Why Naidu thinks it is a good idea to join forces with Pawan Kalyan

Andhra Pradesh for long has remained home to bipolar politics since the inception of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in the early 1980s. Even after the state’s bifurcation in 2014, a similar situation prevailed upto the general elections in 2019. After the Congress disappeared from the scene because of its role in presiding over the state’s division, the  Jaganmohan Reddy-led Yuvajana Sramika Rytu Congress (YSRC), and the TDP continued to be the main political contenders in the state.

But the next election in 2024 may seemingly just throw up a different scenario in which Tollywood hero Pawan Kalyan is all set to play a decisive role. The rise of Pawan Kalyan or PK indicates a shift in the dynamics of Andhra Pradesh (AP) politics. On October 18, N Chandrababu Naidu of the TDP, set aside his stature as the longest-serving Chief Minister of AP and the current leader of Opposition in the AP Assembly and reached out to Pawan in Vijayawada seeking his active role in a “save democracy campaign” against the Jaganmohan Reddy government.

This one-to-one-solidarity meeting was the first of its kind after the TDP and Pawan’s Jana Sena had parted ways and fought the elections independently in 2019.

TDP-JSP alliance once again?

Obviously, such an overture by TDP has given credence to the public perception of a realignment in both political parties ahead of the elections.

After the poll debacle in 2019, Jana Sena chief broke ties with the Left parties and aligned with the BJP. The actor has been constantly asking for a “roadmap” from the BJP’s top brass on their approach towards the YSR Congress government. But, the BJP failed to respond and Kalyan began to chart his own course. Notably, the Pawan-Naidu meeting took place in this backdrop.

Also read: For 2024 AP poll, Jagan looking to project father YSR as trump card

Pawan’s direct confrontation with Jagan’s Visakha Gharjana show on October 16 has brought the actor onto the centrestage, as a champion capable of taking on the mighty Jaganmohan Reddy government – a task even the TDP as a principal Opposition party– had failed to accomplish.

In the last 2019 AP Assembly elections, Pawan Kalyan had suffered a crushing defeat. Though, he contested from the two Assembly segments – Bhimavaram and Gajuwaka, and he lost both. When his party fielded candidates in 137 out of 175 segments, it lost deposits in 121 places.

Pawan in image makeover

But the actor did not lose his heart. Instead, he rose like a phoenix from the ashes to rebuild his image as a gutsy leader attacking the Jagan Reddy government on issues ranging from sand mining, a spate of suicides by tenant farmers, infrastructure issues like roads and the problems of fishermen. In the process, he braved trolls from the Jagan’s camp with jibes over being a ‘nitya pellikoduku’ (bridegroom forever) and for his ‘polygamous’ nature.

The Pawan factor throws up the prospect of the realignment of political parties such as the JSP, BJP and the TDP once again. Though Naidu and Pawan hinted at forging an alliance, the BJP has remained silent on the development, maintaining that Pawan is only its ally.

Also read: Jagan’s Mission 175 leaves Chandrababu struggling to save Kuppam turf

Trigger for new-found love

What prompted Naidu to reach out to Pawan? The TDP leader has been lying low after his party’s rout in the previous election. He still finds it hard to come to terms with his historic blunder of losing Pawan. After all, Naidu with a narrow margin scraped through the first election held in the truncated state after the division in 2014. The fringe votes that Pawan garnered because of his film glamour and his affiliation to the numerically strong Kapu community had helped Naidu. Without Pawan on his side in the next election in 2019, Naidu’s party heavily suffered.

A poll analyst who worked for the TDP in that election told The Federal that the party lost over 40 assembly segments with margins ranging from 1,000 to 5,000 votes and the losses were attributed to the party’s alienation from Pawan. Naidu’s son Nara Lokesh was one of the victims. Lokesh, who fought the election from Mangalagiri, situated right in the heart of the capital region, thinking it was a safe bet, suffered a defeat by a margin of 5,337 votes. Incidentally, CPI in alliance with the Jana Sena, had polled 10,135 votes in the same constituency.

Sample surveys conducted across the state by the TDP in the month of September, according to the anonymous analyst quoted earlier, revealed that the so-called P-factor (read Pawan’s factor), will decide the fortunes of the TDP in 40-45 assembly segments in the coming election. His influence is more decisive in east and west Godavari, Guntur and Krishna districts, which make up around 70 Assembly segments.

“It’s now or never for the TDP. If we want to win the election this time, a tie-up with Pawan is inevitable”, said a senior TDP leader. Recalling how the TDP and Pawan’s party had fought individually in the last election, the leader warned that it would be disastrous for both parties if they repeated the same situation.

How Naidu missed the bus in 2009?

In 2009, Pawan’s elder brother and mega star Chiranjeevi and Jayaprakash Narayana, a retired civil servant, played a role in Naidu’s election debacle. JP or Jayaprakash Narayana and Naidu happen to be from the same Kamma community and JP dented not only Naidu’s vote bank from his community but also took away urban voters who were admirers of Naidu for his initiatives in infrastructure, urban development and IT, during his tenure as the CM.

Similarly, most of the Kapus voted for their caste icon Chiranjeevi. Thus, the presence of JP and Chiranjeevi led to a massive division in the Opposition vote, upsetting Naidu’s apple-cart and helping YS Rajasekhar Reddy of the Congress (Jagan’s father) to return to power.

Also read: Why ‘kingmaker’ Chandrababu Naidu finds it tough to forge an alliance now

Who will this alliance benefit?

Though, this Naidu-Pawan tie-up may be beneficial to TDP, an alliance with Pawan at a time when the actor’s image is on the rise may stunt TDP’s growth as an independent powerhouse, pointed out Vikram Poola, an analyst to The Federal. Poola was once associated with Chiranjeevi during his Praja Rajyam days.

IYR Krishna Rao, former chief secretary of the Andhra Pradesh government with right wing leanings, tweeted that the prospect of Pawan Kalyan emerging as the chief ministerial candidate of the BJP-Jana Sena alliance in the upcoming Assembly elections, will end up delivering a fractured verdict. But the social media wing of the TDP made light of such a proposition, accusing the former bureaucrat of trying to scuttle the chances of the TDP-JSP alliance.

Pawan himself in a media interaction after the alleged police excesses on his party workers in Visakhapatnam hinted that he could not afford to sail with the BJP, considering its bonhomie with Jagan on the national political scene.