Moody's projects Indian economy to contract 11.5% this fiscal

Moody’s Investors Service on Friday (September 11) slashed India’s growth projection for the current fiscal to (-) 11.5 per cent, from (-) 4 per cent estimated earlier.

It said India’s credit profile is increasingly constrained by low growth, high debt burden and weak financial system. These risks have been exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic.

“Mutually reinforcing risks from deeper stresses in the economy and financial system could lead to a more severe and prolonged erosion in fiscal strength, exerting further pressure on the credit profile,” Moody’s said while projecting an 11.5 per cent contraction in Indian economy this fiscal.

For 2021-22, it projected the economy to clock a growth of 10.6 per cent.

Moody’s action follows another global rating agency Fitch, which earlier this week, projected a 10.5 per cent contraction in Indian economy this fiscal. Domestic agencies Crisil and India Ratings and Research have projected contraction of 9 per cent and 11.8 per cent, respectively.

However, dismissing the predictions and ratings made by various agencies, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das claimed foreign investors’ trust in India was intact.

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“Irrespective of rating upgrade or downgrade, India has continued to enjoy the trust of foreign investors, both in terms of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) and foreign direct investment (FDI),” Financial Express quoted Shaktikanta Das as saying.

“It is the government’s policies, macroeconomic fundamentals, and the outlook that foreign investors have on an economy that matters,” the RBI Governor added in his interview, which was published in RBI’s May bulletin.