9 takeaways from high voter turnout in Jammu and Kashmir

Tauqeer’s father, 53-year-old AH Khan, whose family traditionally voted for the National Conference (NC) until 1987, has been a staunch supporter of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) since 2009. From 1996 to 2008, the Khan family stayed away from the electoral process for a variety of reasons.

Growing support for Engineer Rashid

“My father told us that this time all of us should cast our votes in favour of Engineer Rashid (who is contesting as an Independent candidate from the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat). All of us will have to press the 'pressure cooker' button, Rashid’s party symbol,” Tauqeer told The Federal.

Khan said that he couldn’t control his emotions on seeing the young Abrar Rashid, breaking down during the emotive election campaign for his incarcerated father, Engineer Rashid. “My eyes got moist on seeing this young lad asking for our vote to ensure freedom for his jailed father. Abrar’s honest narrative moved me. I decided it wasn’t the time to stay indoors; it was time to go out to cast a vote and do my bit to help a young son to see his incarcerated father as a free bird,” Khan told The Federal.

Such stories were common when The Federal spoke to young voters in Beerwah and Budgam in central Kashmir; Pattan and Sopore in north Kashmir’s Baramulla district; and Langate in frontier Kupwara district. Nearly five to six out of 10 first-time voters said that their vote was for Engineer Rashid. Earlier, The Federal reported about the 'Rashid factor' in the Baramulla parliamentary constituency.

Improved voter turnout

On May 25, a voter turnout of nearly 54 per cent was registered when polling took place for the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat. On May 20, the north and central Kashmir’s Baramulla parliamentary constituency recorded an estimated 59 per cent voter turnout. A week before, on May 13, the Srinagar parliamentary segment logged around 38 per cent voter turnout, according to Jammu and Kashmir’s chief election officer, PK Pole.

Although voter turnouts of 38, 54 or even 59 per cent are not unprecedented when compared to those in West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, or Bihar, these are vital polling figures for Kashmir.

In 1989, the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat had recorded a dismal 5.48 per cent voter turnout. While no polls were held in 1991, in 1999, the same constituency recorded a 27 per cent voter turnout. In this backdrop, the voter turnout of about 59 per cent in 2024 is a drastic improvement.

Similarly, the Srinagar Lok Sabha seat recorded polling percentage of 37.99, the highest in many decades. In 2019, it was 15 per cent.

Why polling numbers shot up

The BJP has attributed the high polling percentage in Jammu and Kashmir to the result of the people’s trust in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “endeavours to ensure peace and development in Kashmir” and a “befitting reply to those asking what has changed in Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370.”

Looking beyond the political rhetoric, what made the numbers shoot up is a legitimate question that requires a nuanced understanding of the region’s political landscape and present anxieties.

The Federal travelled across every nook and cranny of Kashmir to know the pulse of the voters. In different parts of Kashmir, several factors were at play. Based on conversations with a cross-section of voters from central to south to north Kashmir regions, here are nine takeaways that explain why Kashmiris chose to vote in large numbers this time around:

1. Anger against abrogation of Articles 370, 35A: A majority of voters told The Federal that it was important for them to express their resentment against the Centre’s decision on August 5, 2019, through their vote. They said they refuse to accept the “unilateral” decision of invalidating Articles 370 and 35 A, and the removal of the region’s semi-autonomy and special status. They said that their vote was evidence of their democratic behaviour.

“Many like me are deeply hurt over what happened on August 5. My vote is my protest against the abrogation of Article 370,” said a government employee in his mid-40s. Fearing reprisal, government employees in Kashmir refuse to air political opinions overtly.

2. Strong desire for local representation: Several voters including women and youth said their vote will enable them to choose their local representative who can listen to them and solve their problems with compassion and empathy. They said that since 2019, almost everyone at the helm of affairs in administration, bureaucracy and police is an “outsider” and a “non-Kashmiri”. From Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha, Divisional Commissioner (Kashmir Division) Vijay Kumar Bidhuri, Director General of Jammu and Kashmir Police RR Swain, and Inspector General of JKP V K Birdi to other top administrators and bureaucrats, hardly anyone is a Kashmiri or a Muslim. “See, the last Assembly election took place in Kashmir 10 years ago (in 2014). The people of Jammu and Kashmir are being directly ruled by New Delhi since the PDP-led coalition government fell apart (in June 2018). There is no local representative we can reach out to with our problems,” said Zarina, a 56-year-old woman from Budgam.

