Rajasthan Assembly polls: Can Congress buck the see-saw trend finally?

With fewer than five months left for the general elections in April-May 2024, a precursor to this key electoral battle is currently being witnessed in the Rajasthan Assembly elections. 

For the ruling Congress party under Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot is directly pitted against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is going all out to experiment with new electoral strategies in this election. 

As the Congress tries to make history by retaining power for a consecutive term in the state, the BJP too is trying to win a landmark victory, as the saffron party hopes to romp home with 150 seats in this assembly polls.

In the last three decades of political history in Rajasthan, no political party has managed to retain power for a second consecutive term in the state, with the BJP and the Congress alternatively forming the government in the state every five years. However, the Congress party seems confident that it will be able to return to power in the state, and the issues of anti-incumbency and allegations of corruption hurled by the BJP will not impact their electoral fortunes.

The polling in Rajasthan is scheduled to take place on November 25, and counting of votes is scheduled to take place on December 3, which will decide the fate of the two national parties. At a press conference in Jaipur on Thursday (November 23), a combative Gehlot dismissed the BJP thus: “After the 25th, BJP won't show its face here (Rajasthan)."

Crucial test

The assembly election in Rajasthan is indeed a crucial test for both the BJP and Congress ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. While Congress battles the anti-incumbency factor among other issues, BJP too has maintained its dominance in the state by winning all 25 Lok Sabha constituencies since the 2014 national polls but it has not being able to display the same electoral dominance when it comes to the state elections.

The Rajasthan election plays a significant part in the Congress campaign to end the decade-long rule of the BJP nationally because, after the victories in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, a win in Rajasthan will be the third victory for Congress against the BJP in a direct contest.

“Congress promoted Rajasthan to the number one position in riots, crime, corruption, and paper leak, we will promote Rajasthan to the number one position in tourism, investments, industries, and education. Five years ago, when Congress came to power, they stopped all our schemes. On December 3, when the BJP comes to power, we will take forward the schemes that will benefit the people of the state,” said Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday at a public meeting in Deogarh, Rajasthan.

BJP’s leadership gamble

In a move that has drastically altered the nature of the election campaigning of the BJP in Rajasthan, it is the first time in nearly five decades that the BJP has not named a chief ministerial candidate in the state. It is the first time in Rajasthan politics that the BJP has decided to contest in the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi instead of naming any state leader as the chief ministerial candidate of the party.

To further change its style of election campaign, the BJP has also asked at least seven sitting Members of Parliament (MPs) to contest assembly elections. Among the prominent leaders who have been asked to contest state polls this time were former union minister Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, parliamentarian Mahant Balak Nath, who is an MP from Alwar, and Rajya Sabha member Kirodi Lal Meena.

“The BJP is forming the government in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh,” asserted PM Modi at a public meeting on the last day of campaigning in Rajasthan.

Rebel candidates

The decision of the BJP to change the campaign style drastically was not accepted by the state leadership of Rajasthan, and there were as many as 21 rebels who decided to contest as independents after being denied an election ticket by the BJP. However, a majority of these leaders finally decided not to contest the polls after the intervention of PM Modi, who personally spoke to these rebel candidates and asked them not to contest the election as an independent candidate.

Political analysts believe that BJP’s election campaign was a ‘political risk’ as the party did not name a chief ministerial candidate and completely relied on the popularity of PM Modi for state polls.

“The election campaign of the BJP was very interesting because the entire poll strategy was against the basic nature of the BJP. The party has always projected a chief ministerial candidate in Rajasthan, but it is for the first time that there is no state leader of the BJP and the focus of the campaign is either the Prime Minister or the lotus symbol,” said Avinash Kalla, Jaipur-based political analyst and independent journalist.

Anti-incumbency and rebellion

Ahead of the elections in Rajasthan, the Congress party under Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot was in the news, but for all the wrong reasons. Instead of focusing on ways to defeat the BJP, which is the main challenger, internal disputes within Congress remained the point of discussion.

The challenge for Gehlot did not just come from the BJP but the leadership tussle with senior Congress leader Sachin Pilot was also an obstacle for the CM. Although there was internal strife within Congress between Gehlot and Pilot over the leadership issue, the problem remained under control because of the intervention of Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi, the former Congress president.

“The BJP does not have much to show on their report card... Everyone is able to see the chaos in the Rajasthan BJP... They should stop worrying about me. My party and the people will worry about me. I am very positive about the result,” said Sachin Pilot, senior Congress leader, on the last day of campaigning.

The problem in Congress did not just remain between Gehlot and Pilot, but the Congress leadership had to expel at least 50 leaders who rebelled against the party and decided to contest the election as independents. With a total of 200 assembly seats in Rajasthan, the Congress has a rebel candidate in 25 per cent of the constituencies.

BJP campaign

Sensing problems within Congress, the BJP focussed its election campaign on the issues of corruption, the problem of law and order, and crime against women, with the hope that these issues would help the BJP defeat Gehlot.

“Red Diary has become the symbol of Congress’s corruption. It never happened in Indian history that ₹2.35 crore cash and 1 kg of gold was caught in the ministry’s cupboard, but there was no reaction from CM Ashok Gehlot. I have never seen anybody reacting so casually to corruption,” said Amit Shah, union home minister, during the press meet in Jaipur on Thursday.

Taking note of the BJP campaign, Gehlot has made seven promises to the people of Rajasthan. According to the Congress leadership, if the party comes to power, it will give ₹10,000 to the female head of the family, laptops and computers to college students, the old pension scheme and cooking gas cylinders at ₹500. The Congress has also promised to conduct a caste based survey if it returns to power in Rajasthan.

Attacking the BJP, Gehlot said, “The way these people do conspiracies, recently the matter of Mahadev App came forward, and they had conspired to arrest Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel. I feel sad. They are making the PM talk about the Mahadev App and Red Diary after planning about it. “

“There is no proper investigation, nothing solid, and the PM is speaking about it. They had a conspiracy to arrest him (Bhupesh Baghel). ED and IT had raided 50 times in Rajasthan, did any politician or bureaucrat get caught?” asked Gehlot in Jaipur at a press meet.