Phase 5 polls, a battle that may seal BJP’s fate in Uttar Pradesh

A temple town whose bloodied past altered India’s present and future politics like none other in contemporary modern history. A region infamous for its baahubalis (musclemen) and new age feudal lords of a still-evolving democracy. An amorphous electorate that doesn’t fit into media-coined casteist descriptions of Jatland, Muslim belt, Yadav stronghold or Jatav bastion but revels in a microcosm, and resultant complexities, of communities – Brahmins, Thakurs, OBCs, MBCs (other/most backward castes), Dalits, et al.

An expanse of paradoxes with sprawling agricultural fields and starving, debt-ridden farmers and historical heroes who’ve been hailed as icons but whose descendants struggle for a life of dignity and one where the convergence of India’s holiest rivers is a celebrated symbol of syncretism while the divisions of caste and religion are an appalling reality.

Also read: 692 candidates in fray for 61 seats in 5th phase of voting today

The fifth phase of the ongoing Uttar Pradesh assembly polls that will see votes cast for 61 assembly constituencies spread across 11 districts on Sunday (February 27), is the sum of these incongruities, harsh truths and much more. For the ruling BJP, which had navigated these complexities with stunning ease over the past eight years – particularly in 2017 when it won 312 of UP’s 403 assembly seats – these same intricacies of realpolitik are now, increasingly, appearing to be burdensome. The Samajwadi Party, riding on the perceived popularity of its alliance with multiple caste-based outfits, looks buoyant of its victory prospects; its leader, former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav, claiming that the coalition has already crossed the majority mark in the earlier four phases of polling and will now consolidate its lead further.

Verdict of crucial constituencies

In the 2017 UP polls, the BJP had won 47 of the 61 constituencies that go to polls on Sunday; its ally, Apna Dal (Sonelal) had won another three. The SP, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party and the Congress had won just five, three and one seat, respectively. Two other constituencies had been bagged by independents, including the Kunda seat in Pratapgarh district that, with a victory margin of over a lakh votes, once again elected the notorious gangster Raghuraj Pratap Singh aka Raja Bhaiyya.

Of the 47 seats that the BJP had won in this belt in 2017, the party had recorded a victory margin of over 40,000 votes in nine seats. In another 22 seats its candidates defeated their nearest rival by margins ranging between 25,000 and 40,000 votes. In only six of the 47 constituencies that the BJP had won, the party had a victory margin of less than 10,000 votes; the lowest in Shrawasti where its nominee, Ram Feran, defeated his nearest rival from the SP, Mohd. Ramzan, by just 445 votes.

These statistics convey the position of strength that the BJP enjoyed over its rivals in these 61 constituencies. And then there’s the perceptible symbolism of how crucial this phase is for the BJP, for today’s polling also includes the one constituency that has defined the BJP’s politics for not just the four decades of its existence in its current avatar, but also the preceding ones, since 1951.

Fight for Ayodhya

Ayodhya, the town where the Babri Masjid once stood before it was razed to the ground by the BJP’s rabid Hindutva brigade and where construction of a bhavya (grand) Ram Mandir is now underway, votes today. The importance of Ayodhya for the BJP, or the party’s electoral strength on this seat that it has lost only once – to the SP in 2012 – since 1991, needs no canvassing. In the run-up to the polls, it was widely rumoured that Adityanath would contest from Ayodhya – a move seen by many as a means to buttress further his credentials as the next in line to appropriate the ‘Hindu Hriday Samrat’ moniker that the BJP had bestowed on LK Advani in the 1990s and then on Narendra Modi beginning 2002.

Machinations within the top echelons of the BJP led Adityanath to return to his home turf of Gorakhpur while the party decided to field its sitting Ayodhya MLA, Ved Prakash Gupta, once again from the seat.

As ironic as it may seem, despite all the chest-thumping by the BJP leadership over its role in paving way for the communally polarising and Hindu-appeasing Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, the constituency today also symbolises why the saffron party’s victory prospects in the high-stakes UP poll battle are shrouded in uncertainty.

“For a party whose entire existence and political purpose has revolved around Ayodhya, it is most curious to see the BJP struggling to retain this constituency. This is not just on account of heavy anti-incumbency against Ved Prakash Gupta or a perceptible wave for the SP-led coalition… large number of people in Ayodhya want the election to be about issues of their livelihood and not the Ram Mandir. The BJP could use Ram Mandir as a poll card till the matter was caught in a legal dispute but now the temple’s construction is underway and by next year it is expected to be ready. Though it may sound odd to an outsider but, at least in this election, the Ram Mandir has become an electoral liability for the BJP due to many reasons,” says veteran journalist Sheetal Singh.

Also read: UP round 3 over: Akhilesh, BJP ooze confidence as Maya speaks of surprise

Singh says that though the BJP may “scrape through” in Ayodhya, it faces a tough contest here from the SP nominee – Tej Pratap alias Pawan Pandey, who had registered a surprise victory from the constituency for the SP in 2012. “Over the past six months, allegations of massive corruption involving funds meant for the temple, BJP leaders and people occupying positions in the trust that has been formed for the temple’s construction have come to light. These aside, the state government announced a road-widening and beautification project for the area around the temple site due to which a huge number of shops and homes were broken down, partly or completely, without following due procedure or paying adequate compensation. Joblessness, price rise, stray cattle are as big a problem here as they are anywhere else in the state. Senior BJP leaders are making desperate attempts to pacify voters, seeking votes in the name of Lord Ram, conducting havans, distributing prasad and soil from the temple site but none of these seem to be working,” Singh said.

