Each region of UP thinks differently; which way will the votes go?

The BJP has been the preeminent electoral force in Uttar Pradesh since 2014, when Narendra Modi swept to power at the Centre. In the two major elections since – the 2017 Assembly polls and the 2019 Lok Sabha election – the State has handsomely rewarded the saffron party.

When the results of the 2017 election were announced, it was clear that the BJP had, once again, wiped the floor with the Opposition in all major regions of the State. Western UP,  Purvanchal, Awadh and Bundelkhand all turned saffron as the BJP picked up 312 seats in the Assembly – its best ever performance. 

Interestingly, the party dropped its normal strategy of fighting polls with a chief minister face. The 2017 election was fought with no CM candidate, and the BJP sprung a surprise post victory by handing over the crown to Yogi Adityanath.

Following the election, the BJP’s nearest rival, the regional Samajwadi Party (SP), with 47 seats, was reduced to just three clusters: its historic strongholds of Etawah, Jaswantnagar and Mainpuri in Doab, where the members of the party’s founding Yadav family contest; a clutch of seats in Rohilkhand, where the share of Muslim population is the highest; and a smaller share in Purvanchal, where the Muslim-Yadav coalition, the party’s vote bank, is strong.

The SP’s ally Congress – a minor player in UP politics for many years – won only seven seats, while its regional rival, the BSP (19 seats), was swept out of its stronghold in western UP, where the Dalit-Muslim combination of votes that Mayawati was eyeing did not materialise. The Congress has been reduced to a negligible force in the State, but the emergence of Priyanka Gandhi as a force of change may help the party to an extent.

Although the BJP remains the dominant party going into the 2022 election season, it is unlikely to repeat its record-breaking performance. From anti-incumbency to farmer discontent to a likely SP resurgence, the BJP faces several issues in the State. The Federal looks at the state of play in the major regions of UP as it votes for the next government.

Western UP: Kisan protest, a key factor

The 2013 riots in Muzaffarnagar, which poisoned relations between the Jats and Muslims, allowed the BJP to sweep the region in 2014, 2017 and 2019. More than 100 of the region’s 135 Assembly segments and all but five — Amroha, Bijnor, Moradabad, Nagina and Rampur — of its 27 parliamentary constituencies are currently with the BJP.

But now, the voters of western UP might be looking for a change. The recent farmer protests in this largely agrarian region have galvanised voters. The community is in no hurry to forgive Modi and the BJP the excesses it braved during the peasants’ agitation, which led to the death of more than 700 farmers. 

Although the government and the farmers have reached a temporary truce, a lack of guaranteed MSP (minimum support price) on procurement still remains a sticking point. Bharatiya Kisan Union leader Rakesh Tikait, among those who led the protest,  has repeatedly demanded legal guarantees for MSP, and is waiting for the government to form its promised panel to discuss the issue.

Sikhs across several segments, specially Terai’s Pilibhit and Sultanpur, where the wounds of the October 3 Lakhimpur Kheri violence are yet to heal, continue to be angry with the Centre. Also fuelling discontent among voters are mounting sugarcane dues, rising power tariffs at village homes and farmlands and the stray animal menace. 

The SP has stitched a formidable alliance with Jayant Chaudhary’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), a party concentrated in half-a-dozen western districts and one that has the region’s agrarian community as its main base. As new solidarities emerge between the Jats and Sikhs, the BJP will want to hold on to the votes of Gurjars, Thakurs, Rajputs and Dalits to somewhat balance the equation.

Western Uttar Pradesh, geographically close to Punjab and Haryana, is among the beneficiaries of the Green Revolution. Some of its cities, such as Ghaziabad, are part of the National Capital Region (NCR), and highly urbanised. The people in this region are more likely to vote with economic prosperity in mind, and the BJP’s caste arithmetic may not be fully successful here. The Jats are a dominant community here, and they are known to be politically assertive.

Purvanchal: A traditional BJP bastion

Purvanchal accounts for more than 130 of UP’s 403 Assembly seats and, in 2017, the BJP had swept the region, winning more than 100. The region is home to Varanasi, the Prime Minister’s Parliamentary constituency, and Gorakhpur, the Chief Minister’s Assembly seat (earlier, his Parliamentary seat, too). That, among other factors, make it imperative for the BJP to land a win in the region.

But things are not looking good for the party this time. Factors such as inflation, petrol and diesel price hikes, unemployment, the devastation wrought by the second wave of the pandemic, and the stray cattle menace have all led to grievances among the electorate. 

There are other factors too, one political expert told The Federal recently. The non-Jatav Dalits and non-Yadav OBCs who had consolidated behind the BJP don’t find any improvement in their lives and are now exploring alternatives. And, a section of Brahmins – the community is numerically strong in Purvanchal – is upset at Adityanath’s ‘Thakur-waad’ (inclination towards Thakurs), said the political expert. 

Given the BJP’s shaky position in the west, it is important for the party to put up a decent show in the east if it wants to retain power. Mindful of that fact, Modi has in recent months repeatedly visited Purvanchal and announced grandiose development projects.

Awadh: Wind could blow either way

Awadh, which comprises the politically significant districts of Lucknow, Ayodhya, Kannauj, Etawah, Mainpuri, Kanpur, Rae Bareli, Amethi and Unnao, among others, has given the country three Prime Ministers: Indira Gandhi, VP Singh and Atal Bihari Vajpayee. In 2017, the BJP won 116 of the 137 seats in the region, and the SP bagged 11 while the BSP drew a blank. The result was a contrast to the 2012 election, when the SP won 95 and the BJP 12 seats. 

Etawah, Mainpuri, Etah, Kannauj are SP strongholds but in 2017 the party lost nine out of 14 seats in these districts. Rae Bareli and Amethi, for long the bastions  of the Congress, have gone the BJP way in recent elections. These trends indicate that Awadh does not have a fixed preference for any party, though recent opinion polls have predicted a BJP win in the region.

SCs have a substantial presence in Awadh and Muslims form 15-20% of the population. The Yadavs and Kurmis are also dominant and about one-fourth of the population is upper caste.

Bundelkhand: Big on development agenda

Voters across castes opted for the BJP in 2017, helping it win all the 19 seats. Bundelkhand, which lies between UP and Madhya Pradesh, has traditionally been socially and economically backward, and was a BSP stronghold before 2017. 

In 2012, Mayawati’s party had won the highest number of seven seats, while the SP was at five, Congress at four and BJP at three seats. The BJP lost one in the by-election that followed.

The BJP has been pushing its development agenda in the region, with the promise of jobs. Bundelkhand is set to be central to the proposed Uttar Pradesh defence industrial corridor, according to the government. The foundation stone of a missile factory has already been laid. Work has also begun on linking rivers Ken and Betwa, according to the government. The project is said to benefit 62 lakh people.

While the parties do their arithmetic and the opinion polls their data collection, March 10 will tell how Uttar Pradesh’s regions voted – homogeneously, or with vast differences across regions.