Telangana polls: For Congress, it's a long road to winning post

The Congress leader cannot be blamed for his optimism considering the large crowds turning up at his road shows combined with the favourable predictions of many opinion polls, and the positive vibe generated by the grand old party’s six poll guarantees in the state.

During his three-day tour in Telangana this week, Rahul launched the party’s campaign and interacted with Singareni coal miners as well as the general public in many constituencies.

Lure of six guarantees

Enthused by the response to the six guarantees the party had announced earlier, Priyanka Gandhi, the party’s general secretary, and Rahul’s sister added one more assurance to the poll package. She promised that electric scooters would be given to all female students above the age of 18. Priyanka made this promise while addressing a hugely attended public meeting at Mulug constituency on October 19.

Meanwhile, PCC president A Revanth Reddy in his election campaigns is going around assuring that if the Congress is voted to power the first file they will sign will be related to the implementation of these guarantees after the swearing-in ceremony of their government on December 10, 2023.

This ‘perception advantage’ of the ‘guarantees’ from the Congress victory in neighbouring Karnataka assembly elections, has pushed a nervous ruling Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) to take a reactive approach.

Thus, in their electoral campaigns, Telangana chief minister KCR and BRS' star campaigners, IT minister KT Ramarao and finance minister T Harish Rao, warn the public that if Congress is voted to power, they will be robbed of all benefits including the 24x7 free power to farmers.

This reaction from BRS has only made Telangana Congress leaders more confident about crossing the 60 seat mark in the Assembly, which will help them get a simple majority to form the government in the state.

Long way to winning post

But the Congress has a long way to go before it can reach the winning post.

If the Congress wants to form the government in Telangana, it has to win 60 seats out of the 119 seats in the Telangana Assembly. It will be a challenging task to achieve this number as the party won just 18 seats in 2018. In fact, the number has further dropped to a dismal 5 with 12 Congress MLAs defecting to BRS and one to BJP between 2018 and 2022.

The magic figure has proven so elusive for the Congress that it has never achieved the feat in the region in the 40 years from the time in 1983, when a formidable rival was born in the state in the form of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP).

In the Assembly election held in 1983, the first one after thespian NT Ramarao launched the TDP, the Congress, which ruled Andhra Pradesh (AP) since its formation in 1956, tasted a humiliating defeat. In combined AP, the TDP won 201 seats and the Congress secured just 60 with Telangana's share being 43. It was the end of Congress' monopoly in Telugu politics, especially in Telangana.

The Congress came to power three times (1989, 2004, and 2009) in the combined state of AP after 1983 by defeating the TDP. This was made possible largely by the strength of its numbers from Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema.

In 1985, the Congress won 50 in combined Andhra Pradesh, the contribution of Telangana for Congress was just 14 seats, while TDP bagged 59 seats out of 119. The rest went to the CPI (8), CPM (7), BJP (8), Janata Party (3) and Independents (8).

Even when the Congress came to power in 1989 by winning 181 out of 294, its tally from Telangana region was 58 seats, the highest ever for the party, from the region. The Opposition TDP bagged 19. Among others CPI won 8, CPM 4, BJP 5 Janata Party 1, and Independents 8.

Congress' worst performance

In 1994, when TDP bounced back with a thumping majority, the Congress registered its worst-ever performance. While NTR-led TDP bagged 226 seats of the total 294 seats Congress ended up as a poor second with 26 seats and Telangana contributing just 6.

Again in 1999, when TDP retained its dominance in the Assembly by winning 180 seats under the leadership of Chandrababu Naidu, the Congress bagged 91 seats. The share of Telangana was 42. In 2004, the Congress staged a comeback after two successive defeats at the hands of TDP with a majority of 185 seats under the leadership of YS Rajasekhar Reddy.

Even though the Congress wave swept across the state, in the Telangana region, the Congress’ juggernaut did not cross 48 seats. The Congress fought the election in alliance with TRS (now BRS).

In the 2009 Assembly polls, though the Congress returned to power, its winning margin fell to 156 seats. But it won 50 seats from Telangana, 2 more over the previous share of 48, but far below the holy grail of 60 seats.

Formation of Telangana

However, the formation of Telangana state in 2014 proved to be a disaster for Congress despite its key role in the passage of the Andhra Pradesh State Reorganisation Bill that led to the bifurcation of the state. The state formation even drove the TDP out of Telangana and the vote bank responsible for the TDP's success in the region seems to have favoured the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS now BRS) led by K Chandrasekhar Rao.

This was evident from the result of the 2014 election. The Congress suffered a jolt in the election and its strength fell to just 21 out of 119 Assembly constituencies from the region. TDP which formed the government in the residuary Andhra Pradesh, also failed to retain its strength in Telangana. It bagged just 15 seats.

In 2018, the Congress's influence shrank further when it bagged just 18 seats, failing to get even the status as Opposition party. And the TDP almost disappeared as it won just two seats. The absolute majority TRS won in the 2018 election with 88 seats was viewed as a clear indication of the shift of TDP's vote bank to the former.

Against this backdrop, it will surely be a record of sorts for Congress if it breaks the jinx and touches the magic figure of 60 in the November 30 election. Clearly, it can achieve this only by luring back the voters from the BRS.