Anti-incumbency wave

If retaining hold of Ayodhya is proving to be tough for the BJP, the party’s condition is no better in other districts where polling is due today. Several of the party’s high-profile candidates are in the fray, including deputy chief minister and the party’s tallest backward caste leader in the state – Keshav Prasad Maurya – who was shifted from his Phulpur constituency in Allahabad to contest the polls from Sirathu in the Kaushambi district. Besides Maurya, senior cabinet ministers, Sidharth Nath Singh and Nand Kumar Nandi, are also seeking re-election from Allahabad West and Allahabad South seats, respectively.

Earlier this month, videos of angry voters chasing Maurya away and accusing him of doing nothing for the people in the five years that he has been deputy chief minister had gone viral. A local BJP leader from Allahabad told this reporter, “We had won all three seats in Kaushambi, while of Allahabad’s 12 assembly segments, the BJP had bagged eight and our ally (Apna Dal-Sonelal) had got one in 2017… now with the exception of Allahabad South, we are not sure of winning any of these seats; there is massive anti-incumbency and in many areas our leaders are not even able to go out for campaigning.”

“Everyone is fed up with the BJP due to rising prices, joblessness, COVID mismanagement during the second wave, stray cattle and many other issues but people were unsure whether the SP is strong enough to defeat the BJP. Now, after polling is over in half the state, even local BJP leaders are saying cycle (the SP poll symbol) is winning… in my village, 90 per cent people will vote for SP,” Awadesh Kumar, a resident of Karachhana village in Allahabad district, told The Federal.

A senior BJP leader from Allahabad, who did not wish to be named, told The Federal that besides livelihood issues and anti-incumbency, there is another major factor that is contributing significantly to his party’s apparent downward slide in this belt; and one that is likely to get amplified further as polling progresses for the remaining sixth and seventh phases due on March 3 and March 7, respectively. “Unlike the first three phases where you had whole regions dominated by Jats, Muslims, Yadavs or Jatavs, this and the remaining phases have a very diverse mix of castes. There are districts where Brahmins or Thakurs are high in number but there are also multiple backward castes and Dalit communities who collectively outnumber the forward castes. BJP had gained here because many non-Yadav backward castes and non-Jatav Dalits had broken away from the SP and BSP, respectively, and voted in our favour. This time, the SP has formed a caste-based alliance of parties that represent the many backward castes who have huge numbers in this region and so the additional votes we had got from our consolidation in the past are now splitting away,” the leader said.

‘BJP’s social engineering faces collapse’

Harsh Sinha, political analyst and a professor at Gorakhpur University, told The Federal that the BJP is expected to suffer “huge losses” in the remaining phases because “its social engineering has collapsed”. Sinha says the SP-led alliance is finding resonance among “most non-Yadav backward castes due to the coming together of parties like OP Rajbhar’s SBSP and the Krishna Patel-led faction of Apna Dal which hold sway over the Rajbhar and Kurmi communities that have significant presence in this belt; induction of strong caste-leaders like Swami Prasad Maurya into the SP is also dividing the BJP’s hold over Maurya voters… in the Dalit community too, though a majority of Jatavs are still rallying behind Mayawati except in some urban centres where they may vote for the SP, other sub-groups like Pasis and Valmikis are also breaking away from BJP and going to the SP… the huge mass of people who were searching for a vehicle for change are now convinced that Akhilesh’s cycle is that vehicle.”

Leaders like OP Rajbhar, a former ally of the BJP, have also been telling voters from the electorally important Rajbhar community that while the BJP is seeking their votes in the name of Suheldev (an icon for this backward community, who is believed to have defeated Ghaznavid invaders from Turkey in battle in Bahraich over a millennium ago), the party had done little for the community during its five-year tenure and had repeatedly insulted their leaders.

Also read: In UP, BJP hopes lie in splintering of Dalit and Muslim votes

Faint glimmer of hope

In districts like Shrawasti, Bahraich, Gonda and Chitrakoot, which the BJP had swept in 2017, the saffron party believed that its infusion of populist measures – widening the social/financial security net through various direct benefit transfers and distribution of free ration during the COVID pandemic – had created a vote bank that would transcend traditional caste-based poll patterns.

“This is the only reason why the party may still hold on to some seats in this part of Awadh and the Poorvanchal districts but the laabharthi (beneficiary) pitch is not working to the advantage of the BJP to the extent that the party hoped for… these are districts that have extreme poverty and have consistently ranked at the bottom of every human resource, social or financial indicator… five or 10 kg of free ration may feed small or medium-sized families; DBT schemes may give them some money but with no jobs and spiralling prices none of these help in alleviating their problems… SP is already promising to continue all welfare schemes, including free ration, and also introducing new schemes besides filling up lakhs of vacancies in government jobs,” Ram Kumar, a Dalit activist, told The Federal.