What BJP's victory tells about fate of INDIA bloc, caste census and 2024 polls

Although there are still five months left for the general elections, the victories in three states have reaffirmed that in a direct contest between the BJP and Congress, the ruling party enjoys a considerable upper hand, at least in the states of northern India.

The election victories also emphasise that the credibility and popularity of PM Modi remain unflinching with the voters, and the Opposition does not have an answer to the well-oiled election machinery of the BJP.

In his victory speech after the election results, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, “The hat-trick in the election victory is a guarantee for a hat-trick in the Lok Sabha polls. The election results will resonate with the entire world and reaffirm India’s growth story. The vote is against corruption, dynasty politics, and the politics of appeasement. The election results in the three states show that people are now voting for a stable government that works for the development of the people after the election results.

Big boost for BJP

The assembly election victory not only gives a boost for the BJP before the Lok Sabha polls, but it also indicates that in a direct electoral contest with Congress, the Opposition party does not have an answer to counter the BJP. Senior BJP members also believe that the momentum of the election victory will further help the BJP nationally after the inauguration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya in January next year.

“If we look at the election victory, it is because of the popularity of the Prime Minister. I do not believe in the idea of a quarter final match with the Opposition or a semi-final match before the Lok Sabha polls. But it is apparent that the Opposition cannot match the leadership of the PM, and the organisational network of the BJP. People can talk about caste arithmetic and political calculations, but there is something called the PM’s connection with the people, and no arithmetic can defeat it,” said Siddharth Nath Singh, senior leader and BJP’s media in-charge for the Chhattisgarh election.

Vote against caste census

The victory in the three states against the Congress in a direct contest comes with the realisation for the BJP that in the next round of electoral battle, the political adversaries will be united against the party and Congress will not be alone in the contest to defeat the BJP in the 2024 polls.

Targeting the electoral strategies of the Congress-led INDIA alliance on the promise of conducting a nationwide caste census, senior leaders of the BJP are of the opinion that the verdict in the states is against the promise of a caste census. During the election campaign, the Congress party had promised that if it comes to power in the three states, it will conduct a caste based survey in the states.

“There is an attempt to divide the people of the country into different castes. But for me, there are only four castes. The women, youth, farmers, and the poor are the only four castes. We are working for the empowerment of these four castes because only then will the country get strengthened,” said PM Modi in his election victory. This is the first time that the PM has alleged that the Opposition is trying to divide the country into different castes.

OBCs and tribals

Speaking about the four castes, Modi also acknowledged that the victory of the BJP in the three states was because of the support of other backward classes (OBCs) and tribals for the BJP.

“Most of the women, youth, farmers, and poor have supported the BJP in this election,” the PM added. The attack on the caste census is also an attempt by the BJP leadership to derail the election campaign of the Opposition because the ruling party is under tremendous pressure from its allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), who are demanding a nationwide caste-based census.

The demand for a caste census which has been raised by the Opposition is also resonating with the NDA partners, who are forcing the BJP to announce a roadmap to conduct a caste-based census. Almost all the alliance partners in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Haryana, and Bihar have expressed support for a caste-based census.

“In a way, the verdict is against the caste-based census. Congress promised to conduct a caste survey in all three states, but people did not vote for Congress. It will be fair to say that people have voted against the election promises of the Congress,” said a senior BJP leader from Rajasthan.

Verdict against INDIA alliance

Pre-empting the Opposition plan to come together and corner the BJP through the ‘One Seat, One Contest’ plan of the Opposition, senior BJP leaders said that the verdict in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh was also against the Congress-led INDIA alliance, which is coming together to defeat the BJP in the 2024 polls.

After the victory, senior leaders of the BJP believe that the party was confident that the INDIA alliance would be able to challenge the election winning capabilities of the BJP in northern states that provide the most seats to the BJP. Members of the BJP affirmed that the BJP was in a comfortable position in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh for the Lok Sabha polls, along with Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat, that have voted for the party in the last two Lok Sabha polls.

“The victory of the BJP in the three states is a vote against the INDIA alliance. People do not have faith in the alliance of the Opposition parties. The coming together of several Opposition parties can make a good photo opportunity for the media, but it will not get the mandate of the people,” Modi said in the election speech.

Senior BJP leaders are hoping that the drubbing of the Congress party in the assembly elections has the potential to derail the Opposition alliance, as prominent regional parties would not be sure if the Congress can defeat the BJP in a direct contest. The BJP leaders also said that there was a possibility that some of the regional parties would be more inclined to join hands with the BJP and become a member of the NDA after the election results.

“The possibility of expansion of the NDA cannot be ruled out because it has become clear that Congress cannot defeat the BJP, so regional parties would not be confident in aligning with Congress,” said a senior BJP leader.