In MP, Kamal blooms as BJP hesitates to pull off a Karnataka-style coup

The joke in Madhya Pradesh these days is that the BJP is programmed to compulsively vote for Kamal—a reference to the happenstance of the chief minister and the party’s symbol both having the same moniker.

This piece of easy witticism has taken off after the unexpected support CM Kamal Nath got from two legislators of the BJP during a vote on a Bill seeking amendments in the criminal law. The government has the support of only 120 members in the Assembly. But when votes in support of the Bill were counted on Wednesday (July 24), the Congress was pleasantly surprised by two additional votes.

Later, BJP legislator Narayan Tripathi came out in the open as one of the members who had supported the government. He claimed the other closet supporter of the government is his party colleague Sharad Kol Tripathi, who said his support to the government was a sort of “ghar wapsi (home coming)”, a reminder of his earlier innings as a Congress MLA before joining the BJP in 2014. “The Congress is my old home and I am going back to it,” Tripathi said.

In Ian Fleming’s 1964 film Goldfinger, James Bond, when faced with the prospect of being killed by a giant laser, asks: “You expect me to talk?” His adversary Auric Goldfinger replies with a line that’s since acquired cult status: “No, Mr Bond, I expect you to die.”

This line best explains the expectations of the BJP in Madhya Pradesh—for months it has been expecting the Congress government to die, either on its own or through a Karnataka-type operation in the state.

Also read: Buoyed by support from 2 BJP MLAs, Kamal Nath dismisses threat to govt

The BJP’s eagerness is manifest in its recent boast that it is just waiting for a signal from the high command to topple Kamal Nath’s government. Its confidence emerges from the model it has perfected over the past few years by successfully pulling down Congress-led governments through defections and resignations. In theory, the Madhya Pradesh government, propped up by support from an independent, BSP and SP legislators in a hung assembly, is a suitable candidate for a similar coup. But, like Bond, the government just refuses to accede to the BJP’s wish.

Three reasons are cited for the sustained longevity of the government.

One, the CM is keeping his flock happy by sharing the fruits of power. Under his watch, legislators have been given a free hand in transfers, postings and recommendations related to their constituencies. This carte blanche of sorts has kept party MLAs and obviated one of the primary sources of discontent and dissent.

Two, unlike in Karnataka, the CM has a free hand in running the government and is not dependent on allies. This freedom has helped the CM keep fears, insecurities, rivalries and ambitions in check through direct dialogue and crafty distribution of power through appointments in boards, corporations and commissions.

But, the most important reason for the BJP’s inability to pull off a Karnataka-type coup is the division within its own ranks. Unlike BS Yediyurappa, who single-handedly brought down the coalition government in Karnataka, there is nobody in Madhya Pradesh to take charge of a similar operation.

At the moment there are three clear camps within the Madhya Pradesh BJP. One led by former chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, another by party’s national general secretary Kailash Vijayvargia, who is considered close to Amit Shah, and the third by its state unit chief Gopal Bhargava. Neither of these three want to lead an operation to topple the Kamal Nath because of the fear that their rival might become the next CM.

The BJP high command is also not keen to topple Kamal Nath. It is hoping that the government will fall in due course because of the rivalry between the state Congress leaders and the whims of the BSP-SP leaders whose three legislators are supporting it. The BJP’s hand in Karnataka was forced by BS Yediyurappa’s ambitions and haste. But, in MP, the party wants a new leadership to emerge taking its own sweet time.

The support of two BJP legislators in this milieu of wait-and-watch has strengthened the Kamal Nath government. For the moment, it seems the Congress government is not facing any immediate threat to its existence. It will, to quote another Bond title, die another day.