Open to probe but ban call childish: Axis My India boss on exit poll fiasco

Ever since the exit polls for the Lok Sabha elections 2024 went way off the mark, leading to stock market mayhem on the day of results, the Opposition has been baying for the blood of pollsters and demanding thorough investigations. Reacting to the fiasco, one of the pollsters, Axis My India chief Pradeep Gupta, has said he is open to facing all kinds of probe but banning exit polls would be “childish”.

The exit poll effect

All major exit polls gave the BJP a huge majority this year, which led to a bull run at the stock market. But once the actual results showed that the ruling party was clearly falling short of a majority on its own, the markets fell sharply, resulting in huge losses to investors. Gupta’s Axis My India had predicted 361-401 seats for the BJP-led alliance as against the actual tally of 240 seats.

Since then, Opposition parties and several civil society groups have been asking for a probe by capital markets regulator SEBI or a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC). Welcoming a probe, Gupta, the chairman and managing director of Axis My India, said he and other pollsters could do business in a much better way if the government framed specific regulations for them.

In an interaction with PTI editors at the agency’s headquarters in Delhi, Gupta said he has been demanding the formulation of norms and regulations for pollsters for five years. He explained that specific regulations for pollsters will not only help them do business better but also add more credibility to the exit polls.

“Axis My India has no demat account”

Gupta also denied allegations that pollsters worked to manipulate the stock market. “We have no connection with the stock market whatsoever, but I am happy to know about these allegations because our data and system are so foolproof that any probe will give me an opportunity to showcase all of that is used to predict exit polls to the world. In a way, it is an opportunity for us, I support the demand, as it will give us a chance to show our credentials,” he said.

Asked whether he was open to a probe by a JPC or SEBI, the pollster said, “I am open to facing all kinds of investigation.”

“As far as me deriving any benefit from stock market jump is concerned...Axis My India has no demat account. It is a limited company, not listed, and till today, not a single external investment is there in the company. There is no investment by promoters. My personal investment in stocks since April has been merely Rs 35,000. Where have I benefited?” he remarked.

The pollster also responded to allegations of Axis My India conducting exit polls for foreign investors and sharing different results with them. “We have never been approached by any FII (foreign institutional investor), neither we have worked for any foreign investors; we have not conducted any exit poll survey for them, ever,” said Gupta, 55.

“Demand for ban childish”

Terming the demands for banning exit polls as “childish”, Gupta said every citizen and organisation wants to know the election results, and banning exit polls would serve no purpose.

“First, they used to call exit polls unscientific; now, they want exit polls to be banned. These are childish talks. Every citizen and organisation wants to know the election results, and banning exit polls would serve no purpose. Exit polls are not just to tell who is winning and losing, it also helps political parties analyse the result.

He also said 70 per cent of Axis My India’s clients are corporate clients, including bigwigs like Bill Melinda Gates foundation and denied any conflict of interest with exit polls. “As far as we are concerned, I mentioned 70 per cent of my clients are corporate clients. Even if they are banned, it won’t impact our business. I am with the law, whatever is decided,” he added.

“We need regulations”

Questioned about whether the dent in image caused by 2024 poll results has also impacted his corporate clients, Gupta said, “They give us business for the work we do for them and not on the basis of how rightly we predict election results.”

“For the past five years, I have been running from pillar to post seeking some regulations. When our people go on ground, they are seen with a suspicious mindset. We have to convince [people] that we are not salespersons, we aren’t frauds, and we are not sent by a political party. We are often asked, who gave you permission? And we say, ‘please tell us where we need to take permission’,” he said.

“We wrote to the home ministry; we were guided to the law ministry that there is no law; so first we need a law. From there, we were referred to the information and broadcasting ministry that you get yourself registered there and set up a cell. We were told that you will publish a survey but who will monitor who is right and wrong? ... Nothing has moved, but I strongly believe we need regulations,” he said.

Sound track record

Axis My India has been conducting exit polls since 2013 after Gupta returned from the Harvard Business School and claims a track record of predicting 61 out of 65 elections correctly.

Asked why Axis My India does not disclose that some political parties are also its clients, Gupta said, “In the 2019 Haryana Assembly elections, BJP was one of our clients and in the exit polls we predicted a hung assembly, which was bang on.”

“The prediction is even part of a Harvard Business School case study and includes a disclosure. Wherever the client agrees, we make a disclosure; there is nothing to hide,” Gupta asserted.

(With agency inputs)