Despite Sandeshkhali, TMC enjoys edge in badly-divided West Bengal

The high-stakes Bengal saw it all in 70-plus days of whirlwind and intense electioneering. From fast-changing weather with the heat wave giving way to cyclonic storms to changing political narratives and hate speeches – all to impress the state’s 7.6 crore voters.

Up for grab are Bengal’s 42 seats, the third highest after Uttar Pradesh (80) and Maharashtra (48). Like the other two states, Bengal sees itself impacting the overall electoral result significantly. 

Heavy odds

The prolonged campaign apart, this election will stand out for being the battle of odds. All the parties went to the hustings with the odds heavily stacked against them.

The ruling TMC battled charges of corruption with many of its top leaders in jails in cases related to cattle smuggling and cash for jobs as well as ration scams. If these were not enough, the party was hit by the Sandeshkhali fiasco in the run-up to the election.

TMC leaders in the sleepy island were accused by villagers of grabbing farm land to convert them into fisheries. Worse, there were allegations of sexual harassment of women against the TMC functionaries in Sandeshkhali, striking at the core of the party’s Maa-Mati-Manush doctrine espousing women empowerment, protection of land and overall welfare of people.

The corruption and Sandeshkhali issues continued to haunt the TMC throughout the campaign. So much so that Mamata was jeered with chor chor ('thief, thief') slogans during campaigning in Jalpaiguri, a new low in her political career.

TMC jittery

The opposition expectedly built their narratives around corruption and Sandeshkhali, almost turning the elections into a referendum against Mamata Banerjee’s TMC government in power since 2011.

On the ground, the twin issues found some resonance among the voters, particularly in urban areas, apparently leaving the TMC edgy. The vote count across the country is due on June 4.

The TMC tried to turn the tables on the BJP by questioning the performance of the Narendra Modi government, which the saffron party skirted by propping polarising narratives like “TMC is giving way rights of the OBCs to Muslims,” as claimed by Prime Minister Modi

Mamata takes on Modi

“Let me tell you this is not a state election to be fought on the state government’s performances. We will give details of what we have done during the Assembly elections. This is Modi babu’s election. Let him first give the accounts of what he did in the last 10 years," charged Mamata.

“He had promised to deposit Rs 15 lakh in every bank account. Has he done that? What about his guarantee of creating 2 crore jobs every year? What about rising prices?” she reiterated in her election rallies.

The BJP’s alleged poor track record of keeping promises and duplicity in its avowed fight against corruption were the TMC’s counter narrative against it.

Mamata repeatedly took pot shots at the BJP taunting it with “washing-machine-BJP” jibes to discredit the Modi government’s so-called anti-corruption drive. The TMC hopes the gambit will offset the impact of graft charges against its government and senior leaders.

TMC versus BJP

In a state where jobs are rare and outmigration is high, unemployment could have been a decisive election issue. But it got diluted because the BJP’s attempt to stick blame on the TMC for the problem sounded hollow since the overall unemployment rate in India hit an all-time high during the Modi regime.

The TMC was quick to show the mirror to the BJP every time it raised the issue of joblessness in Bengal.

With the two main contenders weighing down under the weight of their own baggage, no issue could make an overriding impact this time.

In the absence of real issues, even Modi’s bizarre claim of being godsent dominated the election discourse.

“Both the BJP government at the Centre and the TMC government in the state do not have much to say about their respective performances other than pointing fingers at each other,” said CPI (M) leader Mohammed Salim.

Left-Congress

The Left and the Congress being out of power for long got into the race without any baggage. The introduction of fresh and young faces in the fray by the Left did get some positive traction.

The combine, however, was hamstrung by poor organisational presence. The vote base of the Left Front-Congress alliance is most likely to increase this time but the spike may not be enough for the alliance to win many seats. This is despite the likelihood of both the BJP and the TMC losing some votes to the Left-Congress alliance.

Essentially, the fight for the Bengal Lok Sabha seats is primarily between the TMC and the BJP but the former is still the party to beat from all accounts, Sandeshkhali or not.