Jorhat may change the dynamics this time. The SCs are also divided, but the Muslims will back Gaurav,” he added.

Beyond community identity

Jorhat constituency has an interesting history. In 2019, Topon Gogoi defeated his nearest contender, Sushanta Borgohain of the Congress, by almost a lakh votes. Both belonged to the Ahom community. And in 2014, Kamakhya Prasad Tasa of the BJP defeated six-term Congress MP Bijoy Krishna Handique by the same margin. Handique had been the Jorhat MP since 1991.

Tasa belongs to the tea tribe community and has been a tall BJP figure in his community. He is contesting from Kaziranga this time.

Therefore, despite its importance, community identity may not be the sole determinant of electoral outcomes in this belt.

Gaurav as a leader

Gaurav’s image as a leader in Parliament, raising the issues of Assam and the North East boldly and consistently, has sharpened in recent times, especially during his debates on Manipur and Assam and the no-confidence motion he brought in the Lok Sabha. Moreover, Gaurav’s active presence in Assam and his continuous questioning of the Himanta Sarma government have also gained traction.

On the other hand, Topon Gogoi has been a rather silent MP. He has not been very active in Assam politics or in Parliament.

The campaign poster below, published by Raijor Dal, produces a report card of Gaurav and Topon in Parliament in the past five years. It suggests that Gaurav has raised 245 questions, while Topon has only nine in his account.

Values vs freebies

“This time, it is the politics of values represented by Gaurav versus BJP’s enticement. Gaurav is a symbol of change in Jorhat,” said Arun Gogoi, a political observer based in Sonari, Charaideo district. “The BJP depends on its freebie schemes, but people are suffering from unemployment and price hikes,” he observed.

“The Christian tea tribes (such as the Mundas or the Santhals) will support the Congress. Overall, the BJP’s vote share in the tea gardens will decrease. On the other hand, the Ahom and Muslim votes will be consolidated in favour of Gaurav. Even at Sonari, Topon’s native place, Gaurav seems to have an edge,” Arun Gogoi added.

Of the 10 Assembly segments under Jorhat constituency, Congress has two while Sibsagar’s Independent MLA Akhil Gogoi supports the INDIA bloc. The BJP has five seats, while its ally, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) has two. However, two of those seats, Mariani and Thowra (included in Demow constituency after delimitation) were originally won by the Congress in 2021; the MLAs defected to the BJP and won the seats again in the by-election.

Who backs whom

Barring his party, Gaurav has the support of the Raijor Dal, with its president Akhil Gogoi, the Sibsagar MLA, actively engaged in his campaigns.

On the other hand, Himanta Sarma is busy campaigning for Topon Gogoi. The CM was even present during his nomination. Himanta has been concentrating strongly on Majuli, the stronghold of the Vaishnav monasteries (satras) where the BJP has an overwhelming presence.

The BJP has also been popular among the Misings. “However, the Christian Misings and the upwardly mobile youths of the community are more attracted towards Gaurav,” said a local activist from Majuli.

Gaurav clearly has the support of the people, if public meetings and roadshows are to go by. His image of a bold and vocal leader in Lok Sabha and his no-nonsense persona may have pulled people to his meetings. But to translate it into votes, a strong organisational network is necessary. This is where the Congress and the Opposition in general lag behind the BJP.

“There is a positive attitude in favour of Gaurav Gogoi, especially among the youth. But the Congress seems not to have overcome its organisational weaknesses,” Subrat remarked.

Moreover, in the past one-and-a-half months, several of its veteran leaders have defected. Rana Goswami, the working president of Assam Congress, joined the BJP, while Congress MLA from Karimganj, Kamalakhya Dey Purkayastha, declared that he would extend support to the BJP government from outside as well as inside the Assembly.

Another veteran Congress leader and MLA, Bharat Narah, resigned just a week back, apparently because the party refused to give a poll ticket to his wife, Rani Narah. Many others in the state Congress, including district presidents, have joined the BJP very recently. Such defections and inertness of some leaders can put voters in a quandary even when a candidate is strong.

Therefore, how far Gaurav’s strong record and persona get translated to votes is anyone’s guess. But it is very unlikely that Topon Gogoi will have the cakewalk that Himanta has predicted.

The fight in Dibrugarh is between Central Cabinet minister and former chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal of the BJP and Lurinjyoti Gogoi of the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP). The Opposition has failed to provide a joint candidate here, as Manoj Dhanowar of the AAP is also in the fray.

Since 1952, Congress had an impeccable record in Dibrugarh till 2004, retaining the seat for all those years. The dent came in 2004, when Sonowal, then in AGP, won the seat. In 2009, Congress won it back, but in 2014, Rameswar Teli reclaimed Dibrugarh for the saffron party. Importantly, Teli has been denied a ticket this time, which may irk a section of the tea garden voters, who are significant in number here.

The Dibrugarh situation is not significantly different from Jorhat’s. Since the anti-CAA movement in the state, which appeals to a section of the youth, Lurin has been seen as an uncompromising, firebrand youth leader representing the progressive Assamese identity. But for all practical purposes, he still has to depend majorly on the Congress.

Moreover, Lurin is a newcomer to parliamentary politics while Sonowal is a seasoned politician. In the 2021 Assembly election, Lurin lost from both Naharkatiya and Duliajan constituencies, which come under the Dibrugarh Lok Sabha constituency.

What local observers believe

Speaking to The Federal, Sarat Neog, a senior journalist based in Dibrugarh, gave some hints about the possibilities: “The Ahoms are not totally in favour of the BJP, while Teli’s removal has brewed anger among the tea tribes. A section of these voters will back Dhanowar, as he belongs to the tea tribes. These votes would otherwise have gone to the BJP. This may help end up helping Lurin.”

Neog further suggested that the anti-CAA sentiment may play a role. “Even though there is no visible movement against CAA implementation, there are silent voters who vehemently oppose it. It may act as an undercurrent in the polls. However, Sonowal still has the edge,” he offered.

However, Bulon Saikia, another senior journalist based in Naharkatiya, differed with Neog. “Dhanowar is not a factor; neither is Teli’s removal. Sonowal is leading, but his victory will not be so easy this time,” Saikia summed up.

There are other sections of the electorate to consider as well: The non-Assamese speaking Hindu voters, Muslims, and other tribes, including Sonowal’s own Sonowal Kachari, the Moran, and the Motok. The BJP has an edge in tribal politics.

But, as an Ahom, Lurin may benefit from the largest community in Dibrugarh. In a recent development, Sonowal Kachari Ganamancha, a forum of the Sonowal Kacharis, has issued an appeal to support him.

Spanning the districts of Dibrugarh and Tinsukia, Dibrugarh constituency currently has 10 Assembly segments, which was nine before delimitation. All of these were won by the BJP in 2021.

However, for the Lok Sabha polls, an anti-incumbency wave was working against Teli, and Sonowal was brought in for the seat precisely because of that, a local youth activist based in Moranhat told The Federal. Otherwise, Lurin would have enjoyed a clear edge over Teli.