MP: Suspense over Chouhan's political future as BJP fighting polls without CM face

With the BJP fielding top guns in the electoral arena in Madhya Pradesh assembly elections, speculations are rife over the political future of Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the longest-serving chief minister of the state.

Chouhan has been the chief minister for almost 20 years, but for a brief period from December 2018 to March 2020 when the Congress led by Kamal Nath ruled the state and the initial stints of Uma Bharati and Babulal Gaur as CM in the BJP’s 2003-2008 tenure. Interestingly, the BJP is now shying away from naming him the party’s chief ministerial candidate apparently worried about fatigue setting in. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has graced several occasions in the poll-bound state, but he too has not mentioned Chouhan’s name in his speeches.

There are various factors that have fuelled these speculations. The BJP has fielded four heavyweights in the poll fray this time and they all have political heft to be the contenders for the top post. Among them are three Union ministers --- Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Singh Patel and Faggan Singh Kulaste. Apart from this trio, the party has also fielded general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya from Indore.

CM ambitions

It is no secret that these leaders have been nursing chief ministerial ambitions for long. Another reason that led to rumour mills working overtime was the delay in announcement of Chouhan’s candidature from his home turf Budhni. His name came out in the BJP’s fourth list just a few days back.

Though Tomar is cagey about his ambition, his supporters are openly canvassing for him in the Dimni seat in Bhind district as the potential chief minister. Vijajvargiya, however, has made no bones of his ambitions. He has clearly said that the high command has not fielded him to become merely an MLA; there is a plan at a high level for his elevation.

Prahlad Patel, the BJP candidate in Narsinghpur, also considers himself in the reckoning for the top job, assuming that he is the most powerful OBC face in the party in MP in case Chouhan is eased out. Kulaste, too, is eyeing the post hoping that his seniority and tribal credentials will be positively valued by the high command in the state where 47 out of 230 seats are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes. Moreover, tribals have a significant presence in at least 50 general seats as well.

Sources close to Chouhan said the chief minister wasn’t kept in loop when the party announced the names of seven MPs, including three Union minister, for the state assembly elections. He was caught by surprise when the list came out. “We had an inkling that Vijayvargiya may contest, but the fielding of Union ministers was a surprise. Now, we don’t know who will the next chief minister,” said sources.

No CM face

Behind the scenes, the BJP leaders also admit that they are sidestepping the issue of declaring their CM face. A senior BJP leader said, “Fielding of several experienced leaders in the electoral battlefield gives the impression of collective leadership. It also takes away the so-called fatigue factor (against Chouhan), as voters will see several faces at the front in the BJP.” Another senior leader, involved in the state campaign, said, “The BJP has showcased that it has a range of big leaders representing various caste groups and areas. We have also shown that we are into long-term build-up. We are serious about winning Madhya Pradesh.” He also hinted that the campaign material will not solely focus on Chouhan and will rather highlight the battery of leaders.

Moreover, Tomar, Patel, Kulaste and Vijayvargiya played an active role in organising the BJP’s Jan Ashirwad Yatra, which covered 230 Assembly constituencies and over 10,000 km across the state. With the central leadership completely taking over the reins of the yatra, Chouhan was virtually eclipsed. The BJP has been grappling with factionalism in the state, leading to the direct involvement of Union Home Minister Amit Shah in the party’s campaign.

Conflicting cues

Meanwhile, Chief Minister Chouhan too is giving conflicting signals regarding his political future. In recent election speech at his Budhni constituency on Sunday, he sought to whip up nostalgia in his audience as though this tenure is his swansong by saying, “Aisa bhaiyya nahin milega. Jab mein chala jaunga, tab bahut yaad aaunga (You won’t get a brother like me. When I go away, you will miss me a lot.) His pain and anguish at being “ignored for the top job” was visible in a rally in Sehore recently when he quipped, “You will miss me when I am gone.”

However, he posed a question to the audience in an election meeting in Dindori, “Should Mama (as he is popularly called) become chief minister or not?” In yet another public interaction, he cryptically remarked, “I may look thin physically but I am a strong fighter.”

BJP alarmed

On the other hand, the BJP high command is alarmed by Chouhan’s utterances in the rallies hinting at his political future, particularly after the Congress decision to up the ante on the caste census in Madhya Pradesh.

Chouhan undoubtedly is the most powerful OBC leader in Madhya Pradesh BJP, having pushed his predecessor Uma Bharti to the political wilderness. Union minister Prahlad Patel, who is contesting the assembly election from Narsinghpur, is another prominent OBC leader in the state BJP, but in terms of mass appeal across the state, he is no match to Chouhan.

As BJP’s mascot in the three assembly elections in 2008, 2013, and 2018, his OBC credential came in handy for Chouhan to emerge as the undisputed leader of the ruling party. Even when the BJP toppled the Kamal Nath government following the revolt by Jyotiraditya Scindia and his aides in March 2020, the party high command had to anoint him as the chief minister for a fourth time, primarily because of his strong sway on the OBCs.

OBCs, the most formidable vote bloc, are the BJP’s core strength in Madhya Pradesh. The BJP owed – to a great extent – its victories in successive assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh since 2003 to the steadfast support it got from the OBCs, which comprise over 50% of the state’s population.

Though Chouhan has served as the chief minister for multiple terms and is widely credited as a popular leader, his reputation and political future are now closely tied to this poll's outcome. If the BJP manages to secure a comfortable majority, it will consolidate his position within the party and strengthen his leadership in the state. On the other hand, a loss could raise questions about his ability to win elections and govern effectively.