Caste census: Nitish’s dalliance with Tejashwi has BJP on the backfoot

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar paid Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) back in its own coin after nearly two years by using his allegedly growing proximity with Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav as a political weapon to persuade the saffron party to attend an all-party meeting on caste-based census.

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly election, the BJP had reportedly used LJP leader Chirag Paswan to affect the prospects of JD(U) candidates.

LJP candidates had cut into Paswan and upper caste votes, resulting in JD(U)’s defeat in at least 25 seats. Nitish now seems to have played the same trick with the BJP vis-à-vis Tejashwi Yadav.

It only shows how Nitish, considered as Chanakya of Bihar, can outmanoeuvre the saffron party even when it has only 45 MLAs against BJP’s 77.

As a result of Nitish’s moves, a host of senior BJP leaders, including state party president Sanjay Jaiswal and deputy chief minister Tarkishore Prasad, expressed their party`s willingness to attend the all-party meeting on the caste-based census, scheduled on June 1, despite its initial inhibition.

The BJP and its ideological mentor, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), want to tread cautiously on issues like caste-based census and reservations. They feel that these matters divide Hindu society at a time when the BJP is aggressively pursuing its Hindutva agenda.

Anxious moments for the BJP

Nitish caused BJP anxious moments by displaying unusual bonhomie with Tejashwi Yadav during back-to-back two Iftars in April. It gave rise to speculation that some political re-alignment in Bihar was in the offing.

The relationship between Nitish and Tejashwi became a subject of intense speculation later when both leaders closed ranks on the issue of caste census, virtually isolating BJP in the process.

These developments were followed by CBI raids on the premises of RJD supremo Lalu Prasad, his wife Rabri Devi and daughter Misa Bharti. The raids were conducted at a time when Lalu was recuperating at the residence of Misa in New Delhi after being granted bail in a fodder scam case. Lalu’s son and Leader of Opposition Tejashwi was in London to attend a programme.

Also read: CBI action in latest case against Lalu causes political temperature to soar in Bihar

RJD leaders expectedly cried foul, but JD(U) leaders, who earlier used to lap such occasions to launch blistering attacks on Lalu’s family, remained somewhat evasive in their comments. This gave further credence to speculation that something was cooking between the JD(U) and RJD.

“I have no information, nothing to say. Only those involved in the matter can comment,” remarked Nitish, apparently in a bid to underplay the development.

The CBI raids were also seen as a veiled message to Nitish not to grow close to the RJD.

But the talk of Nitish re-joining the grand alliance gained intensity after he called Tejashwi to his residence and held a one-on-one meeting with him for about 45 minutes within 24 hours of the latter’s ultimatum to the CM on the issue of the caste-based census.

Last year, an all-party delegation under the leadership of Nitish met Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the issue of caste census.

Nitish’s insistence on the caste-based census is quite logical as he derives his political strength from Mandal politics and will definitely not want to be seen lagging behind RJD when stakes for both parties on the caste-based census are so high, commented a political analyst.

The Bihar Assembly on February 27, 2020 had unanimously passed a resolution requesting the Centre to hold the caste census. This was the second time when the state assembly had passed such a resolution. The earlier resolution was passed on February 18, 2019.

Why is Nitish important for BJP?

Nitish has been fuming ever since the BJP allegedly pushed his party, JD (U), to the third position in the 2020 Bihar assembly election by using the Chirag Paswan card.

Also read: Nitish Kumar is not going to Rajya Sabha now, say NDA leaders

Though the BJP kept its promise of accepting Nitish as chief minister for another term, but its leaders continue to target him. So much so that BJP MP Chhedi Paswan went to the extent of demanding the CM’s post for a BJP leader for the remaining nearly two-and-a-half years of the NDA rule.

But, despite all such attacks on Nitish by BJP leaders, it is not likely that the saffron party’s central leadership will think of severing ties with the JD(U) ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP had won all 17 seats it contested while the JD (U) prevailed on 16 out of 17 seats it contested. LJP also won all the six seats it contested. In such a situation, BJP will not be inclined to sever ties with Nitish as its main objective is to repeat the 2019 LS election performance in 2024.

So, the BJP will agree to proposals even reluctantly to pre-empt any chance of Nitish once again crossing over to the grand alliance. BJP has already seen how JD (U)-RJD combine had trounced it in 2015 state assembly election despite high-octane campaigning by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

India Today special correspondent Pushya Mitra said that power politics was going on in Bihar NDA currently. He said that Nitish also has limited options as if he joins the opposition camp, he will find it difficult to emerge as a consensusal prime ministerial candidate if the situation so arrives after the 2024 elections.

Odisha chief minister Navin Patnaik is seen as a more credible face, although he is not very active in national politics, Mitra added.

Another political analyst Praveen Bagi said that Nitish would not quit NDA and is only building pressure to keep the BJP under check. Nitish wants that the BJP should bring changes according to his wishes, Bagi said, adding that there is a possibility of the BJP changing one of its deputy chief ministers or even bringing some new faces into the cabinet.

“This controversy over caste census is a political drama, enacted by Nitish as he wants to keep the BJP under pressure,” Bagi remarked.

RJD, JD (U) rule out possibility of alliance

RJD leader Tejashwi too scotched all speculation over the possibility of realignment with Nitish.

“This is all imaginary. When I went to Delhi to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it was my initiative and not Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s. Does it mean that I am going to have an alliance with the BJP?” Tejashwi shot back when asked about the possibility of RJD-JD(U) re-alliance.

Also read: Lalu returns to Patna amid clamour for caste census, fresh CBI case

On the other hand, JD (U) chief Rajiv Ranjan Singh alias Lalan Singh has ruled out the possibility of his party joining hands with RJD.

He sought to dispel any notion of re-alliance between two parties by asserting that the NDA government would complete its tenure till 2025.

Singh said caste-based census was the need of the hour and there was no politics over it. Caste census should be conducted in Bihar, he said. There should not be any speculation over it, he said, showing his party’s firm stand on it.

JD (U) president said, “It is not proper to judge proximity between two parties on the basis of consensus or differences on certain issues.” His remark only suggests that his party is ready to keep its relationship with BJP alive even while having differences on some issues.