Growing in strength, AAP may give BJP a tough fight in Jammu

Three former Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party (JKNPP) MLAs from Jammu region including the party’s former chairperson Harsh Dev Singh and former state president Balwant Singh Mankotia, three district development council members—TS Tony from Jammu’s Suchetgarh, Sheikh Zaffarullah from Kishtwar’s remote Marwah, and Fayaz Ahmed Naik from Ramban’s Ramsoo-B constituencies—have already joined the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in New Delhi.

Besides former MLAs and DDC members, many Block Development Council members and at least 100 panchayat representatives from both Jammu plains and hills have also joined AAP in New Delhi and Jammu in the recent past.

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“And very soon, five major political figures from Kashmir Valley, including one former MP and four former ministers and legislators, would be entering into the AAP fold,” claimed Syed Salahuddin, AAP’s Kashmir in-charge.

Emerging alternative to regional parties, BJP?

In Kashmir Valley, Salahuddin said, AAP has been emerging as the most loved political force, “where people have been voluntarily joining the party”.

“As we’re sure that this love of people for AAP will turn into votes, we’re also expecting that the high voter turnout in favour of AAP would also increase the overall voting percentage in Kashmir Valley,” he said.

Pertinently, the voter turnout in the 2019 General Elections in Jammu and Kashmir was an  abysmal 29.39 per cent with least 8.76 per cent in Anantnag Lok Sabha constituency.  In the Jammu region, where voting percentage traditionally remains high, “AAP will certainly emerge as a key stakeholder, where BJP has been an entirely unchallenged player so far,” claimed senior journalist and author of Kashmir Conflict and Muslims of Jammu Zafar Choudhary.

He said, after the fall of the last elected government in 2018 in Jammu and Kashmir, and subsequent developments including the reading down of special status of the erstwhile state, all parties other than the BJP stand politically and physically incapacitated in Jammu region.

“But considering the politics of the Union Territory, which is deeply divided around multiple identities, I’m sure the AAP, which has emerged as a new political option to the people, will succeed in creating a political space for itself in Jammu,” Choudhary said.

Asked how many seats he expects the AAP to bag if the party contests Assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir, Choudhary said the party has “fairly good potential, at least better than some high profile regional parties.”

“Their current focus appears to be on Dalits, Sikhs and Jatts. One can get more clarity once they open up to Muslim pockets”.

‘Growing disillusionment with BJP’

Veteran journalist Rehmatullah Rounyal, who had formerly headed the Jammu Bureau of Kashmir Uzma—the largest circulated Urdu daily of Jammu and Kashmir—also believes that AAP can be a new political option for people of Jammu, who feel “cheated” by the BJP on “several fronts”.

Elaborating further, he said thousands of casual workers and daily wagers, who have been hitting the streets since long in favour of their demands, were told by the BJP leadership in Jammu and Kashmir that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would announce something major for them during his visit to Jammu’s Palli Village on April 24 this year.

“The employees were expecting that the prime minister would make an announcement on their regularization but nothing of the sort happened during Modi’s visit,” he said.

“And this has disappointed the employees who voted for BJP in almost all the elections – parliamentary polls, assembly polls, local body polls, and panchayat polls,” Rounyal said.

It is, however, worth mentioning here that a day ahead of Modi’s visit to Palli, the Jammu and Kashmir administration, headed by Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha, raised the minimum wages of casual workers and daily wagers in all government departments from ₹225 per day to ₹300 per day.

“But this announcement didn’t go well among the protesting employees as they were expecting nothing less than regularisation,” claimed the senior journalist.

“More than they are upset with the prime minister, the employees are angry with the Jammu and Kashmir unit of BJP   as, according to them, the saffron party’s regional leadership has failed to project their issues properly with both the central leadership and the LG administration in Jammu and Kashmir,” he added.

Rounyal also believes that with Jammu and Kashmir having a dismal unemployment rate of 46 per cent, the second highest in the country, youth who had voted for the BJP with great enthusiasm, feel “backstabbed”.

“So this vote of youth, protesting employees and a small percentage of vote that would be traditionally polled in favour of valley-based parties including NC, PDP, and national Congress party in Jammu without fulfilling any purpose since 2014, will be automatically polled in favour of AAP if the party succeeds in establishing itself as a strong alternative of BJP,” he said.