3. Keeping the BJP out: A good number of voters in Palhalan and Sopore in north Kashmir’s Pattan, central Kashmir’s Beerwah and Budgam, south Kashmir’s Anantnag, Bijbehara, Pulwama and Shopian told The Federal that they have voted to defeat the saffron party and its proxies in Kashmir. They said they were determined to teach the BJP and its ‘proxies’ (a dig at the People’s Conference, Apni Party and Democratic Azad Progressive Party led by Sajad Lone, Altaf Bukhari and Ghulam Nabi Azad respectively) a lesson. This particular sentiment among voters was predicted by NC’s chief spokesperson and communication in-charge, Tanvir Sadiq. “Both Sajad Lone and Altaf Bukhari are often called to New Delhi. Now, they have been advised to come together on a single platform after realising the mood on the streets,” Sadiq had told The Federal.

4. Absence of politics since 2014: Many voters were of the view that there have been no Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir since December 2014 which has resulted in a political vacuum. So, in their opinion, the ongoing elections provided them with an opportunity to make themselves heard politically. Veteran political scientist, Professor Noor Baba, said that there were many safeguards provided to the people of Jammu and Kashmir under Article 370. He says the high voter turnout shows that people wanted to make their resentment count and the ongoing elections provided them an opportunity to have their agency to fill the political vacuum.

5. No poll boycott call: Neither the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) nor any armed outfit issued any formal call for an election boycott this time. The Hurriyat amalgam’s top leaders continue to remain imprisoned. Srinagar-based head priest, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, had told a media house that there was no point in issuing a boycott call. Lesser known leaders of the Jama’at-e-Islami (JeI), an influential socio-political and religious organisation that stands proscribed, for now, also expressed their willingness to participate in the forthcoming Assembly elections if the ban placed on JeI was revoked.

6. Unemployment and inflation: Women and elderly men The Federal spoke to said they voted so that their educated children get decent jobs. They also voiced concern over the rising prices of household commodities such as rice, cooking oil, LPG, petrol, and diesel.

Fayyaz Ahmed, a 50-year-old parent, who runs a provisional store, said he hopes his vote will bring job opportunities for his young boy. “My son has turned 20. My vote is for his employment and other young boys and girls. Look at the price hike! How can a single breadwinner manage everything?” he asked.

7. Breaking the cycle of silence: In parts of south Kashmir and north Kashmir, first-time voters spoke about the importance of breaking the cycle of silence. They mostly favoured the political narrative of Waheed Parra of the PDP. They said there has been a total absence of freedom of speech since August 2019 in Kashmir and that it was critical to speak up through democratic means. A voter in south Kashmir said that instead of throwing a stone or chanting an angry slogan, he chose the ballot to make a statement. Voters across the length and breadth of Kashmir were unanimous in saying that they wanted to fight the prevailing atmosphere of fear by expressing their aspirations through vote. They also talked about the importance of land and the preservation of jobs and scholarships.

Young politicians such as Waheed Parra of the PDP and Ruhullah Mehdi have told The Federal that this election was about “fighting fear” and “breaking the cycle of silence”.

8. Ethnic and regional identity: The fear of being swamped by the BJP government was palpable in most parts of Kashmir. For the Gujjars and Paharis in Pir Panjal region, Kashmiris in the valley, Dogras in Jammu, Shia Muslims in Kargil and Buddhists in Leh, their ethnic identity remains very close to their hearts. Many voters said that their vote was meant to preserve their regional and ethnic identities.

9. Engineer Rashid factor: Many first-time voters spoke emotionally about their vote. Had Engineer Rashid not been in the fray, they said, they would have stayed indoors. They argued that maybe their vote could be of any help to get Rashid out of jail. Fayaz, a voter from north Kashmir, said he has voted for the NC in the past but decided to vote for Engineer Rashid now. “If there is a politician who is courageous, on the right path, and speaks up for common people, it is Engineer Rashid. I have moved on from NC,” he told The Federal.