MP polls | Ground Report: Aqueels' succession war gives BJP the edge in Bhopal North

An acrimonious battle over who is the true heir to the political legacy of six-time legislator Arif Aqueel has given the BJP a visible edge in the Bhopal North constituency, the only Assembly segment in the Madhya Pradesh capital that the saffron party has been unable to wrest from the Congress in 25 years.

The succession war between Congress nominee Atif Aqueel and independent candidate Aamir Aqueel, Arif’s son and brother, respectively, has brought BJP candidate Alok Sharma closer to the prospect of victory than any other BJP leader who has contested from the Bhopal North seat since 1998. The only time that the BJP ever won this constituency was in 1993, when the party’s Ramesh Sharma ‘Guttu Babu’ bested Arif in an election that was fought under the polarising impact of the December 6, 1992 demolition of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya and the communal riots that had spread subsequently across various parts of the country, Bhopal included.

Arif’s political fief

Bhopal North, with an estimated Muslim population of nearly 50 per cent, has been Arif’s political fief since he first won it as an independent candidate in 1990. After the 1993 setback, Arif consolidated his support in the constituency in the 1998 polls and has retained it in four subsequent polls, winning Bhopal North even in 2003 and 2008 when the Congress lost the other six constituencies that fall under Bhopal district; including Bhopal Central and Narela, which have over 45 per cent Muslim voters.

In the recent past, Bhopal North also stood out from the other Assembly segments in the state as even the BJP would frequently field a Muslim candidate here. In the 2013 Assembly polls, the BJP had fielded former Union minister Arif Baig from Bhopal North. Five years later, the saffron party nominated Fatima Siddiqui, daughter of late Rasool Ahmed Siddiqui, a former Congress stalwart who represented Bhopal North through the 1980s, to take on Arif.

The current elections, though, are being fought under vastly altered circumstances. Over the past few years, the 71-year-old Arif’s steadily failing health had triggered intense speculation within Bhopal’s political circles on who between his son and brother would the six-time legislator bequeath his seat to. Over the past several years, Aamir, a former municipal corporator, had been his elder brother’s political apprentice; standing in for Arif whenever the latter was unavailable to attend political or social gatherings.

Many Arif supporters believe the Congress veteran, who had spent several weeks at a Delhi hospital earlier this year after undergoing a coronary bypass and later also suffering a brain haemorrhage, erred in pushing his son, Atif, as his political heir. That Atif and Aamir did not get along well was common knowledge both within the Congress and in Arif’s constituency and so, it surprised none that when the Congress named Atif as its candidate, Aamir declared he would contest as an independent as he was the “true heir” to Arif’s political legacy.

What has made matters worse for the Congress in this constituency, where it took its victory prospects for granted, is that other leaders who had waited years for their turn to stake claim for the seat once Arif walked into the sunset too feel jilted by Atif’s candidature.

Unhappy with the Congress “treating the Bhopal North seat as if it was Arif Aqueel’s jagir (property) that must pass on to his successor”, Nasir Islam, who had narrowly lost the 2008 polls to the BJP as a Congress candidate from the adjoining Bhopal Central seat, has entered the contest in Bhopal North as an independent. Also in the fray is another Muslim candidate and known Arif-baiter, former corporator Mohammed Saud, who is contesting on an Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) ticket.

Arif confident people will 'bless' Atif

During their campaign, both Atif and Aamir invoke “the work done by Arif Aqueel” but this is where the similarity in their rhetoric ends and gives way to attacks against each other. While Atif accuses his uncle of “betraying the family”, Aamir tells voters that his nephew is a “nausikhiya (novice) who doesn’t even know his way around the constituency”. Caught in between the two, the wheel-chair bound Arif, who joins his son’s campaign in between bouts of hospitalisation, urges voters to “protect my honour just as I have protected yours all these years”.

“If I am alive today after suffering a brain haemorrhage and a heart attack, it is because of the blessings of the people of Bhopal Uttar. They have always trusted me and I have always worked for them. I am in the last lap of my life now and all I can tell my people is that my son, Atif, will stand by them just as I have all these years. Atif’s fate is in their hands and I am confident they will give him their blessings,” Arif told The Federal.

In the crowded bylanes around Laxmi Talkies, where the Aqueels still stay together under one roof, the locals speak emotionally about Arif but concede, almost tearfully, that “abke seat toh BJP nikaal legi (the BJP will win this time)”. Though many agree that Arif “made a bad judgment” by denying his brother the seat, they are also as incensed at Atif’s betrayal.

“Aamir should have acted more responsibly; after all, if Atif wins, the seat will still be in the family and, more importantly, the community (Muslims) will not lose its MLA. By contesting as an independent, Aamir has not just insulted his elder brother and made the election difficult for Atif but also made it possible for the BJP to win this seat... if the BJP wins Bhopal North, sabse zyada nuksaan quam ka hoga (the community will suffer the most)... Aamir refuses to understand this,” says Zaheer Ahmed, a mechanic in the Laxmi Talkies locality.

Sharma: Will get 'undivided vote of Hindus'

Unlike the palpable pall of gloom in Arif’s strongholds of Laxmi Talkies, Qazi Camp and Shahjahanabad, the mood at Sharma’s election office near Imami Gate is buoyant. “Alok Sharma is about to create history. For 25 years, Arif Aqueel has terrorised people and ruled Bhopal North because of his communal politics. He has not done any development work despite being an MLA for six terms. The identity of Bhopal North, because of Arif, has become bad roads, slums, open drains, garbage dumps and goonda raj of some people belonging to one religion; all this is about to change... It is good that these people (Atif, Aamir, Nasir and Saud) are fighting amongst themselves; the advantage is with Alok bhaiyya and he will win with a huge margin,” says Abhay Jain, a Sharma supporter who owns a jewellery store at the Chowk in Old Bhopal.

Sharma, a former Bhopal Mayor and close aide of chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, makes no bones in admitting that he will get the “undivided vote of Hindus” but says he is also “reaching out to Muslims”. “I want to assure Muslims that I will work for them with the same dedication as I will work for the Hindus but ultimately it is for them to decide if they want to support me or waste their vote by supporting Atif or Aamir,” Sharma told The Federal.