MP polls: Friendly fire may damage Congress as it faces INDIA allies in 92 segments

Though Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections are being largely seen as a battle between the ruling BJP and the Opposition Congress, the latter will end up facing its INDIA alliance partners in 92 of the state’s 230 assembly constituencies.

The Congress, which formed the government in 2018 with a wafer-thin majority, may end up paying a heavy price for not forging an alliance with the Samajwadi Party that had even approached it for the same. Now, in the prevailing scenario, the Congress will end up fighting against the BJP as well as two of its INDIA bloc partners --- Samajwadi Party (SP) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) --- in 26 of these 92 assembly constituencies. In three other segments, the Congress will be facing the candidates of AAP as well as Janata Dal (United).

All these INDIA alliance partners went ahead to declare their candidates as the seat-sharing talks with the Congress failed. Among them, the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP has fielded the maximum number of candidates, 70, followed by the SP with 43 and JDU with 10, as per the figures available till October 29. The SP and the AAP have even fielded candidates that have incumbent Congress MLAs. The presence of these two parties in the electoral arena could well cut into the anti-BJP vote that would have gone to Congress in case of a direct contest.

Multi-cornered contest

What should worry Congress is the fact that out of the 92 constituencies, 14 are those where the party lost by narrow margins in the last assembly polls. These include Gwalior South (margin of 121 votes), Jabalpur North (578 votes), Damoh (798 votes), Rajnagar (732 votes), Chandla (1,177 votes), Nagod (1,234 votes), Indore-5 (1,133 votes) and Gunnour (1,984 votes).

In this situation, the candidates fielded by SP and AAP may upset the Congress’ calculations in seats where a close contest is expected. This assumes significance as the pre-poll surveys have predicted a neck-to-neck fight between the two national parties in the state. As per the India TV-CNX opinion poll released on October 27, the BJP is projected to win 115 seats, whereas, the Congress is predicted to secure victory in 110 constituencies.

In the Chambal region, the SP is contesting seats like Sabalgarh, Jaura, Sumawali and Dimni, where Congress won in 2018 and is confident of retaining them. However, in Bundelkhand and Vindhya regions, the party is contesting the seats that BJP won in the last assembly elections.

In the 2018 assembly elections, the SP had fielded candidates in 52 seats, winning only one and finishing second on six assembly segments. The AAP had failed to open its account but secured a vote share of 0.66 percent. However, this time the AAP says their condition has improved and their vote share has gone up which was reflected in the local body polls. The party now boasts of having a mayor and 52 corporators in the state. The JDU had not entered the poll fray in 2018.

Congress snubs SP

Earlier, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav had made an effort to ally with the Congress by approaching PCC chief and former Chief Minister Kamal Nath. However, the party was forced to announce its candidates after the Congress cold-shouldered its bid to have an alliance.

A fuming Yadav said, “If the Congress didn’t want to give seats (in MP), then they should have said it before. Today, the SP is fighting only on seats where it has its organisation. Now, I know that the INDIA alliance is only meant for the Lok Sabha elections.” 

“If the Congress continues to behave like this, then who will trust them? If we fight with confusion in mind against the BJP, then we won't succeed,” he added. He also reminded the Congress that the SP had extended support to it to form their government in Madhya Pradesh – not once but twice.

‘Won’t have any impact’

On the other hand, Congress leader Randeep Singh Surjewala said, “We have been talking to our INDIA alliance friends from time to time. Sometimes coordination with them (on issues) gets established and sometimes it may not. But in principle and terms of policies, we are fighting together in the country on the issues of unemployment, inflation and corruption.”

Madhya Pradesh Congress spokesperson KK Mishra said the INDIA bloc is a national-level alliance meant for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the parties like SP and AAP are contesting the assembly elections to protect their own identity. He contended that these parties would cut into the votes of both Congress and BJP. He said it will not make much of an impact on their poll prospects and it is a straight fight between the Congress and the BJP.

The 230 seats of Madhya Pradesh will go to polls in a single phase on November 17. The counting of votes has been scheduled by the Election Commission on December 3.