Bihar: Nitish’s ‘cold vibes’ and waning popularity leave NDA worried

Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has crossed the first hurdle in Bihar by completing the seat-sharing arrangement between different partners but the transfer of votes and joint campaigning by leaders continue to pose challenges for the ruling coalition.

Taking the first step to broker peace between some of the crucial members of the NDA in Bihar, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has taken upon itself to play the role of peacemaker in the NDA.

Senior leaders worried

NDA leaders are worried about the transfer of votes between different partners because of the tension between Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Chirag Paswan, chief of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas).

Adding to the challenge for the BJP leadership are former union minister Upendra Kushwaha and former Bihar chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, who, too, have not had cordial relations with the Bihar chief minister in the last few years. Senior leaders of the BJP have decided to step in now before it gets too late and affects the poll performance of the BJP-NDA in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

To ensure that the BJP and NDA partners work together and there is no friction between all six NDA partners in Bihar before the polls and also during voting, the BJP leadership organised a meeting of all the NDA partners in Bihar in which Nitish and Chirag met for the first time after the 2020 Assembly elections in Bihar.

“The NDA partners, along with leaders of the BJP, have met in Bihar so that all the alliance partners work together and ensure the BJP and NDA win all 40 seats in Bihar. The meeting between NDA partners is to ensure that the message goes to the cadre and party workers on the ground that they should work together and the transfer of votes happen smoothly in all the constituencies,” AK Bajpai, senior leader of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) told The Federal.

Tussle within NDA

The problem between Nitish and Chirag first came to light during the Assembly elections in Bihar in 2020, when Chirag accused Nitish of conspiring against the BJP leaders and hurting the party's poll prospects in the state elections.

The animosity took an ugly turn in June 2021 when he categorically blamed Nitish’s Janata Dal (United) or JDU for orchestrating a coup within the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). Chirag blamed Nitish and his uncle, Pashupati Kumar Paras, for conspiring against him and creating a split in the party to oust him from the post of party president.

“We have sent a direct message to the party workers and our cadre that we have to work together and we have to ensure that at the time of polling of votes, the transfer of votes happens without any problem. This is the clear message given to party workers. All the parties within NDA have also told their party workers and cadre to do the same. The aim of all the alliance members is the victory of the NDA candidates and also to ensure that PM Modi returns to power for the third consecutive term,” Bajpai added.

Brokering peace between Nitish and Manjhi

The situation is no different between Nitish and Kushwaha, who has been a vocal critic of the Bihar chief minister for a long time. Kushwaha has claimed that he was against the decision of Nitish joining hands with Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar.

It is not only Kushwaha who has been a vocal critic of Nitish, but Manjhi too, who has been accusing him of not looking after the needs of Dalits in the state. Manjhi, like Kushwaha, was earlier in the JDU, but he parted ways after problems with Nitish. Although Kushwaha met Nitish in February this year to end his differences with the JDU, senior leaders of the BJP have tried to broker peace between Nitish and Manjhi too in the last few days.

“It was only for a few years that JDU was with Lalu Yadav’s party otherwise we have always been part of the NDA. The formation of the NDA is against the policies of Lalu Yadav, and the JDU has always been opposed to the RJD. The party workers and cadre know that they have to work together to make sure the NDA wins. The seat distribution has been such that one NDA candidate is up against an RJD or Congress candidate, so it is obvious that all NDA parties must transfer their votes for the victory of the NDA candidate,” KC Tyagi, senior leader of JDU, told The Federal.

What political analysts say

Political analysts believe that while the NDA was the first to finalise its seat-sharing formula, the transfer of votes may not be so easy for the ruling alliance as there is anger against Nitish among several NDA leaders.

“Nitish Kumar could be the Achilles heel of the NDA in Bihar because most of the NDA leaders of Bihar, be it Chirag Paswan, Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha, do not have cordial ties with the Bihar chief minister. The popularity of Nitish Kumar has also come down, and the transfer of votes can prove to be a challenge for the BJP-NDA,” Abhay Kumar Dubey, author and professor at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) told The Federal.