Kerala: It's clean sweep UDF; BJP may hit nought
South-flung Kerala’s usually diminutive stature on the national political scene changed drastically during ‘election 2019.’ The keenly watched political issues in the state, which voted in a single phase on April 23, were two – Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s tryst with the hill district of Wayanad and the Right wingers’ raking up of the Sabarimala women’s entry dispute.
The Exit Polls, released by at least 13 media houses at the end of the seventh phase of polling on May 19, predict a clear sweep by the UDF in the 20-seat State. The India Today-My Axis exit poll predicted 15-16 seats for the Congress; 0-1 for the BJP; and 3 for the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF).
The usually spot-on Chanakya polls said the UDF could win up to 16 seats, while giving three for the LDF, and one for the BJP. The only ray-of-hope predication for the LDF, which is the ruling front in the state, is the News 18-ISOS polls. It says the LDF will win 11-13 seats, the UDF 7-9, and the BJP-1.
The electorate’s rather strong leaning towards the Congress-led UDF could be indicative of the strong anti-incumbency faced by the LDF and the CPM in the state. The LDF’s active endorsement of its agenda of political extermination of opponents, in spite of the general push on development, has apparently worked to the ruling front’s disadvantage. The CPM banked on its strong cadre-base in the state, especially after thousands of women lined up on the streets for the party’s women’s wall. The party probably failed to realize that its grip over the trade unions, which mobilized women for the wall, would not convert to votes during an election.
Rahul factor
The usually disjointed cadres of the Congress were enthused by Rahul Gandhi’s choice of Wayanad. This had an effect on another keenly fought contest in the southern part of Kerala too – one between Shashi Tharoor and BJP leader Kummanam Rajasekharan. Tharoor had, on many occasions, mentioned discreetly that Congress cadres were not campaigning for him. The entry of the Congress president made it a life-and-death situation for the ranks as it was more of a prestige issue for them.
BJP’s plight
The BJP’s bid to make significant gains seems to be dashed this time too. With just once seat being predicted, the saffron party may need to comprehend that it takes more than Sabarimala rhetoric and chest thumping to make inroads in a state that boasts of Europe-like social indices.
