How ‘kingmaker’ Chandrababu Naidu is caught in a web of intrigues

Once seen as a “kingmaker” in national politics, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu is back to playing a role in the efforts to stitch together an anti-BJP coalition. But on the home turf he is facing a plethora of challenges. Increasing desertions in Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP), growing public resentment over non-fulfillment of major poll promises, rampant corruption, shoddy administration and a resurgent opposition are adding to his woes.

At this juncture Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy, president of the opposition YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) – who completed an 11-month-long, 3,650-km padayatra in the state – appears to have emerged stronger. Jagan is ahead in the perception battle as someone who has taken the lead in the fight for special category status for the state, an emotive issue ahead of the general elections. The promised new capital city of Amaravati is still on the drawing board. While private educational institutions have come up, the Andhra Pradesh government is still working from temporary offices. Meanwhile, resentment is brewing in the backward Rayalaseema region over alleged neglect. Elections to the Andhra Pradesh Assembly will be held along with the Lok Sabha polls in April-May.

Jumping the ship

Naidu’s TDP has been facing steady desertions. Last month, Avanti Srinivas, the party’s MP from Anakapalli and legislator A Krishna Mohan crossed over to the YSRCP. TDP leaders appear to have sensed a growing anti-incumbency against the government.

The opposition has been harping on Naidu’s failure to keep promises made in 2014. Among them is a loan waiver of up to ₹1.50 lakh, including waiver of loans taken by women in Development of Women and Children in Rural Areas (DWCRA). According to YSRCP spokesperson Bhumana Karunakar Reddy, the total loans Naidu agreed to waive was ₹87,000 crore in 2014 but the the TDP government has repaid only ₹15,000 crore so far. However, state agriculture minister S Chandrasekhar Reddy said ₹8,000 crore will be repaid in tranches of ₹4,000 crore each over the next couple of months.

Political flip-flops

Nurtured on a staple diet of anti-Congressism for decades, the TDP fought against Congress in every election, since it was founded by the late N T Rama Rao over three-and-half decades ago. However, the changed political dynamics post the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh and following the NDA government’s denial of special status to the state, has prompted Naidu to join hands with the Congress to take on the common enemy – Narendra Modi.

The YSRCP has been claiming that its sustained campaign on the special status issue had forced the TDP to follow suit and walk out of the NDA in March last year.

There is growing resentment on the ground against Naidu for joining hands with the Congress which is still widely blamed for the state’s bifurcation in 2014, which many feel left Andhra Pradesh at a clear disadvantage following the loss of Hyderabad to Telangana. As a result, the Congress did not win a single seat in 2014. Both Naidu and the Congress, in fact, have clarified that they do not have a tie-up in the state and their cooperation is only at the national level.

After 2004, this is the first time that the TDP is contesting without a pre-poll alliance. After losing power in the combined Andhra Pradesh in 2004, Naidu had severed links with the saffron party and moved closer to the Left parties, only to return to the saffron fold ahead of the 2014 general elections.

In neighbouring Telangana, where elections were held in December, the TDP-Congress alliance along with Left parties failed to click, especially for the TDP which was completely routed.

‘Son’ stroke

After targeting the Congress for decades for pursuing dynasty politics, Naidu has been grooming his minister-son Nara Lokesh as his political successor. However, Lokesh has been a disaster, both as a minister and as a political leader. He has often been a butt of jokes in the social media.

Pre-poll sops

Facing a more combative opposition, Naidu announced a string of sops and doles on the eve of elections for various sections of people, followed by a farm investment support scheme of
₹10,000 per year announced on February 13. On January 25, Naidu announced free smartphones and ₹10,000 each for 93 lakh DWCRA women. The government has also allotted nearly 7 lakh two-bedroom houses for poor beneficiaries in urban and rural areas.

Pawan Kalyan factor

A major worry for the TDP is which side the 17% kapu community would vote this time around. Actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan has a wide following among the community, particularly the youth. His Jana Sena Party had supported the TDP-BJP combine in the 2014 elections. However, it is contesting the polls on its own this time and is likely to split the votes which can potentially harm the TDP.

In a bid to woo the kapus, the government had passed a resolution in December 2017 giving 5% reservation to the community in education and employment. However, it still remains on paper as it has not been made into legislation by Parliament.

Special category issue 

Naidu is facing the flak for failing to get special category status for the state, a promise made during the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh in 2014. The idea was to handhold the new Andhra Pradesh as it would lose a significant amount of revenue as a result of Hyderabad going to Telangana – the new state that came into existence on June 2, 2014.

Special category states would get funds from centrally-sponsored schemes and external aid in the ratio of 90 per cent grants and 10% loans, while other states get 30 per cent of their funds as grants. Besides, they would be given tax breaks and excise duty concessions to attract industries.

However, the 14th Finance Commission did away with the distinction between general and special category states since it had taken into account the level of backwardness of states in the proposed transfer of funds to states. It recommended higher devolution of central taxes to the states. The idea was that adequate resources would be allocated through tax devolution and grants to address interstate inequalities. The special category status was therefore restricted to the three hill states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand and those in the Northeast. It was also decided that a revenue deficit grant would be provided for certain states for which devolution alone would be insufficient. Andhra Pradesh was one of the states that were to be given a revenue deficit grant.

While ruling out special status to Andhra Pradesh in the light of the 14th Finance Commission report, BJP leaders, however, maintained that the Centre was committed to granting the monetary equivalent of a special status to the state and would bear 90 per cent of the share of schemes sponsored by the Centre.