Tamils are like this only — contrarian, rebellious and standing alone

As reports of the Left’s near-total decimation in the elections came, a Leftist intellectual muttered, “You have to give it to Tamil Nadu. Must be Periyar and his innate rebelliousness…” and trailed off.

Also read: Why Tamil Nadu remains a tough nut to crack for the BJP

Leftists from Kerala used to poke fun at Dravidianism. They called it a fake ideology that spawned ridiculous symbolism, theatrical politics, and hero worship. But their own bastion has been shaken in this election. The Congress-led UDF has swept the polls in Kerala and it was its turn to win, yet the BJP has retained its voteshare in Kerala, and the Sabarimala issue has to an extent reset the political discourse in that state.

Across India, the BJP has retained its strongholds and expanded into areas it was not strong, barring say Jammu & Kashmir. But Tamil Nadu is a holdout. The BJP lost the lone seat it had won contesting as part of a smaller alliance in 2014. The campaign was explicitly conducted by the AIADMK-BJP-led alliance as a mandate for Modi. From the chief minister to local BJP candidates, everyone projected the election as a vote for Modi. Just as in other states, the BJP tried to foreground the central welfare schemes such as Mudra loans. Yet, the combine lost. The DMK-Congress-led alliance swept the Lok Sabha polls in Tamil Nadu.

In northern India, the Modi welfare schemes as well as its national security plank were its big campaign themes. And they seem to have resonated with voters there. In Tamil Nadu, the national security plank did not quite resonate with voters and the AIADMK-BJP-led alliance soft-pedalled it.

This is not the first time Tamil Nadu has been contrarian, going against the dominant national trend in elections. Some put this to an innate rebelliousness of Tamils, citing iconoclast and rationalist Periyar’s influence. They cite the various agitations that broke out in Tamil Nadu in the last few years, such as Sterlite, jallikattu and protests against gas exploration projects in Thanjavur. What has also riled voters is that the Modi government has not implemented in its full spirit the final order of the Cauvery tribunal that would have automatically secured Tamil Nadu its share of the river water. The Modi government insistence on NEET has not won it any friends either.

K Pandiarajan, minister in the AIADMK government, acknowledges the strength of the anti-Modi narrative that Leftists, Congress and DMK have created in the State. He told The Federal that the BJP has been portrayed anti-Tamil and as a north Indian party, and attributed it to the poor showing of the alliance in the Lok Sabha election.

Modi’s personality jars with Tamils where macho men or those who project macho don’t get endorsement. In Tamil Nadu, the most severe troll attention has been heaped on male leaders who try to project a bigger image and talk big. Vijayakanth and Vaiko have been skewered mercilessly on the internet while women leaders who project power, such as Indira Gandhi and Jayalalithaa, are accepted in the state.

Modi’s personality and the anti-Modi narrative are only a few of the problems the BJP has been up against. It also appears that local factors weighed against the BJP.

In Tamil Nadu, quite often, the alliance strength and the kazhagam that voters prefer at that moment outweigh other considerations in Lok Sabha elections. For instance, after Emergency, Indira Gandhi was rejected across India. In Tamil Nadu, however, she aligned with the newly formed ADMK of MGR who had launched a successful campaign against the alleged corruption of the DMK. And voters gave her a thumping government. They once again gave the alliance a thumbs up when Indira Gandhi returned to power in 1980. She had by then aligned with the DMK. But in the Assembly elections that followed, voters brought back the MGR government.

If the choice of the Tamil Nadu voter matters at the centre, he aligns with the rest of the nation. For instance, in 1996, 1998 and 2004, TN parties played an important role at the Centre.

If there is a dominant national trend, however, the Tamil Nadu voters seem to want to stand out. In 2014, they junked the Modi idea, going against the national current, and supported Jayalalithaa. This time Stalin, too, has received a massive endorsement as a leader. The DMK-Congress alliance has swept the Lok Sabha elections but in the crucial by-polls to 22 Assembly seats, the voters have allowed the AIADMK government to survive on the thinnest of majority possible.

Political vacuum persists in Tamil Nadu

This Lok Sabha election was supposed to have answered the question of who will fill the vacuum in the state created by the deaths of Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa. And voters have answered that question only partially. In the first election the DMK has fought under Stalin, the party has performed creditably. By not voting for the DMK in the Assembly seats, but voting for the party in the corresponding Lok Sabha constituencies, voters have shown that they are not yet convinced of Stalin’s ability to step into his father’s shoes.

All of India is under the Indian Caesar’s suzerainty. Well, not quite all of India. The indomitable Tamils continue to stand out even if they don’t have a chief yet.