Without Nitish and JD(U), BJP has a tough road ahead in Bihar

The BJP on Tuesday suffered a major setback before 2024 Lok Sabha election when Bihar chief minister and JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar walked out from the NDA to form government with RJD-led grand alliance.

Nitish’s decision to quit the ruling coalition has come at a time when BJP has started making preparations for 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The saffron party is also trying hard to expand its support base and consolidate the party’s position across the country by playing its Hindutva card aggressively.

But Bihar has always been a huge challenge for BJP as it is the only state in the Hindi heartland where the saffron party cannot form the government on its own. BJP has so far failed to promote a leader who can match the stature of Nitish as even senior party leader and former deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi has been sidelined.

Also read: For the BJP, Nitish’s exit came as a big surprise

The advent of a new brand of Hindutva politics has also not helped BJP much as Nitish has strived hard to prevent Bihar from becoming another hotbed of hard Hindutva politics even when he was sharing power with the saffron party.

BJP’s attempt to play its Hindutva card in Bihar has not been as successful as in other states. In Bihar, caste and socialist politics still hold the sway, checking the growth of Hindutva politics to a large extent.

BJP’s Hindutva agenda

The BJP has been raising issues like population control policy and Friday holidays in state’s Urdu schools aggressively in its attempt to further the Hindutva agenda but these issues failed to get much traction with the people.

BJP’s firebrand leader and Union minister Giriraj Singh and other BJP leaders have kept demanding enforcement of a population control policy in the state on the pattern of Uttar Pradesh. Nitish holds the view that there is no need for such a law and instead focus should be on women literacy. To counter demand for population control policy by BJP leaders, he has been pointing out that Bihar’s fertility rate has come down after improvement in women’s literacy.

BJP also sought to create a hype over the issue of Urdu government schools observing holidays on Friday. Union minister Giriraj Singh even went to the extent of saying that observing the weekly holiday on Friday instead of Sunday in the government schools is like Sharia law.

“Weekly holiday on Friday is not appropriate, and it is for a particular community under the Sharia law,” he had remarked.

There was a serious difference between BJP and JD(U) over caste census as BJP was not ready for it. BJP agreed to caste census only after Nitish started cosying up to RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav. BJP was apprehensive that caste census would revive Mandal politics, harming prospects of Hindutva politics in the process. Now, the Nitish government is conducting a caste census from its own resources.

BJP’s prospects in LS polls

NDA had won 39 out of the state’s total 40 seats in Bihar in the last Lok Sabha election. While BJP had won all 17 seats, JD (U) emerged victorious on 16 seats out of the 17 it contested. The remaining six seats were won by the Lok Janshakti Party.

“Now with the JD(U) returning to the grand alliance, NDA will have to work hard to win even 10 seats in Bihar in the 2024 Lok Sabha election,” remarked a political analyst.

Presently, the grand alliance comprises 79 MLAs from RJD, 19 from Congress, 12 from CPI (ML) and two MLAs each from CPI and CPI (M). After JD (U) joining it, the grand alliance represents around 40 per cent of votes, making it quite a formidable challenge for any political opponent.

What lies ahead?

Despite its limitations, BJP has remained a strong electoral force. Its vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha election was 23.58 per cent, winning all 17 seats it contested. In the 2020 Bihar assembly election, BJP’s vote share was 19.46 per cent, winning 74 seats. It had emerged as the second-largest party after RJD which won 75 seats.

In Bihar, there are three major political forces — BJP, JD(U) and RJD — and when any two enter alliance, the future of the third political party gets bleak.

So, the BJP faces a tough challenge in Bihar but it can bounce back and it largely depends on how much the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi works in the state.

Modi has huge support, but how much Hindutva politics would be able to make a dent in the caste-ridden Bihar is a question which has no easy answer.

Also read: JDU, Left hail Nitish for breaking away with BJP

“Bihar faces a tough challenge in Bihar as the caste politics has always taken precedence over every other issue,” remarked a political analyst on the condition of anonymity.

BJP’s future will also depend on how efficient the governance grand alliance will provide in Bihar. When the grand alliance came to power last time in 2015, both RJD and JD(U) could not form and run the government up to the people’s expectations. At that time, RJD had won 80 seats and JD(U) 71 seats. But there is a huge gap between both parties now as RJD has 79 MLAs against JD(U)’s 45.