Tricky Vokkaliga base, wily Amit Shah hinder DK Shivakumar’s CM dreams

The key factor for the electoral future of both the Congress and the JDS in the Old Mysuru region is Vokkaliga vote base. The Vokkaliga base is important for the CM aspirants of the community, DK Shivakumar and HD Kumaraswamy, as well as for Amit Shah’s strategies to form the BJP government in Karnataka again.

While Kumaraswamy is strengthening his base in the Old Mysuru region through his Pancha Rathna Yatra, and the BJP is planning out its strategies to make use of the divide in the Vokkaliga vote base, KPCC chief DK Shivakumar is facing several challenges to fulfil his dreams of becoming chief minister through his Vokkaliga trump card.

JDS is stronger than Congress in drawing Vokkaliga votes, but the community has a record of supporting a party if its CM candidate is one of their leaders. For instance, they supported the Congress during SM Krishna’s tenure as KPCC chief in 1999 and he went on to become the chif minister.

Also read: Why Bommai’s caste category rejig will keep Panchamasalis, Vokkaligas happy, for now

Congress tried to adopt the same strategy and made Vokkaliga leader DK Shivakumar the KPCC chief in 2020. However, the political atmosphere has changed from SM Krishna’s time. The Janata Dal government had several internal rifts, and it was divided into ‘Secular’ and ‘United’ teams. There were huge anti-incumbency factors, and SM Krishna took the KPCC post from N Dharam Singh. There was no leader to question SM Krishna, and Dharam Singh and Mallikarjuna Khagre sought to remain loyal to the party rather than demand leadership. And thus, the Vokkaligas saw their leader in SM Krishna and helped him become CM. But the situation right now is not favouring DKS, as there is a stronger OBC leader in the party — Siddaramaiah.

Siddaramaiah’s chances

When DK Shivakumar became the KPCC chief, Siddaramaiah was not in a position to claim the CM’s post even if the party came to power again. The party lost his leadership in 2018, and he has been enjoying the post of Opposition Leader in the Assembly. Though Siddaramaiah’s supporters claimed that he could become the CM again, the chances were bleak. But his birthday bash at Davangere proved his leadership again and lowered the chances of DK Shivakumar becoming the CM.

Party insiders feel the support for DK Shivakumar from party MLAs and leaders is not strong, while Siddaramaiah has the bigger fan-following and support.

DKS became a friend-turned-foe for HDK when the latter became CM in the JDS-Congress coalition government in 2018. He planned to expand his base from his home turf Kanakapura to the Old Mysuru region, but he did not get any support from the Gowda family and the ambitions fell flat.

Also read: 2023 Karnataka polls: Amit Shah sets poll pitch to woo Vokkaligas in Old Mysuru

Shah’s strategies

These factors have made BJP veteran Amit Shah strategise accordingly. Sources within the party say that the wily leader plans to polarise the Vokkaliga votes towards the JDS and help the party cross its 40 MLAs. This report has left DK Shivakumar a worried man.

According to the electoral strategy, the BJP is trying to grab the Vokkaliga vote base by developing R Ashok and Dr CN Ashwath Narayan as strong Vokkaliga leaders. The party has tried to make use of Kempegowda, who built modern Bengaluru, and unveiled his 108-ft-tall statue at the Bengaluru airport.

But all its efforts went to waste when it neglected former PM HD Deve Gowda for the BIA function. Thus, the BJP leaders in Delhi are said to have understood that it will be a big mistake to neglect Deve Gowda’s popularity among the Vokkaliga base.

The BJP might just snatch the Vokkaliga vote base of JDS and Congress, but the current local JDS MLS reportedly wants to join BJP, making a chance for the Congress. Obviously, the BJP does not want that to happen because its plan is to polarise the Vokkaliga votes towards the JDS.

By making the JDS stronger in the Old Mysuru region, the BJP will aim for a fractured mandate if not a majority. If that happens, the BJP can implement ‘Operation Lotus’ as it had already done in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. The ‘Maharashtra Model’ of dividing the Congress is another possibility.

Also read: With Deve Gowda faux pas, Ashwath Narayan ruins BJP’s Vokkaliga gameplan

According to BJP sources, the fortnightly party surveys show bigger chances for the Congress in the coming Assembly elections because of various factors. One, the AHINDA vote base is leaning stronger towards the Congress, and there are several anti-incumbency factors for the ruling BJP government.

DKS’s challenges

However, DKS’s challenges are more from Siddaramaiah and HD Kumaraswamy in the Old Mysuru region, and he can’t judge the BJP’s moves. Besides, he is facing legal challenges from the CBI, IT, and ED.

Shah, in his recent visit to Karnataka, blasted JDS more than Congress in the Vokkaliga base Mandya. That came as a surprise since rumours on the “friendship” between BJP and JDS for the upcoming elections were doing the rounds. The rumours became stronger after Deve Gowda met Narendra Modi in Delhi. Deve Gowda also attended a government programme of KMF along with Shah, and a few hours later, Shah made a statement against the Gowda family. DK Shivakumar understands this strategy of Shah, which has increased his worries.

At the same time, HD Kumaraswamy has never been quiet, and he and his team are focussing on the Old Mysuru belt and reaching the community through his Pancha Rathna Yatra for many days.

Also, according to sources, Deve Gowda is the man behind the Bommai government’s move to bring Vokkaligas into the Backward Class 2 C category. Deve Gowda, who recently met PM Modi, requested the latter to bring Kunchitigas (Vokkaliga sub-caste) to the Central OBC list.

All these have made DK Shivakumar wake up and smell the coffee. Last week, he held a meeting with Vokkaliga leaders to talk about pooling community voters towards the Congress and holding a Vokkaliga convention in the Old Mysore constituencies to bring the Congress to power in the wake of the assembly elections.

Also read: BJP faces Vokkaliga hurdle in Karnataka even as Cong, JD(S) enjoy edge

In a meeting led by DK Shivakumar in a private hotel in Bengaluru, more than 25 prominent Congress leaders, including former ministers Krishna Byregowda, Cheluvarayaswamy, and two JDS MLAs (expelled from the party) also participated. They mainly discussed gaining the support of Vokkaligas, who are traditional voters of JDS. There was a discussion about how the party candidates should win in districts like Mandya and Hassan, which are dominated by Vokkaligas.

Anyhow, DKS can no longer afford to strategize to defeat Siddaramaiah to become CM. Instead, he must go with him for the sake of a Congress win. Otherwise, Amit Shah-Deve Gowda’s combined strategies may spoil Congress’s chances in the upcoming assembly polls.