Lok Sabha polls: 5 reasons why BJP leaders fear dismal numbers in Karnataka

With just weeks to go for June 4, when the Lok Sabha results will be known, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has concluded that the number of seats it is likely to win in Karnataka will be no match for the stupendous victory it scored in 2019.

According to sources, BJP leaders admitted at a review meeting that they expect bad news for more reasons than one, including a contentious alliance forged with the Janata Dal (Secular).

Party sources told The Federal  that the other factors in play were an aggressive campaign by the Congress, the Siddaramaiah government's social welfare schemes in Karnataka, a sex scandal involving JD(S) leader Prajwal Revanna, and ugly infighting within the BJP.

BJP losses

If the state BJP’s reading comes true, it might possibly dent Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambition of sailing back to power for a hat-trick. The BJP won a record 25 of Karnataka’s 28 Lok Sabha seats five years ago, making a rich contribution to the party’s overall national tally of 300-plus.

Inputs received by BJP leaders say the party may lose around 12 seats from the 25 it contested this time. Eight other seats will be touch-and-go, it is feared. 

An internal survey ahead of the elections had also predicted victories only in 10-12 seats. But at that time the BJP did not face some of the destabilising developments which happened later.

Poor showing expected

"The numbers will definitely be less compared to the previous Lok Sabha," a leader who did not want to be named told The Federal.

The regions where electoral setbacks are expected include coastal Karnataka, Malnad, Old Mysuru region, Middle Karnataka and North Karnataka.

In the coastal region, the BJP faced a significant challenge from the Billava community, traditionally loyal supporters. Local BJP leaders including Umanath Kotyan openly advocated supporting Billava leaders regardless of party affiliation. This has threatened the BJP's electoral stronghold.

In North Kanara, dissension by BJP leader Anant Kumar Hegde is expected to worsen the situation.

Leadership crises

In the Malnad region, leadership crises sparked clashes among BJP leaders. Former state unit president KS Eshwarappa rebelled against BJP candidate BY Raghavendra, challenging the faction led by the latter’s father and former Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa. Eshwarappa's camp will be overjoyed if Raghavendra loses to the Congress.

Supporters of CT Ravi, a former BJP general secretary, have complained about lack of aggression in campaigning

In Middle Karnataka, Lingayat voters have splintered. At the same time, Kuruba and Dalit votes have swung towards the Congress. The denial of ticket to former Union minister A Narayana Swamy has upset Dalits, a BJP leader said.

BJP’s bungling

In North Karnataka, the Congress maintains its supremacy, particularly among the Lingayat community, which shifted allegiance to it in the 2023 Assembly elections. Lingayat seer Dingaleshwara Swamiji's criticism of the 'Brahmin' BJP candidate in Dharwad undermined the BJP's appeal.

The denial of ticket to former chief minister Jagadish Shettar in Dharwad could negatively impact BJP candidate Pralhad Joshi. Also, Congress president Mallikarjuna Kharge's influence in consolidating Dalit and Muslim votes posed a serious challenge to the BJP.

In Old Mysuru, the growing Vokkaliga leadership provided by Congress leader and deputy chief minister DK Shivakumar and the AHINDA base of chief minister Siddaramaiah worry the BJP.

Serious infighting

BJP leaders admit that the party is now divided between BS Yediyurappa and a camp stridently opposed to him. The importance given to BSY and his son in party affairs has upset many leaders. During the Lok Sabha elections, there was no coordination between the two factions.

In contrast, Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar unleashed a coordinated and aggressive Congress campaign harping on the BJP MPs' perceived neglect of Karnataka despite holding 25 of the 28 seats in parliament. The two leaders targeted the Modi government's bias in fund allocation and tax devolution while highlighting the state’s social welfare schemes.

Sex scandal

The stinking sex scandal involving JD(S) leader Prajwal Revanna which exploded after the first round of voting in Karnataka took the wind out of the BJP’s sail.

BJP leaders frankly admit that the scandal impacted their party all across Karnataka, especially with women voters. “This will definitely hit the BJP vote share,” one leader confessed.

Welfare schemes

The Karnataka government’s social welfare schemes, especially the free bus ride for women and Rs 2,000 a month to women head of the family, created a huge impact on rural masses. Also, provision of free rice (10kg) and Rs 1,500 and Rs 3,000 for unemployed diploma and degree holders respectively caused a massive impact. The free power (up to 200 units) has also attracted the rural base.

Naturally, there were plenty of takers for the fresh Congress guarantee schemes promised for the Lok Sabha elections. All this together is expected to seriously hit the BJP, its leaders say.