AAP’s prospects beyond Jammu? 

Does Arvind Kejriwal’s party have any future in Chenab Valley, Pir Panchal, Kashmir regions?

In Pir Panchal and Chenab Valley regions comprising districts of Rajouri, Poonch, Ramban, Doda, and Kishtwar, Rehmatuallah Rounyal, the former Jammu head of Kashmir Uzma, claims, “AAP has so far failed to ensure joining of any leader of a tall stature”.

“Just a few DDCs, BDCs, and panchayat members wouldn’t help any party win polls in these regions where people have been traditionally voting for the powerful Muftis, Syeds and top leaders of Congress,” asserts Rounyal.

As far as the future of AAP in Kashmir Valley is concerned, the veteran journalist said, “when Article 370 was revoked in the Parliament, AAP vehemently supported the centre. Kashmiris haven’t appreciated this stand of AAP”.

“So, if AAP wants to win the hearts of Kashmiris, it has to further clear its stand on Article 370,” he claims.

‘AAP threat to BJP in Jammu region’

Political pundits in Jammu and Kashmir strongly believe that AAP could emerge as a major threat to the BJP in the Jammu region.

“With their strong presence on social media to tempt the youth and a Delhi model of development to sell, AAP could be a key challenger to BJP in Jammu region, where the latter has started facing anti-incumbency now,” said retired IAS officer KB Jandial, who has worked with different leaders in different regimes in Jammu and Kashmir and is a well-known political analyst of Jammu region.

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Asked the reasons for the suspected anti-incumbency wave, Jandial, referring to the increased presence of bureaucrats from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar on top administrative positions in Manoj Sinha’s administration, said: “The Centre has been trying to extend the Uttar Pradesh and Bihar’s rule to both Jammu as well as Kashmir regions”.

“And the problem is these bureaucrats from other states know nothing about Jammu and Kashmir’s geography, topography and other problems and hence are not ready to help the people of the region. Even the regional BJP and RSS leaders are unhappy with these bureaucrats but they’re not ready to speak, maybe due to some personal reasons.

“This has made the people of Jammu region largely disappointed with the BJP,” Jandial said.

“And to fill this political void created by the BJP, AAP seems ready in Jammu and Kashmir and the party has the potential to take BJP head on,” added the former PSC member.

In particular, Jandial said, “AAP’s model of providing freebies to the common man has made the party highly acceptable in the Northern region. Who doesn’t want free electricity, free water, better healthcare, and better educational institutions in the Jammu region?”

In Kashmir region as well, he said, AAP has the potential to gain as “Kashmiris don’t vote for BJP fearing threat to their lands, demography, and other things. And they are now fed up with traditional NC, PDP and Congress as well”.

“So, AAP has a chance to fill the political void in the valley. But that would be possible only if AAP succeeds in joining some top leaders of Kashmir into the party fold,” he said.

Why Kejriwal’s visit is vital

While the AAP chief and Delhi Chief Minister won’t be visiting Jammu and Kashmir anytime soon, political analysts and top journalists of the UT believe the party stands to gain if Kejriwal choses to visit the UT.

“The Delhi CM wouldn’t be visiting the Union Territory anytime soon,” told Balwant Singh Mankotia, former MLA and state president of Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party.

“Most probably, Kejriwal would visit Jammu and Kashmir after the announcement of the Assembly polls in the UT,” the former NPP leader said, who has been given the responsibility of creating a new cadre for the AAP in Jammu region.

“Before Kejriwal’s visit, our local leadership has been touring different districts and requesting the voter to support a party that doesn’t divide people on the basis of their faith, and that believes in providing better education, healthcare, uninterrupted and free power supply to the people. And we’ve been getting massive support,” he said.

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“But after Kejriwal’s visit to the UT, the politics of Jammu and Kashmir would be entirely different,” hoped Mankotia.

Zafar Choudhary, the editor-in-chief of The Dispatch, believes the AAP has a great potential with the kind of politics it has been doing in Delhi, but in a UT like Jammu and Kashmir, AAP must have to put flesh on the skeleton of their idea of Jammu and Kashmir.

“In particular, they have to come clear on what they have in mind for Kashmiris, Dogras, and Jammu’s Muslims,” he said.

(The author is a journalist based in Jammu)