Exit Polls put RJD on Bihar throne, give BJP edge in MP, UP, Gujarat

The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan seems to have an advantage over the JDU-led NDA in Bihar in the elections for the 243-member Assembly that concluded on Saturday, according to exit polls.

The third and final phase of voting on Saturday recorded a voter turnout of 56.02 per cent at 6 pm for 78 constituencies spread across 19 districts.

Chirag Paswan’s LJP is unlikely to create a big impact and a lot of excitement surrounding the young leader’s direct attack on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.

The majority mark is 122.

The Times Now-CVoter exit poll has predicted a hung house with NDA expected to get 116 seats, while the Grand Alliance of the RJD, the Congress and the Left parties, is likely to get 120. The LJP will get only one seat, while others are likely to get six, according to the exit poll.

The Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat poll said the RJD alliance will get a clear majority (118-138 seats), while the NDA will have to contend with 91-117 seats. Chirag Paswan’s LJP may get 5 to 8 seats only, with others getting 3-6.

The NDTV’s initial poll of polls (an average of the above two exit polls) shows that the Rashtriya Janata Dal will come back to power with the young Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagatbandhan set to get 124 seats and Nitish Kumar’s NDA to get 110 seats.

The country’s first full-fledged election held in the backdrop of COVID-19 pandemic concluded at 6pm on Saturday (November 7). The first phase of the voting took place on October 28 and the second phase on November 3. The results will be known on November 10.

I think these exit polls results will turn out to be incorrect & NDA will form Govt in Bihar: @ManojTiwariMP, MP, BJP tells Rahul Shivshankar, Navika Kumar & Padmaja Joshi. | #Nov10WithTimesNow pic.twitter.com/dttGy4ouPV

— TIMES NOW (@TimesNow) November 7, 2020

An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken soon after a voter walks out after casting his or her vote. It is considered as an indicator of which party will form the government.

The exit polls for the bypolls in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh have indicated that the BJP will consolidate its presence in the three states.

According to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government in Madhya Pradesh will survive with the BJP likely to bag 16-18 Assembly seats. The Congress is estimated to bag 10-12 of the total 28 seats that went for by-election.

The Times Now-CVoter exit poll, too, gives a thumbs up to the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government. According to it, the BJP will win 17 seats and the Congress 11.

The by-elections in MP were held as 28 seats fell vacant after sitting Congress MLAs, led by Jyotiraditya Scindia, resigned and joined the BJP, leading to the collapse of the Kamal Nath-led state government.

The BJP could bag five to six bypoll seats in Uttar Pradesh, according to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll. In addition, the Samajwadi Party could win 1-2 seats and the BSP 0-1 Assembly seats where bypolls were held.

Related News: Why jobs could override caste by small margin as Bihar votes in phase I

In Gujarat where eight seats went to bypolls, the BJP with a vote share of 49 per cent is likely to win 6-7 of the Assembly seats. Similarly, the Congress, with a vote share of about 40 per cent in Gujarat, could bag 0-1 seats.

Warning signs for BJP in Bihar?

With exit polls suggesting voters’ preference for Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD, this election could be a warning sign for the BJP as a decrease in vote share doesn’t augur well for the party ruling at the Centre.

Voters seem to have been swayed by the UPA’s campaign based on unemployment in the state and the RJD’s promise of 10 lakh jobs.

Unemployment and development were the biggest issues for voters. Interestingly, it is advantage RJD in Seemanchal but the NDA has managed to bag double-figure seats in the region that has a sizeable Muslim population, according to the exit polls.